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2022 NBA Draft Thread

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54 minutes ago, Albert Lergier said:
Originally posted on Hoops Wire  |  By Sam Amico  |  Last updated 6/10/22

The Magic are expected to host Gonzaga center Chet Holmgren for a workout next week, per Khobi Price of the Orlando Sentinel.

Orlando owns the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and Holmgren is said to be in play.

HERE WE GO..............LET THE COMPARISONS CONTINUE.

I think it’s wild we won’t work out the potential #1 draft pick until 7-10 days before we draft him. Turnaround times after the draft lottery are nuts.

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2) If you were making decisions for the Magic, how willing would you be to listen to offers from other teams for the first pick? If so (hypothetically), what would a potential offer look like in that situation that would make enough sense for Orlando?

(R.O.) The Magic should definitely listen to trade offers, as should every team. At the same time, no one is going to confuse Orlando for a team that’s ready to win any time soon, so a deal would either have to include a young, playmaking star or be a trade down for one of the other top picks. The No. 1 pick was traded back in 2017 when the Celtics moved down to No. 3 in a deal with Philly. The Sixers got Markelle Fultz out of it, and Boston drafted Jayson Tatum and picked up a future pick. That’s probably the framework I’d be most interested in if I’m Orlando.


5) Jeff Weltman and John Hammond have been building (and rebuilding) the Magic since they both arrived in town in 2017. Collectively - just taking a step back - what do you make of the young core that Orlando has assembled (through the draft and various trades)?

(R.O.) I like Orlando’s young core, but to me they really need a primary initiator to help everyone slot into more suitable roles. Franz Wagner is awesome, but it’s hard to see him as a No. 1 option who is running pick-and-roll and iso. on most possessions. I like Suggs as more of a complementary guard than a lead engine. Fultz has playmaking potential, but the shot is still broken and he’s a health risk. Cole Anthony would be perfect next to a bigger primary option to me. There are a lot of intriguing pieces here, but they need a star who can pressure the defense with his scoring while still getting teammates involved. To me, Banchero is the guy with the best chance to be that in this class, which I why I wrote that Orlando should take him. Even if the pick is Smith, the core is still impressive and could easily be the foundation of something good down the road if Smith lives up to the hype and someone from the Wagner/Anthony/Suggs/Fultz group emerges into a true primary.

 

 

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“I've been told that Paolo and his people are not prepared for him to even be in consideration for #1.. Under the impression Orlando is just choosing between Jabari & Chet” - Jake Fischer 

Via twitter

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For those that think Jabari Smith can't become a #1 scoring option, I ask you to watch Kawhi Leonard college stuff, research what guys were saying about him. Not great handle, scores best off one or two moves. And he didn't have Jabari's outside shot, not even close. I've never seen the Kevin Durant thing. Durant is a natural scorer like we haven't seen elsewhere. Jabari Smith isn't like that. But he is a scorer, make no mistake. The comparison to Klay Thompson is unfair, as Klay is basically a HOF-level catch-and-shoot guy, but it's questionable if he could be THE guy. Jabari already can score in isolation better than Klay, I think. There's a ton of tape of him scoring off pull-ups and turn-arounds, usually on one or two moves. Kawhi was certainly more of a 3 than Jabari, with a somewhat better handle. But it was still stiff, and he struggled tremendously using his left in college. He scored on a lot of mid-range pull-ups and turn-around moves, though, just like Jabari, and just like Jabari it was usually after one or two moves. Another note is that Tatum was also accused of having a stiff, upright handle that led to struggles with length at the rim (indeed, people still complain about that, if you're watching the finals). Tatum played in a super up-tempo offense and he was used more as a cutter than Jabari, but I see similarities in their supposed limitations as well.

 

What I'm saying is this, really: Jabari has shown he can shoot off the dribble in the mid-range. He just needs to improve that handle, which he certainly will, working with a good NBA coaching staff. Shooting off the dribble in the mid-range, getting to the line (underrated part of his game, he got there as often as Banchero and made a higher %), and being already a lights-out 3-point shooter, he has the most important tools to be a #1 scoring option in the modern NBA. The only thing that is an actual question mark is his lack of close-up dominance for a guy who's 6-10. And even that doesn't really bother me that much. It's weird, sure. It draws attention. But with his size and obvious touch, I don't worry much about it, as that really isn't his game. Offensively, I see him as projecting very well to be a #1 scoring option, like a mix of Kawhi, Tatum, and maybe a little more Siakam, if he figures out the 0-3 feet stuff. Maybe not as good a ball-handler as the first two, but a better outside shooter than Siakam (and maybe all of them), and bigger than all of them.

