Jay Magic 1,233 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 Guys i really really really want Jaden Hardy. I think he has the potential to be excellent. Especially as a scorer. A special special scorer. He is offensively equipped as any prospect i have seen for a while. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
O_SteveO 102 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 6 hours ago, CTMagicUK said: Chet Holmgren fun with stats: Heres a list of freshman in Barttorviks database who took more than 100 attempts at the rim, hit over 70% of them, more than 100 attempts from 3 and hit over 35% of them: Lonzo Ball Ben McLemore Doug McDermott Chet Holmgren What a bizarre list. 2 wing scorers, a point guard and a 7'1 big. (Chet shot 84% at the rim but if I set the filter at 80% instead of 70% only he showed up lol) There are 12 players who shot over 100 attempts at the rim and hit over 80% of them as freshman. There are a couple of no names but 7 of the 12 were former 1st round picks, 1 is Chet and 1 is Tacko Fall. Notable names in the drafted pile are Anthony Davis, Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes, Willie Caulie-Stein and Obi Toppin. (I was amazed Zion wasn't on this list so I checked he shot something like 78% at the rim but his volume was near double of most of the guys here. He shot over 300 attempts at the rim in a single college season. What a beast man honestly. Hope he gets healthy.) Anyway of all the guys on this list Chet was assisted on the least number of his makes (52.4%). I.e. he was self creating more looks at the rim at this high rate than anyone else. On the other side of the ball. Only 7 freshman in the database have had a defensive rebound% greater than or equal to 25, a block % greater than or equal to 10 and a steal % greater than or equal to 1. Of the 7, 2 weren't really prospects (or haven't been yet), 2 were second rounders (Tony Mitchell who was an incredible athlete but nothing much else and Neemias Queta who's in the G League) and the other 2 were Joel Embiid and Mo Bamba. I also did a query for playmaking freshman big men. This one is taller than or equal to 6'11, with AST% greater than or equal to 10, TOV% less than or equal to 20, and AST:TO greater than or equal to 0.8 (it's essentially trying to capture NBA sized bigs who can pass and take care of the ball a bit). The query brought back 8 guys, 4 were non prospects and the other 4 were: Karl Anthony Towns Evan Mobley Deandre Ayton Chet Holmgren Anyway none of this necessarily means anything these are all arbitrary filters I imposed (although I tried to use whole roundish numbers and stuff rather than arbitrary like specific values that only captured good players) they're not necessarily indicative of anything because a lot of these bring up nobodies as well as NBA players. But it is definitely an indication of Chet's statistical dominance and his uniqueness as a prospect that he can show up in these very limited lists with some guys who were considered top prospects in their classes and some of whom have gone on to be great NBA players. (These are all on Barttorvik and use the minimum 15 games played filter as a standard) I’m not in love with Chet at all, but this is very good research. Good job CT Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ball junkie 277 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 PER measures offensive performance …The Magic were last in the league in offensive efficiency. What is a good PER ? All time great season 35.00 + Borderline All Star 20.0 to 22.5 2nd offensive option 18.0 to 20.0 3rd offensive option 16.5 to 18.0 Slightly above average 15.0 to 16.5 Random Magic PER’s … WCJ 18.4 …Mo Wagner 18.1 …Markelle 17.7 …J. Issac 17.3…Mo Bamba 16.5 …F Wagner 14.8 …R Lopez 13.7 …C. Anthony 13.5 …Chuma 12.0 Outside of Markelle and Cole(he was still below average)the rest of our guards were 10 or below …Suggs and Hampton in the 8’s…as an aside Fultz 3 point point percentage was 23 % …and I love Fultz but we all know lack of shooting does not help spacing . Why are we drafting another big ? If indeed we are …I guess you could say we were tanking that’s why the offense was so bad …but our bigs still were able to have respectable PER’s even under these circumstances ….Draft Ivey …he’s now being lumped with the supposed top 3 https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/orl/season/2022/seasontype/2/table/game/sort/PER/dir/desc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A Better DJ & Photographer 455 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 I'll be happy with anyone but stick boy, even if we reach or trade. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CTMagicUK 1,476 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 4 hours ago, ball junkie said: PER measures offensive performance …The Magic were last in the league in offensive efficiency. What is a good PER ? All time great season 35.00 + Borderline All Star 20.0 to 22.5 2nd offensive option 18.0 to 20.0 3rd offensive option 16.5 to 18.0 Slightly above average 15.0 to 16.5 Random Magic PER’s … WCJ 18.4 …Mo Wagner 18.1 …Markelle 17.7 …J. Issac 17.3…Mo Bamba 16.5 …F Wagner 14.8 …R Lopez 13.7 …C. Anthony 13.5 …Chuma 12.0 Outside of Markelle and Cole(he was still below average)the rest of our guards were 10 or below …Suggs and Hampton in the 8’s…as an aside Fultz 3 point point percentage was 23 % …and I love Fultz but we all know lack of shooting does not help spacing . Why are we drafting another big ? If indeed we are …I guess you could say we were tanking that’s why the offense was so bad …but our bigs still were able to have respectable PER’s even under these circumstances ….Draft Ivey …he’s now being lumped with the supposed top 3 https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/orl/season/2022/seasontype/2/table/game/sort/PER/dir/desc PER isn't an offensive metric. It factors in a wide array of offensive and defensive stats. It's also incredibly flawed as evidenced by the fact that Mo Wagner was 2nd on the team in it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ball junkie 277 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 Should you use PER in your research? Heck. Yes. Again, PER is not a perfect measure. But by including it in your research we can get a better understanding of its effectiveness as a metric — something that is currently lacking due to the problems we’ve mentioned above. You’ll also be able to compare the efficacy of other metrics compared to PER, giving us a baseline of metric efficiency. The only way to cure the problems we have with PER are to actually observe PER