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TrueMagicFan07

Official Game Thread: Magic @ Heat

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Twice in 22 years the worst team gets the 1st pick. TWICE. I hope you don't go to Vegas with that logic of yours. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against Orlando getting the #1 pick and that is fact. I do not care about probability being raised of us getting the pick, look at history. History says it doesn't happen very often at all. History says any team BUT the worst team will land the #1 pick. I don't put the damn ping pong balls in the machine, I don't know why teams with the most #1 of ping pong balls don't get the pick but they don't. Would you go to Vegas and bet that Orlando would land the #1 pick when statistically it's happened only twice in more than two decades? Better yet, go to Vegas, they like to take money from guys like you

 

You do realize that as the team with the worst record in the league you have a 25% chance of landing the number 1 pick. Every team from 2nd worst to 16th worst has a decreasing probability of getting the number 1 pick. What that means, is:

 

Pr(Magic getting number 1 pick)>Pr(Chlt getting number 1 pick), Pr(Magic getting number 1 pick)>Pr(3rd worst team getting number 1 pick) etc etc.

 

What you are referencing is:

 

Pr(Magic getting number 1 pick) < [ Pr(Chlt getting number 1 pick) U Pr(3rd worst team getting number 1 pick) U ... U Pr(16th worst team getting number 1 pick)].

 

Those two are entirely different problems. The one you are referencing essentially sees teams 2-15 as one entity.

 

Obviously each team has its own unique probability so your claim is incorrect.

 

Also regarding historical evidence, each draft lottery is independent of each other draft lottery so each draft lottery result has no bearing on any other draft lottery result.

 

 

Source: I'm an actuary. I know probability.

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Twice in 22 years the worst team gets the 1st pick. TWICE. I hope you don't go to Vegas with that logic of yours. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against Orlando getting the #1 pick and that is fact. I do not care about probability being raised of us getting the pick, look at history. History says it doesn't happen very often at all. History says any team BUT the worst team will land the #1 pick. I don't put the damn ping pong balls in the machine, I don't know why teams with the most #1 of ping pong balls don't get the pick but they don't. Would you go to Vegas and bet that Orlando would land the #1 pick when statistically it's happened only twice in more than two decades? Better yet, go to Vegas, they like to take money from guys like you

 

Seriously? Dude...stop. You're taking an aberration, something that happens by chance, and assigning a probability to it. If you flip a coin 10 times and heads comes up 7 of the ten, does the probability of flipping heads in the future increase? Before you hurt yourself...no, it does not.

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I'm more interested in seeing Utah win against Memphis than to see Orlando win this one... anyone else agree?

 

I mean it would be a bonus is Utah knock out the Lakers but seeing the Magic win in Miami would be more enjoyable

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I'm more interested in seeing Utah win against Memphis than to see Orlando win this one... anyone else agree?

 

I mean it would be a bonus is Utah knock out the Lakers but seeing the Magic win in Miami would be more enjoyable

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Twice in 22 years the worst team gets the 1st pick. TWICE. I hope you don't go to Vegas with that logic of yours. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against Orlando getting the #1 pick and that is fact. I do not care about probability being raised of us getting the pick, look at history. History says it doesn't happen very often at all. History says any team BUT the worst team will land the #1 pick. I don't put the damn ping pong balls in the machine, I don't know why teams with the most #1 of ping pong balls don't get the pick but they don't. Would you go to Vegas and bet that Orlando would land the #1 pick when statistically it's happened only twice in more than two decades? Better yet, go to Vegas, they like to take money from guys like you

 

This is what's called a false equivocation.

 

The issue isn't whether or not I would bet my life's savings on a 25% chance to win. If you want your metaphor to be accurate, I'd have to have no choice but bet my life savings to win, and now I'm choosing which percentage chance I want to put it on.

 

In that scenario, you'd have to be a completely ignorant asshat to not pick the option that has the highest probability to win.

 

You're essentially arguing that the Magic can choose between a 25% chance of the #1 seed or a 75% chance of the #1 seed, but that's not how it works. They can choose between a 25% chance, a 20% chance, a 15.6% chance, an 11.9% chance and so on.

