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CTMagicUK

2022 NBA Draft Thread

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53 minutes ago, TreyMachine said:

Really appreciate the analysis, CT.  I’ve only watched game tape of Jabari so far. Paolo in some sense excites me more due to his alleged passing and finishing, but it’s so hard for me to judge whether defensive effort can truly be taught, which scares me for Paolo. Some guys just naturally “leave it all out there” (whom I interpreted to be Jabari) while others will give as much effort as they can when the ball is in their hand, then save their energy for when they have the ball again (whom I interpret to be Paolo).

Defensive effort concerns scare me as you have to play both sides of the ball to win. But hopefully with the right coaching and competitive spirit, we’ll be okay.

Yea I've got no clue about defensive effort.

I used to think it was either something you had or it wasn't. But Ben Simmons was a very lazy prospect on defense and he's 2 x All Defense. Jason Tatum is another guy who didn't really get rave reviews for his defense at Duke and has been good in the NBA. 

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4 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

Alright in the past couple of days I've watched (or re-watched) 3 full Duke games. The Gonzaga game. The game @FSU and the UNC final four game. 

I think the defensive concerns around Paolo are definitely warranted. In fact I think I have concerns about everything he does without the ball in his hands. 

Defensively it just feels like he sleep walks through possessions. In the 3 games I saw missed rotations, missed assignments, lackadaisical close outs, ball watching instead of boxing out (Leaky Black had like 4 OREBs in the final 4 game because Paolo was ball watching). The thing is i've also seen him switch on to guards and keep them in front, make great contests at the rim, use his quick hands to strip the ball down low and make good rotations on help defense. He can do it and he's got all the tools to do it. He's not Vuc where he just lacks the physical tools to have an impact I think he can at least get to the point where he doesn't hurt you on defense. I hope the culture that Mosely has started to instill here of hustling and working hard and making winning plays can rub off on him a little on that end.

On offense he's not super active without the ball, he's not running hard to fill the lanes in transition, he's not cutting hard off ball or rolling hard after setting a screen. Im not super concerned about that though to be honest, he's had the ball in his hands his whole life he probably hasn't ever had to consider playing off ball and I think he'll learn quickly that he can score a lot of easy points by moving off ball on this team playing with some of our guys who are really great passers (Fultz, Suggs, Franz, WCJ). 

The handle is good but it's not elite. For a 6'10 PF its definitely well above average but I wouldn't trust him to consistently handle the ball full court against pressure. He picked the ball up early and had the ball stripped on a dribble move a couple of times. He's definitely going to need to play with a real PG at least at first. 

All that said the good stuff is incredibly special. I buy the jumper massively, he makes 20 footers off the dribble (and not 1 dribble but like a string of dribble moves) so I really don't worry about him becoming a good 3 point shooter as he develops. The passing is special, lobs, drop offs, kick outs, hit a heads in transition, extra passes. He scored 21 points in a half against Gonzaga and looked genuinely un-guardable (but then he didn't score in the second half...). He's so difficult to stop getting to the rim when he finds a driving lane. As a transition ball handler he's terrific with his combination of physical attributes + handle+ passing. 

I'm super excited to see him play in the NBA. 

 

Paolo is a good player, probably an NBA star is in the cards for him, considered the best player in this draft....BUT if he the best fit for the Magic the way the team is structured at this very moment?

And I know it might be too early to ask but still......

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9 hours ago, Albert Lergier said:

Paolo is a good player, probably an NBA star is in the cards for him, considered the best player in this draft....BUT if he the best fit for the Magic the way the team is structured at this very moment?

And I know it might be too early to ask but still......

I think having 3 front court players who can defend, dribble, drive, pass, and shoot will be a mismatch nightmare for opposing teams.  Remember Hedo initiating the offense and the mismatches he created.  Now our entire frontcourt can do similar things.  My only doubt is coach Mosley, I understand he's known for player development but I hope he and his staff create an offense that can play to our players strength.  Obviously he's a new head coach and although I'm thrilled with his energy and player relations he did leave a lot to be desired with his in game management/adjustments. He has to grow as much as a coach as our players do on the court.  I have faith we'll get there.

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Both our Finals runs were driven by ridiculous Front courts. I mean Penny and Nick Anderson ruin this narrative a tiny bit but look at the front courts from both finals runs. That's why we got there, hands down. I mean, Shaq was the penultimate power center right in the middle of centers dominating the league, if it wasn't for MJ. Grant was the combo forward teams where just starting to realize and Dennis Scott was 15 years before his true time in the NBA. Fast forward to the late 2000's and Hedo,Rashard and Dwight. I actually think the current group is fits this with 2022 relevance. WCJ will be the defensive force, Paolo will be Hedo, of course and Franz can easily be a better Lewis. Mostly because he is more versatile. Can Any of them be a sniper like Lewis? They all can, everyone in 2022 shoots 3's. It remains to be seen if any of them can be clutch like he was. You can't just anoint any of the rookies as the best shooters, even Jason Kidd had a 3 point shot, eventually.