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1 hour ago, Jay Magic said:

“I've been told that Paolo and his people are not prepared for him to even be in consideration for #1.. Under the impression Orlando is just choosing between Jabari & Chet” - Jake Fischer 

Via twitter

I would assume it has to do with his lack of defensive desire. Our entire team is predicated on Long athleticism, switching, and defensive capability. Not exactly Paolo’s MO

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45 minutes ago, Jay Magic said:

He has a point here... similar frames...

VW tho to me has wider shoulders..

Interesting though

haha

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1 hour ago, Jay Magic said:

He has a point here... similar frames...

VW tho to me has wider shoulders..

Interesting though

At some point, when you’re tall enough and can shoot, you have the Yao Ming syndrome where it doesn’t matter the significance of your frame. Chet isn’t that, but the other guy… he’s 7’5” no doubt, right?

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1 hour ago, TreyMachine said:

At some point, when you’re tall enough and can shoot, you have the Yao Ming syndrome where it doesn’t matter the significance of your frame. Chet isn’t that, but the other guy… he’s 7’5” no doubt, right?

Supposedly VW is 7’2”, 229 lbs, but yes they do seem to have very similar frames.

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7 hours ago, Justin Jaudon said:

For those that think Jabari Smith can't become a #1 scoring option, I ask you to watch Kawhi Leonard college stuff, research what guys were saying about him. Not great handle, scores best off one or two moves. And he didn't have Jabari's outside shot, not even close. I've never seen the Kevin Durant thing. Durant is a natural scorer like we haven't seen elsewhere. Jabari Smith isn't like that. But he is a scorer, make no mistake. The comparison to Klay Thompson is unfair, as Klay is basically a HOF-level catch-and-shoot guy, but it's questionable if he could be THE guy. Jabari already can score in isolation better than Klay, I think. There's a ton of tape of him scoring off pull-ups and turn-arounds, usually on one or two moves. Kawhi was certainly more of a 3 than Jabari, with a somewhat better handle. But it was still stiff, and he struggled tremendously using his left in college. He scored on a lot of mid-range pull-ups and turn-around moves, though, just like Jabari, and just like Jabari it was usually after one or two moves. Another note is that Tatum was also accused of having a stiff, upright handle that led to struggles with length at the rim (indeed, people still complain about that, if you're watching the finals). Tatum played in a super up-tempo offense and he was used more as a cutter than Jabari, but I see similarities in their supposed limitations as well.

 

What I'm saying is this, really: Jabari has shown he can shoot off the dribble in the mid-range. He just needs to improve that handle, which he certainly will, working with a good NBA coaching staff. Shooting off the dribble in the mid-range, getting to the line (underrated part of his game, he got there as often as Banchero and made a higher %), and being already a lights-out 3-point shooter, he has the most important tools to be a #1 scoring option in the modern NBA. The only thing that is an actual question mark is his lack of close-up dominance for a guy who's 6-10. And even that doesn't really bother me that much. It's weird, sure. It draws attention. But with his size and obvious touch, I don't worry much about it, as that really isn't his game. Offensively, I see him as projecting very well to be a #1 scoring option, like a mix of Kawhi, Tatum, and maybe a little more Siakam, if he figures out the 0-3 feet stuff. Maybe not as good a ball-handler as the first two, but a better outside shooter than Siakam (and maybe all of them), and bigger than all of them.

I hardly think it's fair to take one of the biggest outlier offensive developments of all time in Kawhi Leonard and be like "see guys anyone can improve". 

Jabari can shoot off the dribble but as his 36% on non rim 2s suggests he's not currently good enough off the dribble to justify a huge usage that would come with being the #1 option when he doesn't get to the rim a lot either. If he becomes an elite mid range scorer that's a pathway to being a #1 option but it'd have to be truly elite (like 50+% from midrange) to be worthwhile if he stays at this level at rim attempts (frequency and efficiency) . 

The FT rate is a good and valid point though, if he can continue to draw FTs at that rate that's a huge plus. I just question whether he will when the athletes get better and he's not getting to the rim that often. 

Maybe the more space will make it easier for him to get to the rim? That's one hopeful thought I keep coming back to. It feels like we're likely to find out in a few months and if we do I hope you're right. 

 

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Interesting comparison.

Don't love comparing college to NBA stats. Hard to see that rim efficiency in particular would be comparable given one is playing in the NBA with all that that entails (bigger players, better athletes but also more space and better team mates) versus NCAA. 

Worth noting Khris Middleton is a great player, an All Star player and NBA champion but is absolutely not the #1 option.

 

 

 

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