2022 NBA Draft Thread

[Albert Lergier 99]

Happy Father's Day to all the good dads in the forum.

[Albert Lergier 99]

9 hours ago, A Better DJ & Photographer said:

Based on past seasons we can't expect more than 20-30 great games out of JI before being injured again. Anything more than that is a bonus! We definitely can't build around him. IMO Smith starts and JI comes off the bench.

The important thing is to keep JI and the players that are coming back from injuries HEALTHY through out the whole season.

Like I've said before, these players, especially Markelle and JI, on limited minutes and no back-to-backs early in the season, is what I think is going to happen.

JI should be the first big off the bench and play behind both Wendell and Jabari if "Jabari a Magic" on June 23.

[JJZFL 618]

6 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

……

I also think there's a level of risk management involved in this for front offices that they have to consider. They have to be able to justify these moves to keep their jobs and if they make a trade out of the top 3 and one or all of those top 3 are great they will be looking for a new job. Whereas if they draft someone everyone thought was a top 3 guy and he's not quite as good as one of the others you can at least justify it. Only one of the three executives who could have drafted Luka Doncic but didn't still has a job and that's probably because he still got Trae Young. (Funnily enough the guy who did draft him also doesn't have a job but that's for entirely different reasons lol)

I think you’re right, but it’s also one of the reasons I have less confidence than many others in the draft (unless there is a generational player when we get the first pick, and by now we should all see how unlikely that is).  The incentives you describe above so well, basically a version of CYA, may work against getting the best player.  Their desires to protect their jobs are completely understandable, but not necessarily congruent with the interests of the Magic.  To take the example you cite and change it, if #4 or #5 turn into the next great player, but our GMs don’t draft him because they want to protect their jobs even though they thought he had more potential than the top 3, that’s not good for us.  

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

15 minutes ago, JJZFL said:

I think you’re right, but it’s also one of the reasons I have less confidence than many others in the draft (unless there is a generational player when we get the first pick, and by now we should all see how unlikely that is).  The incentives you so we’ll describe above, basically a version of CYA, may work against getting the best player.  Their desires to protect their jobs are completely understandable, but not necessarily congruent with the interests of the Magic.  To take the example you cite and change it, if #4 or #5 turn into the next great player, but our GMs don’t draft him because they want to protect their jobs even though they thought he had more potential than the top 3, that’s not good for us.  

Yea. That's absolutely true. Fortunately virtually every front office is facing this so it's not just an us thing. But I think its just easier to take those chances the further down the draft you get too like at pick 7 if you reach for a guy in the consensus 11-16 range that's not as big of a deal. Or at pick 18 the players picked after you aren't being viewed as future stars most of the time anyway so you can take more risks. 

To be honest this front office haven't shied away from taking risks in the draft even when it went against consensus. Franz at 8 wasn't really a consensus pick. Chuma Okeke was mocked a lot lower on account of his injuries. They picked Thon Maker at 10 that was a bit out of nowhere and high risk. Weltman was part of picking Cabaclo in Toronto. They picked Giannis at 15 famously. 

And our guys have got pretty good job security given that they just signed new deals. 

I think if they actually truly believed someone else was the best player in the draft they'd find a way to get them. We can only trust (or hope) that they're making the decisions for the right reasons not the wrong ones but considering they've consistently made decisions that were unpopular among fans I'm not actually too worried about that. 

[JJZFL 618]

2 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

Yea. That's absolutely true. Fortunately virtually every front office is facing this so it's not just an us thing. But I think its just easier to take those chances the further down the draft you get too like at pick 7 if you reach for a guy in the consensus 11-16 range that's not as big of a deal. Or at pick 18 the players picked after you aren't being viewed as future stars most of the time anyway so you can take more risks. 

To be honest this front office haven't shied away from taking risks in the draft even when it went against consensus. Franz at 8 wasn't really a consensus pick. Chuma Okeke was mocked a lot lower on account of his injuries. They picked Thon Maker at 10 that was a bit out of nowhere and high risk. Weltman was part of picking Cabaclo in Toronto. They picked Giannis at 15 famously. 

And our guys have got pretty good job security given that they just signed new deals. 