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One thing i want to be the first to say. How many years before Paolo is center sized? Yes i know he is a 4 and judging by his frame he will always be a 4 and moves like a 4. 

But he is so young, say he grows an inch and gains 30 pounds? Is he maybe Jokic light?

 

HOF center anyone? LOL

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 there was significant suspicion amongst rival executives that Holmgren’s camp preferred he land in Oklahoma City and not Orlando. While rumors had been flying around the league for a couple weeks about what was going on, most of them unfounded and overly speculative, as I understand things, at least one concrete maneuver was taken to steer Holmgren away from the Magic: according to multiple sources with knowledge of the situation, Holmgren bailed early on the last day of his Orlando visit, conducting a brief on-court shooting workout that he cut short. While I don’t know whether that impacted anything with the Magic’s decision at No. 1, objectively, it’s very hard to use a high-stakes draft pick on a player that doesn’t truly want to be part of your team.

https://www.si.com/.amp/nba/2022/06/24/nba-draft-paolo-banchero-chet-holmgren-jabari-smith-final-thoughts

So I posted a few days ago about the booing going on with Chet at the Magic draft party …looks like the feeling was mutual …and patting myself on the back I’ve been saying this about Chet and his disinterest in the Magic …way back 100 pages or so ago …as soon as I saw that TMZ video to me it was clear …and I said so .

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The sigh of relief I had when we didn't pick Chet! I think he'll be great when he can play, but I foresee a lot of downtime and a short career. His dad last a few years in college before his knees went. 82 game seasons playing against grown men is a whole different world

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“Banchero's on-court production and scoring have carried him to a virtual tie with Holmgren in the model's projections, despite him going No. 3 in Jonathan Givony's latest mock draft. Among our top 100, he ranks:

• No. 1 by the NCAA production-based model

• No. 1 by the model from AAU stats

• No. 3 in points produced, a measure of offensive contributions created by Dean Oliver

Banchero's strong performances at events such as the Nike EYBL (AAU) in 2019 (he averaged 22 points on 51.5% shooting along with 2.5 blocks per game) and the NCAA tournament, during which he averaged 18.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists while shooting 53% from 3 amid Duke's Final Four run, have been impressive and consistent enough that the model views him as the best prospect in the draft before the expert ranking is factored in.”

This is predraft content but I don’t believe it was posted here. In addition to what was shared above, the stats show that Paulo is 51% likely to become an all-star (tied with Chet).

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/34122501/2022-nba-draft-projections-best-prospects-most-overrated-most-underrated

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4 hours ago, hootie249 said:

One thing i want to be the first to say. How many years before Paolo is center sized? Yes i know he is a 4 and judging by his frame he will always be a 4 and moves like a 4. 

But he is so young, say he grows an inch and gains 30 pounds? Is he maybe Jokic light?

 

HOF center anyone? LOL

He gained about 35 pounds from his senior year in high school to his first and only year in college.....you might be right, we probably drafted a center. 

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5 hours ago, hootie249 said:

Both our Finals runs were driven by ridiculous Front courts. I mean Penny and Nick Anderson ruin this narrative a tiny bit but look at the front courts from both finals runs. That's why we got there, hands down. I mean, Shaq was the penultimate power center right in the middle of centers dominating the league, if it wasn't for MJ. Grant was the combo forward teams where just starting to realize and Dennis Scott was 15 years before his true time in the NBA. Fast forward to the late 2000's and Hedo,Rashard and Dwight. I actually think the current group is fits this with 2022 relevance. WCJ will be the defensive force, Paolo will be Hedo, of course and Franz can easily be a better Lewis. Mostly because he is more versatile. Can Any of them be a sniper like Lewis? They all can, everyone in 2022 shoots 3's. It remains to be seen if any of them can be clutch like he was. You can't just anoint any of the rookies as the best shooters, even Jason Kidd had a 3 point shot, eventually.

Our both runs to the finals were lead by our centers, Shaq in 1995 and Dwight in 2009 but without the 3 point shooters we would not have reached this plateau.

The 3 point shooting is required if you are going to be the best team in the league. We lack this vital weapon....we were 28th last season....and "The Human Torch" is going to be traded....he publicly announced it...wants to play for a contender. Something he deserves.

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12 hours ago, hootie249 said:

One thing i want to be the first to say. How many years before Paolo is center sized? Yes i know he is a 4 and judging by his frame he will always be a 4 and moves like a 4. 

But he is so young, say he grows an inch and gains 30 pounds? Is he maybe Jokic light?

 

HOF center anyone? LOL

I actually think Paolo should slim down rather than add more weight. He gained a lot of bulk between high school and college and I don't think he needs it to be successful I'd rather him be leaner and more agile than stronger especially because I envision him to be more perimeter oriented than he was at Duke. 

Plus he's not nearly a good enough rim protector or ball screen defender to play the 5 defensively. His ball screen defense in general needs serious work for when we reach playoff basketball. 

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