Salary Cap Experts! What's the truth with signing Darko and Vince?

[bhnole 153]

I will take a crack at it.

 

The salary cap is estimated to be around 57 or 58 mill next year.

 

We have nine players under contract for next year (Dwight, Jameer, Hedo, Bogans, Ariza, JJ, Carlos, Augie, and Battie) for around $32 million total.

 

This gives us around $25 mill in cap space. I see no problems getting both Darko and Vince signed with that kind of cap room. We probably would have room to even match any reasonable offers on Diener who is restricted.

 

Now comes the tricky part, Dooling and Garrity have option years for around 3.6 mill a piece. Doolings is a player option and reports have varied on who holds Garrity's the team or him.

 

If those option years are picked up it will knock our available cap to $18 mill. I don't see us being able to sign both at that number.

 

Dooling was expected to opt out and go home to Miami, but D-Steve's mistake last year may have him re-think opting out. If Garrity's is a player option he would be a fool to opt out, if it belongs to the team. He would be quickly cut to create cap space.

 

In the worst case scenario that both Dooling and Garrity come back, we will likely have to move someone to create capspace. Hedo would have to be that guy IMO, his 6.3 mill would give us enough space.

 

In all I think signing them is very doable, even if Otis needs to send off Hedo with Fran's rights to get someone to take him off our hands.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

Based off Hoopshype numbers, going into the offseason, the magic will have $35,301,998 in total salaries, or $31,705,998 if Keyon opts out. This doesn't include resigning Darko, GHill, Garrity, Bo, or Diener.

 

Assuming the CAP raises the same amount it did last season, it would be around 57mil, giving the Magic between 22-25mil in space.

 

That being the case, Darko's contract is tricky. Until the Magic either resign him, or declare that they will not resign him, his contract counts towards the CAP at double it's current rate, which would be 10.4mil. This creates a problem: On the one hand, you wanna re-sign Darko right away to eliminate that hold, but on the other hand, part of the fun of restricted free agents is making other teams waste their cap space with offer sheets, and then resign him at the very end of the offseason(hehehe).

Assuming Darko goes for about 9 million, and the Magic re-sign Ghill for about 3 million, that'll give them between 10-13mil in CAP space, which is likely not enough to sign Carter, and then also fill the newly created holes on the bench at forward and point guard.

Maybe a salary dumping trade(hedo?) would help. Maybe not re-signing Ghill would help. Who knows?

[LJ Magic 0]

Here is my take on the salary cap using RealGM as my source.

 

Orlando's Impending Off-Season

 

Orlando will be on the hook for about $31.5 million in guaranteed contracts before counting the following:

 

1. Garrity can opt out but likely won't. His cap hit is $4 million.

Total Salary = $35.5 million

 

2. Until a decision is made on Darko he will count on the cap at $12.5 million.

Total Salary = $48 million

 

3. Keyon has a right to opt out and if he does he counts on the cap at $7 million until renounced or re-signed.

Total Salary = $55 million

 

4. Grant Hill, like Dooling, will also count on the cap until re-signed or renounced. His cap hit is $17.7 million.

Total salary = $72.7 million

 

5. Fran Vasquez, though he doesn't play for us, will count on the cap at $1.6 million.

Total Salary = $74.3 million.

 

6. Travis Diener will also count at a shade below $1 million until re-signed or renounced.

Total Salary = $75.3 million.

 

Now, let's project what might happen.

 

Most likely Pat Garrity won't opt out of his contract so we are looking at a number starting at $35.5 million. Darko's contract counts at 200% of his prior year salary until he is re-signed or traded. Otis will most likely look to re-sign him quickly as his cap status prevents us from signing another star until a new contract is negotiated. Let's say he gets $10 million a year for arguments sake. That puts our cap number at $45.5 million. Keyon Dooling will probably opt out and be renounced quickly. That way $7 million doesn't count against the cap. Grant Hill will definitely be renounced as his cap hit is $17+ million. Fran Vasquez will likely be traded during the draft as he is taking up $1.6 million in cap space despite not playing. Diener may be re-signed or renounced but lets say for now that his cap hold of $1 million sticks. That gives us total salary expense of $46.5 million. The projected salary cap is anywhere from $55 million to $57.5 million. That means we could have anywhere from $8 million to $12 million to spend depending on what Darko is re-signed for and what the cap actually is. The key is re-signing Darko quickly before the other good free agents get signed. I hope this helps.

[bhnole 153]

quote:

Originally posted by LJ Magic:

 

5. Fran Vasquez, though he doesn't play for us, will count on the cap at $1.6 million.

Total Salary = $74.3 million.

 

 

Fran does not count against our cap because he is under contract oversea's. Unsigned 1st round picks only count if they not currently under contract to another professional club.

 

I think his rights will be moved with Hedo as incentive for someone to take on Hedo's salary and give us more room now and down the road when we are getting close to the luxury tax.

[SmackDaddy 30]

Isn't this the second such article that Brian Schmitz has written that demonstartes his complete lack of understanding regarding the salary cap?