I think if they actually truly believed someone else was the best player in the draft they'd find a way to get them. We can only trust (or hope) that they're making the decisions for the right reasons not the wrong ones but considering they've consistently made decisions that were unpopular among fans I'm not actually too worried about that. 

Hope you’re right but as you said earlier, in this case they may not be worrying about fan opinion. It’s more about who they answer to. 

[Luke_FfS 247]

Sometimes the desire to protect your job leads you to evaluating to much, mediocrity, and finally lose your job.

[Nyce_1 311]

8 hours ago, Jay Magic said:

Didnt know this. Thanks

I guess in regards to us no mock draft is worth paying attention too loooool 

WeltHam do what they want and I trust them wholeheartedly 

Nah, they're good 48hrs from the draft. They're reliable this week.

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

Chet Holmgren fun with stats:

Heres a list of freshman in Barttorviks database who took more than 100 attempts at the rim, hit over 70% of them, more than 100 attempts from 3 and hit over 35% of them: 

Lonzo Ball

Ben McLemore

Doug McDermott

Chet Holmgren 

What a bizarre list. 2 wing scorers, a point guard and a 7'1 big. (Chet shot 84% at the rim but if I set the filter at 80% instead of 70% only he showed up lol)

There are 12 players who shot over 100 attempts at the rim and hit over 80% of them as freshman. There are a couple of no names but 7 of the 12 were former 1st round picks, 1 is Chet and 1 is Tacko Fall. 

Notable names in the drafted pile are Anthony Davis, Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes, Willie Caulie-Stein and Obi Toppin. 

(I was amazed Zion wasn't on this list so I checked he shot something like 78% at the rim but his volume was near double of most of the guys here. He shot over 300 attempts at the rim in a single college season. What a beast man honestly. Hope he gets healthy.) 

Anyway of all the guys on this list Chet was assisted on the least number of his makes (52.4%). I.e. he was self creating more looks at the rim at this high rate than anyone else.

On the other side of the ball. Only 7 freshman in the database have had a defensive rebound% greater than or equal to 25, a block % greater than or equal to 10 and a steal % greater than or equal to 1. 

Of the 7, 2 weren't really prospects (or haven't been yet), 2 were second rounders (Tony Mitchell who was an incredible athlete but nothing much else and Neemias Queta who's in the G League) and the other 2 were Joel Embiid and Mo Bamba. 

I also did a query for playmaking freshman big men. This one is taller than or equal to 6'11, with AST% greater than or equal to 10, TOV% less than or equal to 20, and AST:TO greater than or equal to 0.8 (it's essentially trying to capture NBA sized bigs who can pass and take care of the ball a bit). The query brought back 8 guys, 4 were non prospects and the other 4 were: 

Karl Anthony Towns

Evan Mobley

Deandre Ayton

Chet Holmgren

Anyway none of this necessarily means anything these are all arbitrary filters I imposed (although I tried to use whole roundish numbers and stuff rather than arbitrary like specific values that only captured good players) they're not necessarily indicative of anything because a lot of these bring up nobodies as well as NBA players. But it is definitely an indication of Chet's statistical dominance and his uniqueness as a prospect that he can show up in these very limited lists with some guys who were considered top prospects in their classes and some of whom have gone on to be great NBA players. 

 

(These are all on Barttorvik and use the minimum 15 games played filter as a standard) 

[TreyMachine 395]

Here’s a question: where is everyone actually watching the draft? Is anyone going to the Amway draft party?

[Nyce_1 311]

17 minutes ago, TreyMachine said:

Here’s a question: where is everyone actually watching the draft? Is anyone going to the Amway draft party?

I'm contemplating going to the arena with my boys. #1 pick is historic but that means no twitter fun for me; something that's become a ritual on draft day over the years. 

 

If I stay home, espn on TV, then a few draft live streams on the computer. 

[Jay Magic 1,233]

36 minutes ago, Nyce_1 said:

I'm contemplating going to the arena with my boys. #1 pick is historic but that means no twitter fun for me; something that's become a ritual on draft day over the years. 

 

If I stay home, espn on TV, then a few draft live streams on the computer. 

Go with your sons

[Natesroom 197]

Me and 4 other ppl be at the arena - if your a ST holder you can sit in the 100 series, everything else is GA.