2022 NBA Draft Thread

[Justin Jaudon 221]

12 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

I hardly think it's fair to take one of the biggest outlier offensive developments of all time in Kawhi Leonard and be like "see guys anyone can improve". 

Jabari can shoot off the dribble but as his 36% on non rim 2s suggests he's not currently good enough off the dribble to justify a huge usage that would come with being the #1 option when he doesn't get to the rim a lot either. If he becomes an elite mid range scorer that's a pathway to being a #1 option but it'd have to be truly elite (like 50+% from midrange) to be worthwhile if he stays at this level at rim attempts (frequency and efficiency) . 

The FT rate is a good and valid point though, if he can continue to draw FTs at that rate that's a huge plus. I just question whether he will when the athletes get better and he's not getting to the rim that often. 

Maybe the more space will make it easier for him to get to the rim? That's one hopeful thought I keep coming back to. It feels like we're likely to find out in a few months and if we do I hope you're right. 

 

This ignores the part where Jabari is already an elite shooting prospect from outside. I mention Kawhi because HOW they scored in college INSIDE THE 3POINT LINE was similar, and spoke to some of the supposed knocks on Jabari's prospects as a #1 option. The main knock on Kawhi, and why people see him as an 'outlier offensive development', was that he was not a good outside shooter in college, and thus he was great at nothing. He developed that, and the rest of his game is very similar to where it was, with some typical NBA improvements to ball-handling and acumen, plus outlier defensive development (which is actually where his biggest improvement aside from 3point shooting came; he was considered a decent defensive prospect, but called sloppy and possibly low-IQ on that end). Also, I don't think anyone needs to shoot 50% from mid-range to be an elite #1 scorer. Steph Curry is a career 46% from mid-range; Kevin Durant: 45%; Kawhi: 45%; Paul George: 40%; Dirk Nowitzki: 47%; Devin Booker: 44%. The list goes on. And of those guys I listed, only Kawhi gets better than ~25-26% of their offense from inside 10 feet, at around 31%. The rest get basically 3/4 of their offense from the mid-range or outside, like Jabari.

Jabari needs to improve his % from mid-range, sure. That's absolutely true. It's why there's even a question of Chet at #1. But the idea that Jabari can't dribble well enough to be a main option is the point I was making in comparing him to Kawhi. Kawhi's handle is not elite now, nor is Jayson Tatum's, the other guy I compared him to in my last post. Jabari's handle is better than he gets credit for, owing I think to a mix of the long legs/high shorts combo making it look less smooth and the very deliberate one-to-two moves style in which he gets buckets (which is why I mentioned Siakam as well, though I understand that Siakam is WAY more inside dominant in his actual finishing spots).

[Albert Lergier 99]

45 minutes ago, TreyMachine said:

I'm going to be sad if we draft Chet, but I'm willing to trust this front office. We know they were aiming for Barnes and Wagner and what a draft that would he been if everything had fallen their way. 

Okeke and Cole were value picks at 15 and 16 (not many players better than them they could have picked), so I won't fault them there. 

I trust this FO to make the right decision. I'm just hoping they get it right. 

Having Wendell and Franz already next to JS Jr should not be a decision that you hesitate too much to make if you are Hammond and/or Weltman.

[ball junkie 277]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

I agree with the premise.  The problem is you have to have one of those clubs at 2-6 think they will get way more value at #1 in order to make that move.

If we have to stay at #1, Chet's probably my guy based upon some version of Dirk with exceptional rim protection.  Pairing him with Carter, (a healthy) JI and Okeke gives us a pretty good 4 man big rotation.  

If 2-6 are willing to make the trade, I want Shaedon.

Ok so Wilbur …these guys are making it easy to make my point …since we won the draft lottery I can summarize the 70 or more pages since then …One guy makes a post supporting Holmgren …another guy comes in with a post supporting Smith …then some but not as many for Banchero …then Ivey has some support …and then some people (duh me lol) make posts supporting Sharpe …no clear cut number 1 …since we have first pick make sure you get the guy you want plus other assets all things looking fairly even in terms of talent .

Question …so yesterday Givony had this to say about Holmgren and OKC:

The Thunder cycled through a rotating cast of big men all season, using undersized players including Isaiah Roby, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Mamadi Diakite and Jaylen Hoard as well as veteran stopgaps Derrick Favors and Mike Muscala. None of those players look like long-term starting-caliber solutions, which makes this a perfect opportunity to utilize the No. 2 pick to dramatically upgrade the OKC frontcourt in what's considered one of the best drafts for big men we've seen in some time -- four of the five top prospects in the class are either power forwards, centers or project to play both spots.

If the Magic elect to go with Jabari Smith at No. 1 as expected, that means the Thunder will see what we consider to be the draft's best prospect fall right into their laps in Holmgren.

The Thunder ranked last in NBA offensive efficiency last season, hitting the lowest percentage of 3-pointers in the league (32.3%), and rarely getting to the free throw line. Holmgren should help in all those areas immediately with the smarts, skill and unselfishness he brings.

Do you think we could utilize them as a trade partner to move down and get other assets ? …Why would the Magic take Smith if Givony and company consider him (Holmgren) the better prospect ? …Lastly, OKC scares the crap out of me …they are gonna get one of the big guys and Givony saying they are gonna make a play on Sharpe …they are sitting pretty and Presti knows what he is doing .