 

So when given THOSE specific options, people on this board are saying that Orlando should, given the option, choose the one that provides the best possible chance of the desired outcome. The worst record in the NBA guarantees Orlando a top 4 pick, and a 46.5% of a top 2 pick. Those are the best outcomes, so the Magic should want that.

 

And since, again, you don't understand probability(note: this makes you less intelligent than the remedial high school kids my sister teaches at Olympia): if you flip a coin, and it comes up heads, that fact will never have any bearing on any other flip of that or any other coin from then until the universe dies it's inevitable heat death. Honest coins, like honest dice and honest NBA Draft ping pong balls, don't have memories.

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As unethical as it would be Memphis should throw the game so Lakers dont get in. Not sure but if LAL beat Houston today are they in the 8?

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Look guys, all I'm saying is that I'm cheering for this team to win the last game of the season as a good way to send our guys off into the off season. We've been snake-bitten by injuries and plagued by a lot of bad luck lately but tonite is our rivalry game and it is the battle for the sunshine state. They've beaten us the last 3 times and two of those games I'm not convinced we would've lost without a lot of bogus calls from refs. I cannot consciously cheer for the Miami Heat tonite unlike some Orlando 'fans' who do so because they think having a few more ping pong balls in a vaccuumed tube that hasn't produced the #1 pick with the team that had the best chance in the last 9 years anyway and in a year where there is not even a consensus clear cut #1 pick in the draft class. Have some damn pride in your team is all I am saying, it is embarrassing to be known as the team that performed the worst during the '12-'13 season, seeing as how we were in the playoffs just one year ago and that jerkoff Dwight Howard gets all the satisfaction in seeing his stupid Lakers make the playoffs(hope not, pulling for Utah tonite) while we suffer and not only miss the playoffs for the first time in 7 seasons, but also end up with potentially a worse record than the friggin Charlotte Bobcats. Maybe if the worst team won the #1 pick a little more frequently, maybe if there was a clear cut #1 pick in this draft class, I dunno but it takes a lot for me to not cheer for this team ESPECIALLY the LAST GAME OF THE SEASON against those dreadful disgusting arrogant Miami Heat. That is all...

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Look guys, all I'm saying is that I'm cheering for this team to win the last game of the season as a good way to send our guys off into the off season. We've been snake-bitten by injuries and plagued by a lot of bad luck lately but tonite is our rivalry game and it is the battle for the sunshine state. They've beaten us the last 3 times and two of those games I'm not convinced we would've lost without a lot of bogus calls from refs. I cannot consciously cheer for the Miami Heat tonite unlike some Orlando 'fans' who do so because they think having a few more ping pong balls in a vaccuumed tube that hasn't produced the #1 pick with the team that had the best chance in the last 9 years anyway and in a year where there is not even a consensus clear cut #1 pick in the draft class. Have some damn pride in your team is all I am saying, it is embarrassing to be known as the team that performed the worst during the '12-'13 season, seeing as how we were in the playoffs just one year ago and that jerkoff Dwight Howard gets all the satisfaction in seeing his stupid Lakers make the playoffs(hope not, pulling for Utah tonite) while we suffer and not only miss the playoffs for the first time in 7 seasons, but also end up with potentially a worse record than the friggin Charlotte Bobcats. Maybe if the worst team won the #1 pick a little more frequently, maybe if there was a clear cut #1 pick in this draft class, I dunno but it takes a lot for me to not cheer for this team ESPECIALLY the LAST GAME OF THE SEASON against those dreadful disgusting arrogant Miami Heat. That is all...

 

What I read is "I am ignorant and I refuse to realize basic laws of probability".

