2014 Draft Thread

[Ibn Battuta 127]

I know exactly how much rookie picks cost, the point again sails right over your head. It doesn't matter if that pick ends up being worth a measly 1.5m, for a cash strapped team that's 1.5 million more than they'd want to spend. This is why contending teams with little cap space routinely trade first round picks. Are you truly arguing against that?

 

why don't you actually provide "routine examples" of a contending team trading away their draft picks in this exact manner that you are saying. And explain to us how the magic are cash-strapped. The rest of your post is just a stack of dominoes.

 

and LOL at you thinking we didn't want the pick, thus why we traded it. Rob wanted Payton and Hinkie, like the shrewed GM he is, took advantage of that. There's nothing else to it.

[Franchise408 116]

To throw my hat into the "does Orlando try to win now or try to tank another year?" debate:

 

I think the answer depends on what you think is already on the team. If you think the core of the team is mostly built, I don't see any reason to keep losing. There is a difference between those people who occasionally play the lottery and those sad folks who spend large portions of their disposable income on lottery tickets every paycheck because they know they're just "do" this time. I've been saying this since the rebuild started, banking on the lottery long term is a bad idea. That's why it's a lottery. A couple of years without finding a star player to build around in the draft, three at the most, is all any team should find acceptable. After that, I think it's best to build a team that can win games and a culture that a star would want to play for, while keeping cap flexibility and stockpiling as many assets as possible. Other teams have done well at this. Houston was a borderline playoff team in the Western Conference before getting either of their current stars. Orlando did it with the H & H team, and we nearly got to see our own Big 3 in Orlando. The trick is that the only way to do this is to get the team to win every possible game, maximize their talent, even before a superstar gets there. It is a myth that mediocrity is a death sentence in the NBA. Cap mismanagement is a death sentence. With smart cap management, mediocre teams become contending teams.

 

If you think there is next to nothing here, that drafting a superstar is the only way to contend, then you give Rob one more year to get his man, then if he doesn't you fire him, trade most of the young players for more draft picks, and start the whole process again. Whenever you do get a franchise-changing player in Orlando, you hope he likes playing here, that it doesn't take beyond his second contract to win a championship. To ensure those things, you better hope he is so transcendentally good that other stars will want to play with him, or that you don't get too good too quick, and that you are lucky enough to get another franchise-changing player in the lottery. Plenty of teams have tried this. OKC obviously succeeded.

 

What I am pretty sure of is that no superstar will want to come to Orlando without some indication that he can win there. Orlando isn't going after LeBron because they know he won't come to a team that sucks. Why would Durant do that? Or anyone else? Championship caliber players come to teams that are a piece or two away, not a team in the bottom of the lottery. Note that no one is going to Cleveland, despite that they already have a star and they have cap space galore. Why? Not because everyone hates Dan Gilbert. That doesn't help, but if that team were in the playoffs, no one would care that Gilbert is a tool. Love won't go there, LeBron won't go there, Irving wants out, all because the team is being mismanaged and has no sense of moving forward. So if you want Durant, or whoever among the NBA's future free agency stars, hope that this team wins a little now so they can win a lot later.

 

My hope: Gordon becomes Griffin/Rodman hybrid, Oladipo becomes D-Wade Light, Payton becomes Rondo Light. That way all this talk is pointless, and the rebuild is almost over.

 

This, so much.

 

Especially the bolded:

 

"It is a myth that mediocrity is a death sentence in the NBA."

 

"Good" teams were "mediocre" at some point. Those teams were a 6th, 7th, or 8th seed that got bounced out of the 1st round at one point.

 

That isn't a death sentence. It's a stepping stone.

 

You don't just go "tank, lottery, tank, lottery, tank, lottery, CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDER!!! OMGWTFPWN!"

 

No, it's usually "suck, lottery, suck less, lower lottery, low seed playoff, early tournament exit, higher seed playoff, deeper run, attractive situation for free agents, high seed playoff team, deep run, legit contender"

 

So no, tanking is never the solution.

 

If you suck, you'll suck and you'll get your pick. But every year, you make the moves possible and necessary to be the best team you can be.