in data science settings — even if we don’t find it to be the metric we rely on. Conclusion Just like George Mikan shouldn’t be considered the greatest basketball player of all time, we shouldn’t consider PER the GOAT of basketball analytics. Smart teams seemed to have moved on from using it as a measure of player evaluation. Hopefully, broadcasters and media members will move away from it too as we get more knowledgeable about how the game of basketball should be measured statistically. At the same time, PER is the cultural keystone of basketball analytics. I’m not joking when I say I think it should be enshrined in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame. It might fail some simple scientific principles, but without it we might still be stuck in the dark ages of basketball statistics. As data scientists, we should revere what John Hollinger did — and then learn to do better. https://towardsdatascience.com/problems-with-per-in-the-nba-fa0e611543e2 Why are we drafting another big ? If indeed are are … Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ball junkie 277 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 Maybe we’ll pick him …maybe we won’t …but he is certainly a candidate …he only mentions 6 teams, Orlando being one …I also think we along with OKC were where he worked out first . Question …not in this video but I have seen other videos where he states every team he has worked out for has measured his vertical leaping ability …but teams haven’t told him his score …nor has it been reported publicly …why is that ? …I know guys that do it at the combine it is made public knowledge or at least I think it is . My theory is it must be pretty good and teams wanna keep his stock down by not letting that info get out … Edit: he took full responsibility for not playing at UK …he didn’t try to put the blame on anybody else. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CTMagicUK 1,476 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, ball junkie said: Should you use PER in your research? Heck. Yes. Again, PER is not a perfect measure. But by including it in your research we can get a better understanding of its effectiveness as a metric — something that is currently lacking due to the problems we’ve mentioned above. You’ll also be able to compare the efficacy of other metrics compared to PER, giving us a baseline of metric efficiency. The only way to cure the problems we have with PER are to actually observe PER in data science settings — even if we don’t find it to be the metric we rely on. Conclusion Just like George Mikan shouldn’t be considered the greatest basketball player of all time, we shouldn’t consider PER the GOAT of basketball analytics. Smart teams seemed to have moved on from using it as a measure of player evaluation. Hopefully, broadcasters and media members will move away from it too as we get more knowledgeable about how the game of basketball should be measured statistically. At the same time, PER is the cultural keystone of basketball analytics. I’m not joking when I say I think it should be enshrined in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame. It might fail some simple scientific principles, but without it we might still be stuck in the dark ages of basketball statistics. As data scientists, we should revere what John Hollinger did — and then learn to do better. https://towardsdatascience.com/problems-with-per-in-the-nba-fa0e611543e2 Why are we drafting another big ? If indeed are are … Yes. Data scientists should probably feel ok using PER as part of their analysis. Basketball fans however should not. Steph Curry was 23rd in PER this season. Here are some players ahead of him Clint Capella, Domantas Sabonis, Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, Dejounte Murray, Jarrett Allen and Montrez Harrell (!!!). You might notice from this that PER heavily favours bigs because they generally score efficiently around the rim and grab rebounds. Two things PER weighs favourably. But unless you're going to argue that Golden State would have been a better team by trading Curry for one of the names above I can't see how we should be using it in our analysis to argue definitively we shouldn't draft a big. Chet Holmgren for what it's worth (nothing) had a PER over 30 last season in college. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
harley 61 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 14 hours ago, TreyMachine said: Here’s a question: where is everyone actually watching the draft? Is anyone going to the Amway draft party? If I didn’t live in Australia I would go to Amway got sure. I def gonna get to a few games this year, and whenever we make the finals I’m moving to Orlando for the month. Must say the last year or so with all the new Magic pods, young roster, pick 1 ( hopefully a rebrand back to the original logo) etc it’s pretty heartwarming from afar. Reckon we’re a sleeping giant, would love to see Amway packed each night. It sucks seeing it so empty. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Soul Bro 1,419 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 To Junkie’s PER post, if we’re drafting primary on need, I think it’s glaringly obvious our greatest need is at SG. Suggs, Anthony and Hampton were pretty awful last year. That said, I truly believe WeltHam aren’t going to draft based on need and will instead draft the best player according to their evaluations. If that equals a SG, great, but it looks like it’ll be a big right now. (Btw, Ivey is now growing on me). 1 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ball junkie 277 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Soul Bro said: To Junkie’s PER post, if we’re drafting primary on need, I think it’s glaringly obvious our greatest need is at SG. Suggs, Anthony and Hampton were pretty awful last year. That said, I truly believe WeltHam aren’t going to draft based on need and will instead draft the best player according to their evaluations. If that equals a SG, great, but it looks like it’ll be a big right now. (Btw, Ivey is now growing on me). Plus one Soul …I mean it doesn’t take a Rocket Scientist to see that …Gosh the numbers were so far down Sheesh …and yeah on the Ivey thing too …we are stocked with decent bigs. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hootie249 293 Report post Posted June 20, 2022 Gonna have to watch Ivey videos the next few days. I just never saw the pure Morant speed, heck Fox looked faster coming out. Other then that, yeah his shot looked serviceable and we need a scorer. So frustrating! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