[Jason Funderburker 111]

3 hours ago, ball junkie said:

We can get similar value at 2,3,4,5,6 …that we could at one …we are not gonna get the number 1 pick every year …we have to use the advantages that come along with getting the number 1 to gather as many assets as possible …I’m not even a business man but I can see that lol .

Sorry if I sound like a broken record but I’m gonna be very disappointed if we just make our pick at 1 and do nothing else ….we are at rock bottom of the league …we have to do something to accelerate our growth as a team and franchise …12 straight years of futility wears on you .

Of course the trouble with not having a consensus top guy means that every team sees the value issue. Why would they trade up?

[Albert Lergier 99]

4 hours ago, ball junkie said:

We can get similar value at 2,3,4,5,6 …that we could at one …we are not gonna get the number 1 pick every year …we have to use the advantages that come along with getting the number 1 to gather as many assets as possible …I’m not even a business man but I can see that lol .

Sorry if I sound like a broken record but I’m gonna be very disappointed if we just make our pick at 1 and do nothing else ….we are at rock bottom of the league …we have to do something to accelerate our growth as a team and franchise …12 straight years of futility wears on you .

T Ross can be traded on draft night. It's going to be the first opportunity to move him...if it happens and when it happens he should yield some assets.

The 2 second rounders, assuming they add 2 more rookies to the roster (only the FO knows) could become very valuable if they can shoot some and play defense.

In free agency, CTMagicUK brought up TJ Warren. I think the FO will give him a call. If he wants to join the Magic for 2 or 3 years, he will have to follow the same process next year that Markelle and JI are going to be in due to major injuries...limited minutes, no back to backs early in the season.

In free agency....the FO could consider going after RFA, Anfernee Simons, only 23.

Another possible one? No more Bamba

Another possible one? Bol Bol instead of Robin Lopez

Don't loose perspective that we are in FULL REBUILD until next year's draft and free agency.

One more season of watching the team that will win it all at least once in the second part of the decade, 2025/29

 

[Nyce_1 311]

 

[ball junkie 277]

4 minutes ago, Jason Funderburker said:

Of course the trouble with not having a consensus top guy means that every team sees the value issue. Why would they trade up?

So all things being equal …you find a team that values the fit …I’ve seen teams picking in the top 10 that don’t want Sharpe because they are in win now mode as an example …there’s gotta be somebody we can fleece …jeez 2017 was no dominant number 1 … Celtics came out with Tatum at 3 and picks 

[Albert Lergier 99]

3 hours ago, Jay Magic said:

 

ELITE !!!!!   A stronger KD with less ball handling skills early is in his career. No complaints here.

[DestroidMengars 22]

This draft reminds me so much of 2013. All the back and forth about Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, etc., when both ended up falling. I really hope we don't end up with what amounts to an Anthony Bennett.

I don't know about you, but I sure miss the old days when players came into the draft with several years of college experience so you had a much better handle of what you were getting.

[ball junkie 277]

2 hours ago, DestroidMengars said:

This draft reminds me so much of 2013. All the back and forth about Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, etc., when both ended up falling. I really hope we don't end up with what amounts to an Anthony Bennett.

I don't know about you, but I sure miss the old days when players came into the draft with several years of college experience so you had a much better handle of what you were getting.

https://www.detroitbadboys.com/platform/amp/2022/6/9/23157291/shaedon-sharpe-scouting-report-2022-nba-draft-detroit-pistons
Success rates of drafting kids straight from HS looks pretty successful if you ask me …see link 

Edit:My point with all this when it comes to Shaedon Sharpe is: STOP SAYING HE’S A MAJOR RISK BECAUSE HE’S A HIGH SCHOOL PLAYER. If this history lesson teaches us anything, it’s that the guys that come straight out of high school actually might be more ready, since the reason they can make the jump straight out of high school is because of advanced skill, athleticism, basketball IQ, approach to the game, or a mix of all the above.

Edit: DestroidMengars …that was not meant for you but just anybody in general with the mindset it’s a risk because kids are HS coming to the NBA

[DestroidMengars 22]

I have no clue why you quoted me there. I'm all for considering Sharpe, especially if we can trade down to 3-4 and pick up other players/draft picks in the process. He's probably 1 or 2 on my board for the Magic. I don't feel like we have enough data on any of these players to comfortably project how they'll do in the NBA. I was referring to the old days when players came into the league with 3-4 years of college ball under their belt. One year or less of college ball isn't enough of a sample size to project any of these guys. 

[TreyMachine 395]

4 hours ago, DestroidMengars said:

This draft reminds me so much of 2013. All the back and forth about Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, etc., when both ended up falling. I really hope we don't end up with what amounts to an Anthony Bennett.

I don't know about you, but I sure miss the old days when players came into the draft with several years of college experience so you had a much better handle of what you were getting.

The exact thing I said 2 pages back. No reason Chet doesn’t drop 2 5, Paolo to 4, and Sharpe and Ivy go in the top 3 (assuming we take Smith at 1). 

The difference in this draft and 2013 is that I think there are 2-3 legitimate All Stars that come out of this top 10. 2013 had CJ McCollum at #10 and a surprise Giannis at #14. Other than Oladipo at #2, the draft was a bunch of busts.