 

That doesn't mean make bad moves for the sake of making moves. THAT is what makes mediocre teams perpetually mediocre, because they aren't making SMART moves, they are just making moves for the sake of making moves, and they don't go anywhere.

 

I have no opinion on Parsons, one way or another. BUT I will say, if Rob is purposefully passing up on potential free agents that are out there that would be legitimate pieces for this team going forward, for the sake of "tanking" and getting draft picks, then he is a bad GM and needs to GTFO.

 

If he passes on Parsons because he doesn't deem him a fit, and as such, would only further prevent us from finding that pieces in the future and we go forth with a less than ideal roster for this season? So be it. I WOULD rather suck this year, than to hand out a contract just for the sake of handing out a contract.

 

But at some point, the powers that be need to pull the trigger on SOMETHING. We can't just sit on our thumbs forever because "we don't want to be a low seeded playoff team, that would be mediocre!" At some point, we need to start taking those steps. We're not going to successfully build a team with perpetual 20+ win seasons and lottery pick after lottery pick. At some point, we're going to have to take that step to "6th - 8th seed" before we can take the next step to contender.

 

And that's why this whole "tank" business is bunk. You don't build a championship contender through tanking. You build a championship contender through steady improvement.

[Emory889 353]

I think Parsons is a solid player. I just don't think you add higher priced free agents when you don't have an alpha dog superstar locked up first. Sacrificing that financial flexibility prematurely doesn't make sense to me. What happens if we sign Parsons and then in a year sign Carmelo (I know, I'm just using his name as a hypothetical)? They probably don't play that well effectively and we are looking to move Parsons contract. I think you sign the major free agent you want and then sign the minor free agents that compliment his game after the fact.

[God Hates Otis Smith 153]

i don't have a problem making the playoffs this year as long as it's natural

 

what i mean is, we don't blow our cap flexibility, or block our young guys from playing.

 

if the kids can take us there, then that is ONLY a good thing

[MagicFanInNevada 51]

http://youtu.be/LJ8iFj9CHoo

 

http://youtu.be/wcI8R8yFfRc

 

Man I'm excited about these two. Once their offense comes together this Orlando team is going to be fun to watch and tough to beat. They're going to make teams work hard for their wins.

[~O~ 565]

This video had me sold for Aaron Gordon pre draft. Wanted him as the twelve pick. Still acquired so I'm not complaining.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jC52lEJGNo4

 

This unrelated but Zach Lavine is going to be a travel massacre in the NBA.

[~O~ 565]

http://youtu.be/LJ8iFj9CHoo

 

http://youtu.be/wcI8R8yFfRc

 

Man I'm excited about these two. Once their offense comes together this Orlando team is going to be fun to watch and tough to beat. They're going to make teams work hard for their wins.

 

 

You posted the video I post lol.

 

 

A safe presumption of Gordon holding a high school legacy? Safe.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7tkhuLEJig

 

 

These poor high school kids.

[MagicFanInNevada 51]

You posted the video I post lol.

 

 

A safe presumption of Gordon holding a high school legacy? Safe.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7tkhuLEJig

 

 

These poor high school kids.

 

Great minds think alike :)

 

He's so versatile and brings a lot of intangibles to the team.

 

Here's my favorite video of Gordon

 

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

It's really hard to judge Rob's drafting abilities so far. He's had only three and hasn't been given the optimal circumstances unfortunately. His draft we didn't have a lottery pick and last year was the weakest draft in years (we were lucky to get Oladipo out of it) and this year we got screwed by the lottery and couldn't grab the guys with the biggest star potential. But taking Gordon over Exum was a gutsy move, and one that could make or break him in a few years. I think Rob has done an excellent job creating a roster full of quality assets and cap space after Otis left us with Dwight and overpaid veterans galore. We've got an opportunity to build something, we're just going to need some luck because it will be hard seeing us get that championship team we desire without a star player.

 

So far he's drafted Nicholson, O'Quinn, Oladipo and Osby before this year.

 

Osby hasn't played.

Nicholson is a meh 4th big man, but nothing taken after him really jumps out as being better except maybe Kyle O'Quinn.

Kyle O'Quinn is a solid 4th big man who inexplicably started some last year. This should never happen again.

