2023 Off-Season Thread

[CTMagicUK 1,620]

2 hours ago, orlandoholic said:

it’s fair to feel that way.. I feel like he needs a new environment that will play him differently. 

He's also responsible for the way he plays. 

[CTMagicUK 1,620]

Trying to find some under the radar free agents that won't need big money but might still help us. Someone like Shake Milton maybe? Won't cost a lot, playoff experience, can shoot. 

[ball junkie 277]

WCJ 17.48
Fultz 16.81
Cole  16.10
Franz 16.10
Banchero 15.08
Suggs 12.63
G Harris 10.57

So this is PER for this season …What do you think of PER as a measure ? I just listed the guys that played over 20 minutes a game …PER used to be the be all end all …thoughts on these numbers ?

[fan for too long 2 565]

2 hours ago, ball junkie said:

WCJ 17.48
Fultz 16.81
Cole  16.10
Franz 16.10
Banchero 15.08
Suggs 12.63
G Harris 10.57

So this is PER for this season …What do you think of PER as a measure ? I just listed the guys that played over 20 minutes a game …PER used to be the be all end all …thoughts on these numbers ?

Any stat that says Cole and Franz have an equal affect on the team winning needs to be questioned 

[MagicMan1979 153]

2 hours ago, ball junkie said:

WCJ 17.48
Fultz 16.81
Cole  16.10
Franz 16.10
Banchero 15.08
Suggs 12.63
G Harris 10.57

So this is PER for this season …What do you think of PER as a measure ? I just listed the guys that played over 20 minutes a game …PER used to be the be all end all …thoughts on these numbers ?

I know that use to be the stat us old guys used on NBA.com and ESPN before all the advanced analytics the last 10-15 years. The criticism I’ve heard is it favors big men quite a bit. Here is a list of the top PERs for their careers ever for comparison. MJ and Lebron being there makes sense but I don’t think anyone would have Davis and Jokic as their top players ever. 
 

1.	Michael Jordan*	27.91
2.	Nikola Jokić	27.65
3.	LeBron James	27.22
4.	Anthony Davis	26.96
5.	Shaquille O'Neal*	26.43
6.	David Robinson*	26.18
7.	Wilt Chamberlain*	26.16
8.	Bob Pettit*	25.45
9.	Kevin Durant	25.29
10.	Giannis Antetokounmpo	24.92

[CTMagicUK 1,620]

It's the year 2023 and we're talking about PER... 

[ball junkie 277]

So Soul Bro likes this link :

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm

It’s got his boy Franz like 10th …WCJ 58 …but it’s got his brother Mo next at 104 …so for me this link has things that make you wanna scratch your head also …anybody that wants to elaborate I’m all ears 

[crisby pancakes 126]

17 hours ago, ball junkie said:

So Soul Bro likes this link :

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm

It’s got his boy Franz like 10th …WCJ 58 …but it’s got his brother Mo next at 104 …so for me this link has things that make you wanna scratch your head also …anybody that wants to elaborate I’m all ears 

Honestly, most of the all in one metrics aren't great. PER is probably the worst of the lot these days and RPM isn't the best either but obviously NBA teams have their own custom systems that they keep secret so all we get to look at is the data that's publicly available.

I mean you look at the rookie discussions going on where some people say Kessler is better than Banchero. Advanced metrics will show he is but the reality is he isn't. Banchero is the much better player and that's because these advanced metrics don't take context into account. Banchero plays bigger minutes, plays against starters, is the focal point of the team and is also the focal point of the opposing team. Kessler plays less minutes, plays more minutes against non starters, has a lesser role within his team and the opposing team isn't focusing their game plan against him.

In short, I would say don't get too hung up over advanced stats, for me, the eye test is always better. We know Banchero is better than Mo Wagner despite advanced analytics saying otherwise.

In terms of advanced stats, I prefer EPM personally. https://dunksandthrees.com/epm But that has Franz, WCJ and Mo ranked 1, 2, and 4 out of Magic players so maybe it's something afterall lol.

Darko DPM is meant to be pretty good as well https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO// I'll admit that one always confuses me slightly. Overall though, when you look at most of the differing advanced metric systems Franz is generally very highly rated across them all and in some pretty good vet company, not bad going for a 2nd year player and definitely a player the organisation will build around. Lets hope we manage to strike gold in the draft this year!

[Luke_FfS 290]

On 4/29/2023 at 11:18 PM, CTMagicUK said:

It's the year 2023 and we're talking about PER... 

I've honestly never liked PER, but some time ago you weren't convinced by adv def stats either. What are the stats that are most valuable in your opinion? Cause eye test is tricky too, especially when we judge as fans. :)

[CTMagicUK 1,620]

25 minutes ago, Luke_FfS said:

I've honestly never liked PER, but some time ago you weren't convinced by adv def stats either. What are the stats that are most valuable in your opinion? Cause eye test is tricky too, especially when we judge as fans. :)

I used to be very stats oriented in sports (I have a degree in mathematics and statistics so always gravitated that way and can imagine if you go back years into my post history you'll see me acting like PER and stuff like that is meaningful) but ultimately most of these types of "all in one" stats strip away far too much context to be worthwhile. 

I always remember a Stan Van Gundy quote from an NBA panel at the Sloan Sports Analytics conference (the panel is from years ago but I reckon you might be able to find it on YouTube somewhere) and Stan was kind of the "old head" on the panel with a bunch of stats guys and one thing he brought up was (this is heavily paraphrased because it's years ago) "most of the defensive analytics say that JJ Redick is a bad defender, and look I can see why you might even think that from a conventional coaching perspective, he's not tall, he's got short arms, but what I do know is this: if you ask JJ Redick to do something as part of the defensive scheme he'll do it every. Single. Time. And that stuff doesn't show up in a box score and can't be accounted for by analytics" that quote didn't make me anti-analytics but I do think it helped me understand how many things happen on the court that aren't recorded in a (traditional, theres some fun play tracking stuff going on) box score. 

That's not to say I don't value analytics, I do. I just don't like all in one stats. I also don't believe in using just singular stats to form opinions. 

An example is people using 3 point % to say whether someone is a good or bad shooter. Good shooters tend to take more difficult shots than bad shooters so this skews their % it's sometimes harder to understand this because Steph Curry and Dame Lillard exist and are insane and kind of game breaking. But to help illustrate I like this example: Luka Doncic is a better shooter than Grant Williams no matter what the stats say. (This incidentally is why I'm not very worried about Paolo as a 3 point shooter because he's taking a lot of unassisted 3s, if he only took open catch and shoot shots he'd probably be a lot more efficient)

[Jay Magic 1,322]

 

[Jay Magic 1,322]