 

Anyway, it's real simple. Dooling & Garrity will play a role in determining how much cap space the team has available to pursue Vince and resign Darko (in that order). If the team does not wish to eclipse the luxury tax mark, then they can opt to trade away a player or two to clear cap space (see Hedo and/or Bogans).

 

The current numbers that Brian Schmitz is looking at really don't matter. If the Magic want to go after a big name free agent and resign Darko to a big contract they can easily do it. The real kick in the nuts wil come the following season when Dwight & Jameer need to be extended and Ariza can opt out of his tiny little contract. With Vince, & Darko potentially already locked into big contracts, can you imagine what payroll will be with those three players getting new contracts? Scary!

[John the Jerk 0]

quote:

Originally posted by SmackDaddy:

Isn't this the second such article that Brian Schmitz has written that demonstartes his complete lack of understanding regarding the salary cap?

 

Anyway, it's real simple. Dooling & Garrity will play a role in determining how much cap space the team has available to pursue Vince and resign Darko (in that order). If the team does not wish to eclipse the luxury tax mark, then they can opt to trade away a player or two to clear cap space (see Hedo and/or Bogans).

 

The current numbers that Brian Schmitz is looking at really don't matter. If the Magic want to go after a big name free agent and resign Darko to a big contract they can easily do it. The real kick in the nuts wil come the following season when Dwight & Jameer need to be extended and Ariza can opt out of his tiny little contract. With Vince, & Darko potentially already locked into big contracts, can you imagine what payroll will be with those three players getting new contracts? Scary!

 

Excellent Point!!!! It's not that they won't have available cap space to sign a good player, its a matter of THINKING AHEAD to Resign Dwight (MAX DEAL), Jameer (6-8 Mil), and Ariza

(4-6 Mil). We would be well over the cap next year if we add a Hefty contract this year.

[davcivic 11]

Yeah, but by then you could also get rid of other current contracts, (Battie, Carlos, etc) to make room for your core, then surround them with other cheap role players.

 

If anything the team should pay the lux tax, if we have a winning team on the court.

[John the Jerk 0]

quote:

Originally posted by davcivic:

Yeah, but by then you could also get rid of other current contracts, (Battie, Carlos, etc) to make room for your core, then surround them with other cheap role players.

 

If anything the team should pay the lux tax, if we have a winning team on the court.

 

I Don't think other teams would be willing to Pay Hedo and Battie what they are due just to help us sign "OUR" Core, thats our responsiblity. Many teams would require a piece of our CORE or atleast a DP to take on a bloated contract. Some sports owners are all business (Huzeinga) and others are Fans (Cuban), our owner is a BUSINESS MAN so the Orlando Magic would only be willing to pay the Luxury tax if it makes sense from a business perspective. That starts with securing a new Arena so they won't continue to lose money!!!

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

quote:

Originally posted by John the Jerk:

quote:

Originally posted by davcivic:

Yeah, but by then you could also get rid of other current contracts, (Battie, Carlos, etc) to make room for your core, then surround them with other cheap role players.

 

If anything the team should pay the lux tax, if we have a winning team on the court.

 

I Don't think other teams would be willing to Pay Hedo and Battie what they are due just to help us sign "OUR" Core, thats our responsiblity. Many teams would require a piece of our CORE or atleast a DP to take on a bloated contract. Some sports owners are all business (Huzeinga) and others are Fans (Cuban), our owner is a BUSINESS MAN so the Orlando Magic would only be willing to pay the Luxury tax if it makes sense from a business perspective. That starts with securing a new Arena so they won't continue to lose money!!!

 

I think a team that's a perennial contender for 5-6 years would make sense from a business perspective, as that would greatly increase team attendance and merchandising revenues.

 

That being said, I think Smackdaddy is right, and we'll likely be saying goodbye to Hedo in the offseason, but that's another thread.

[MagicmaninMiami 0]

When I last did the numbers if you wanted to be safe you had to move Hedo (and safely assume Dooling was opting out). Its very doable. Again as Smack indicated I am far from impressed by your journalists up there. They don't give good coverage and they often don't know what they are talking about.

 

Still, with the trade deadline out of the way I think the ground is set to see if The Magic even want to go after Vince. They can now afford to put it out of their heads and wait to see over the next 20+ games if what they have develops (In particular Darko, Aziza and JJ - if he gets any time).

 

At the end of the season if there is solid development and if the magic make the playoffs I can see the organization not making a play for Vince at all and opting to bring in someone a little bit more consistent for Hedo who I believe should be traded before he can't be.

 

They have to be looking at the 2008 numbers Smack referred to.

[MagicFan12 0]

battie in not worth 5 mill, that was a mistake.and I dont think darko deserves even 6 mill, his play hasnt showed it yet, he's had like 2 standout games. how much does vince want/ can we even sign him, if we dont sign darko? he probably wants around 15 mil.

[CRAZY SERB 0]

quote:

Originally posted by davcivic:

Yeah, but by then you could also get rid of other current contracts, (Battie, Carlos, etc) to make room for your core, then surround them with other cheap role players.

 

If anything the team should pay the lux tax, if we have a winning team on the court.

 

exactly!!!

last year we paid 75mill and had an awful team, why not give this money to a potential dynasty???