Oladipo was a solid wing as a rookie who should get better, taken in a draft where 2 of the top 3 picks already look like massive busts.

It's hard to judge his drafting ability with such a small sample size, but that's not bad, all things reconsidered.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

This, so much.

 

Especially the bolded:

 

"It is a myth that mediocrity is a death sentence in the NBA."

 

"Good" teams were "mediocre" at some point. Those teams were a 6th, 7th, or 8th seed that got bounced out of the 1st round at one point.

 

That isn't a death sentence. It's a stepping stone.

 

It's really easy to make up an argument, put it in the mouths of large amounts of others, and then declare yourself a winner by debunking it. It's also endlessly silly.

 

The argument isn't that being an 8th seed for one year is a death sentence. The argument is that making moves that lock you into a 6th-8th seed long term through mismanagement of assets is a death sentence. It's really not that complicated.

 

You don't just go "tank, lottery, tank, lottery, tank, lottery, CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDER!!! OMGWTFPWN!"

 

No, it's usually "suck, lottery, suck less, lower lottery, low seed playoff, early tournament exit, higher seed playoff, deeper run, attractive situation for free agents, high seed playoff team, deep run, legit contender"

 

.....who is is that you think has become a contender this way? You say that's the way it "usually" goes, so name, I don't know, 10 teams that became contenders through that exact path. I'll wait.

 

So no, tanking is never the solution.

 

If you suck, you'll suck and you'll get your pick. But every year, you make the moves possible and necessary to be the best team you can be.

 

You're right. Tanking never works. Not once.

 

That doesn't mean make bad moves for the sake of making moves. THAT is what makes mediocre teams perpetually mediocre, because they aren't making SMART moves, they are just making moves for the sake of making moves, and they don't go anywhere.

 

I have no opinion on Parsons, one way or another. BUT I will say, if Rob is purposefully passing up on potential free agents that are out there that would be legitimate pieces for this team going forward, for the sake of "tanking" and getting draft picks, then he is a bad GM and needs to GTFO.

 

If he passes on Parsons because he doesn't deem him a fit, and as such, would only further prevent us from finding that pieces in the future and we go forth with a less than ideal roster for this season? So be it. I WOULD rather suck this year, than to hand out a contract just for the sake of handing out a contract.

 

But at some point, the powers that be need to pull the trigger on SOMETHING. We can't just sit on our thumbs forever because "we don't want to be a low seeded playoff team, that would be mediocre!" At some point, we need to start taking those steps. We're not going to successfully build a team with perpetual 20+ win seasons and lottery pick after lottery pick. At some point, we're going to have to take that step to "6th - 8th seed" before we can take the next step to contender.

 

I like that you spend three paragraphs arguing against making moves for their own sake, and then completely undercut your own point in first sentence of the subsequent paragraph.

 

And that's why this whole "tank" business is bunk. You don't build a championship contender through tanking. You build a championship contender through steady improvement.

 

Or you tank for Tim Duncan. Or you tank, trade your picks for veterans on the downswings of their careers and win a title the following year. Or you tank, use your picks to offload salary, then offer max contracts to three different free agents and then win titles in two of the next 3 years.

 

The problem with decrying "tanking" is that tanking means any number of things, which somehow all get lumped together as "losing intentionally", which is inherently false. It's much more about not sacrificing long term plans for short term gains than anything else. High draft picks are just a part of that.

 

The Magic, for instance, have the CAP space that, if they really wanted, they could probably be a 35-40 win team next year by signing a bunch of people. But they'd have to sign those people to long term contracts to get them here, which would lock them into that level of success for at least the next 3-4 years. That would be, ahem, a "death sentence", since it would stagnate the growth of their younger players while also making it less likely that they'd have high enough draft position to find high-level contributors in the draft.

[Natesroom 197]

I approve of your post DOM.

 

I can Name the Lakers & Spurs as teams who "Tanked" and drafted Magic and Duncan and were championship contenders the following year. Houston went 29 and 53 and drafted Hakeem and lost first round with him and then went to the finals the next year.

[Soul Bro 1,419]

Could it be that Henny played everyone, especially the media, with the supposed love for Exum and Vonleh? I think so. After the lottery selection, I believe he wanted Gordon all along.