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Look guys, all I'm saying is that I'm cheering for this team to win the last game of the season as a good way to send our guys off into the off season. We've been snake-bitten by injuries and plagued by a lot of bad luck lately but tonite is our rivalry game and it is the battle for the sunshine state. They've beaten us the last 3 times and two of those games I'm not convinced we would've lost without a lot of bogus calls from refs. I cannot consciously cheer for the Miami Heat tonite unlike some Orlando 'fans' who do so because they think having a few more ping pong balls in a vaccuumed tube that hasn't produced the #1 pick with the team that had the best chance in the last 9 years anyway and in a year where there is not even a consensus clear cut #1 pick in the draft class. Have some damn pride in your team is all I am saying, it is embarrassing to be known as the team that performed the worst during the '12-'13 season, seeing as how we were in the playoffs just one year ago and that jerkoff Dwight Howard gets all the satisfaction in seeing his stupid Lakers make the playoffs(hope not, pulling for Utah tonite) while we suffer and not only miss the playoffs for the first time in 7 seasons, but also end up with potentially a worse record than the friggin Charlotte Bobcats. Maybe if the worst team won the #1 pick a little more frequently, maybe if there was a clear cut #1 pick in this draft class, I dunno but it takes a lot for me to not cheer for this team ESPECIALLY the LAST GAME OF THE SEASON against those dreadful disgusting arrogant Miami Heat. That is all...

 

I admire how you still managed to squeeze a mention of the ping-pong balls and the draft somewhere in the middle of all that. This game will not determine whether or not we suck, our 60+ losses takes care of that for us. I hope we win, I never route against my team...but who gives a poop?

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Look guys, all I'm saying is that I'm cheering for this team to win the last game of the season as a good way to send our guys off into the off season.

 

You hadn't said anything pertaining to this at all. I mean, literally, your old posts are still there.

 

We've been snake-bitten by injuries and plagued by a lot of bad luck lately but tonite is our rivalry game and it is the battle for the sunshine state.

 

"Tonite" isn't a word. And if this is a battle for the sunshine state, then I'm Elvis.

 

They've beaten us the last 3 times and two of those games I'm not convinced we would've lost without a lot of bogus calls from refs.

 

I was at one of the two games you're talking about. We would have lost. Our lack of a closer had little to do with the refs, and even if it did, that has no relevance to what's being discussed. You're trying to change the subject so you can make this less about how much you don't understand probability and about who has the biggest fan-penis. You're not going to succeed at that here, because this isn't RealGM: We're not that blind.

 

I cannot consciously cheer for the Miami Heat tonite unlike some Orlando 'fans' who do so because they think having a few more ping pong balls in a vaccuumed tube that hasn't produced the #1 pick with the team that had the best chance in the last 9 years anyway and in a year where there is not even a consensus clear cut #1 pick in the draft class.

 

Were I a MOD, I'd ban you for this atrocity against the written word. This is like having 5 terrible, mostly nonsensical and illiterate sentences and mashing them together. And you're not a bigger fan than anyone on this board, much less a bigger fan purely because you think winning one meaningless game to end a season is worth a damn, or that wanting that makes you better than anyone else.

 

Seriously, if you wanna measure our e-penises about who's the bigger fan of the Magic or even of basketball, throw down. I remember players whose names you couldn't even spell.

 

Have some damn pride in your team is all I am saying, it is embarrassing to be known as the team that performed the worst during the '12-'13 season, seeing as how we were in the playoffs just one year ago and that jerkoff Dwight Howard gets all the satisfaction in seeing his stupid Lakers make the playoffs(hope not, pulling for Utah tonite) while we suffer and not only miss the playoffs for the first time in 7 seasons, but also end up with potentially a worse record than the friggin Charlotte Bobcats.

 

You do know that you're not actually ON the team, right?

 

I'm just saying that if you're actually physically embarrassed that a team you watch on tv is bad during a deliberate rebuilding year then you're not just an idiot; it means you probably have some sort of severe psychological break that needs to be addressed by a mental health professional.

 

Maybe if the worst team won the #1 pick a little more frequently, maybe if there was a clear cut #1 pick in this draft class, I dunno but it takes a lot for me to not cheer for this team ESPECIALLY the LAST GAME OF THE SEASON against those dreadful disgusting arrogant Miami Heat. That is all...

 

I don't really have anything to add to this last bit, except that "dreadful disgusting arrogant Miami Heat" makes me picture you as a petulant 12 year old girl, who is shouting this entire post while stomping up and down and crying.

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