2023 Off-Season Thread

[CTMagicUK 1,475]

5 hours ago, TreyMachine said:

Is there any rationale to save salary cap space knowing the CBA is going to be much harder on luxury taxes in the coming years and presumably our rookies coming up in the next 2-3 years will all see pretty advanced pay raises, including Paolo whom at this rate of growth might get a max contract? 

It's kind of a complex situation that requires incredible amounts of mapping but I wouldn't worry too much about that.The first time that really starts to become a factor is not next summer but the summer after when Franz will be heading into a max extension. The thing is though the cap and tax lines will rise every season between now and then and in the mean time the money of Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz will come off the books (provided we don't resign any of them). 

Now it feels unlikely (but not impossible) Franz will qualify for the Derrick Ross rule so his max contract will probably be 25% of the cap. The cap is projected to be almost $148m that season which gives Franz a deal starting at $37m (depending on how Franz develops there may be some scope for us to negotiate him down from a full max). The only other contracts we're guaranteed to have on the books that season are Paolo at $15m, Wendell at $10.8m and, presuming we select at both 6 and 11 and keep them from now until then, those salaries which I can't be bothered to actually work out but their salary this season will be circa $11m combined so we'll call it $16m 2 years from now at a guess. Comes out to having $79m on the books for that season. Exactly half of the cap. If we have Suggs a $20m extension and Fultz something similar we'd be at $119m with still $27m to fill out the roster until we hit the cap line. 

Crucially it doesn't really matter if we go over the cap, it actually doesn't really matter from a new CBA perspective if we go just into the tax (though as a small market franchise we probably won't go into the tax until we're legitimate title contenders given the revenue we'd lose out on) and the luxury tax line for that season is estimated to be $178m. So we actually have 59m in space. Now a small amount of that will be taken up by the 2024 FRP but it's hard to predict their salary without knowing where we're picking but we can presume it'll probably be on the smaller side so I won't think too hard about it. 

The next summer then is when a Paolo max extension kicks in. He may very well qualify for the Derrick Rose Rule and get 30% of the cap (would need to be All NBA or MVP calibre by end of his 4th season). The cap for that season is currently projected at $155m ($187m tax) so that'd start his max deal at around $46.5m. The difference in salary year on year is about $31m so add $31m to where we were the season prior. Let's say we wind up at $160m for that season (over the cap but well under the tax, would require us to have another $40m ish on the books). Paolo's contract theoretically takes us over the tax line. It gets tight but WCJ comes off the books that summer which theoretically gets us back below the tax line.

And I think that's where with the middle group of guys you might extend (the none Franz/Paolo guys) you probably think a lot about structure. For example Cole's extension (should it happen) comes first and I wouldn't be surprised if we structure it in a 3 year deal, last year team option which would give us the flexibility that summer we're heading into the first season of the Paolo max to just decline that team option and create space. 

A Fultz extension, maybe you do that for 2 years or 2+ a team option at a slightly inflated rate (2/50m or 3/75m with a team option or something) so that it also drops off the books before the Paolo max. 

Anyway this is a lot of projecting and thinking out loud to say I think we'd be genuinely fine if we gave out one big contract this summer. We've got the future flexibility to make it work. 

 

 

[CTMagicUK 1,475]

Damn Pistons broke the bank for Monty Williams as their coach. Apparently it has options and incentives that could take his pay up to $100m.

[Jay Magic 1,231]

 

[Soul Bro 1,418]

49 minutes ago, Jay Magic said:

 

I'm down ❤️

[Soul Bro 1,418]

Would you guys trade something like JI and #11 for Marcus Smart? 

"If the Celtics remain committed to building around the Jays, there will need to be some tweaks to the supporting cast. That would include moving on from at least one of the guard trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White."

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/celtics-face-several-pressing-offseason-questions-after-game-7-loss-heat

[Jon 30]

1 minute ago, Soul Bro said:

Would you guys trade something like JI and #11 for Marcus Smart? 

"If the Celtics remain committed to building around the Jays, there will need to be some tweaks to the supporting cast. That would include moving on from at least one of the guard trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White."

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/celtics-face-several-pressing-offseason-questions-after-game-7-loss-heat

No. 
 

I do like the Reaves possibility but he may be asking a lot.

[Mauro Pedrosa 1,031]

59 minutes ago, Jay Magic said:

 

AT LAST

[Albert Lergier 99]

4 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

Damn Pistons broke the bank for Monty Williams as their coach. Apparently it has options and incentives that could take his pay up to $100m.

And might never make the playoffs under his tenure......maybe.

[CTMagicUK 1,475]

8 minutes ago, Soul Bro said:

Would you guys trade something like JI and #11 for Marcus Smart? 

"If the Celtics remain committed to building around the Jays, there will need to be some tweaks to the supporting cast. That would include moving on from at least one of the guard trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White."

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/celtics-face-several-pressing-offseason-questions-after-game-7-loss-heat

Not for me.

[Soul Bro 1,418]

1 hour ago, Jay Magic said:

 

"Here's the short explanation: as the Lakers only have Early Bird Rights, they cannot pay Reaves more than 105% of the previous season's average player salary. All told, that means the Lakers can only offer Reaves around $53 million over four years. Other teams, however, are not limited by this restriction. They must make Reaves an offer the Lakers can legally match—which would start at that $11.4 million figure and rise only slightly in the second season—but those restrictions lift in the third and fourth season of the deal, when he could make anything up to his max. For teams with cap space, this isn't especially cumbersome. The total amount Reaves could get as a restricted free agent is roughly $99 million over four years, but a team signing Reaves with space could format that deal in a more traditional structure because they are not bound by Early Bird Rights. But the Lakers? If they match such an offer sheet, the deal has to be backloaded to abide by the Arenas Provision."

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/lakers-rumors-projecting-the-cost-of-re-signing-key-free-agents-like-austin-reaves-and-rui-hachimura/

[Jason Funderburker 111]

Reaves is a good player but he is not going to be worth what the back 2 years will be paying him

[orlandoholic 131]

2 hours ago, Soul Bro said:

"Here's the short explanation: as the Lakers only have Early Bird Rights, they cannot pay Reaves more than 105% of the previous season's average player salary. All told, that means the Lakers can only offer Reaves around $53 million over four years. Other teams, however, are not limited by this restriction. They must make Reaves an offer the Lakers can legally match—which would start at that $11.4 million figure and rise only slightly in the second season—but those restrictions lift in the third and fourth season of the deal, when he could make anything up to his max. For teams with cap space, this isn't especially cumbersome. The total amount Reaves could get as a restricted free agent is roughly $99 million over four years, but a team signing Reaves with space could format that deal in a more traditional structure because they are not bound by Early Bird Rights. But the Lakers? If they match such an offer sheet, the deal has to be backloaded to abide by the Arenas Provision."

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/lakers-rumors-projecting-the-cost-of-re-signing-key-free-agents-like-austin-reaves-and-rui-hachimura/

lol that’s too much money for a hype player.. he had great moments, but let not forget he was playing alongside  pretty darn good players.. 
 

People are hesitant to pay Cam Johnson but at the same time would break the bank for Reaves? 

That Reaves deal is going to be an interesting gamble.. I bet the Warriors regret paying J. Poole after his hyped up season. It’s just too dangerous imo..

Also Reaves was getting superstar treatment from the refs. I don’t know why but certainly he ain’t shooting that amount of free throws in Orlando