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CTMagicUK

2022 NBA Draft Thread

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We gotta draft the hungriest player out of the three, who wants to be great? Who gets mad for coming up short? There’s a difference in who gets their shot blocked and now is reserved, compared to getting blocked and wanting revenge. All 3 players have potential to be great but whoever has that mindset will be the best of the 3. Difference between having a lonzo or Tatum 

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6 hours ago, Wilbur said:

I look at that Smith video and I see Al Horford with potentially a better shot (Horford is 36% from 3 for his career).  Am I wrong?

Assuming I'm not, that's a really valuable player.  Then again, Horford (a 5 time All-Star) is in year 15 and just now made the finals. 

Do you pass up that player at #1?

Not at all alike to me. Smith is a lockdown perimeter defender (Horford’s an inside guy), and Smith is a lethal outside shooter (whereas Horford’s average).

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54 minutes ago, ball junkie said:

Not a bad comp Wilbur …Horford was an inside player when young but as he’s aged as gotten more and more adept at the 3 …and I agree …he’s crucial for the Celts right now …to me he’s more physical and inside banging type player than Smith …Smith already adept at the 3 …Do you think Smith has star capability ?  …3-Level scorer ?

UNEQUIVOCALLY YES!

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4 minutes ago, ball junkie said:

Not a bad comp Wilbur …Horford was an inside player when young but as he’s aged as gotten more and more adept at the 3 …and I agree …he’s crucial for the Celts right now …to me he’s more physical and inside banging type player than Smith …Smith already adept at the 3 …Do you think Smith has star capability ?  …3-Level scorer ?

I am a huge Horford fan.  Horford is one of those glue guy's with a huge basketball IQ that makes the right play consistently and makes those around him better.  Smith could develop into a two way player with three level scoring and the ability to create, but I didn't get from the video above that he has a scorer's mentality (think KD/Carmello).  Thus, I see his ceiling as more likely a Horford type good defender with good offensive game that is a great compliment to his teammates.  If Fultz or Wagner were #1 type scorers, Smith is probably a no-brainer Pick #1. But the Magic already have a number of really good young players that look like they might develop into good supporting cast members.  Do they use Pick #1 on a player that is likely another supporting cast member?  

I don't agree with the logic behind the position the Magic can't use Pick #1 on a high upside low floor guy for fear of failure. 

First, when you look at draft history, so many great players weren't #1 picks.  Clearly, when there isn't a Shaq, Duncan or Lebron, taking the safe pick doesn't always pay off.  How many teams wish they had taken the gamble on Giannis?  He clearly had the greatest upside, but his floor was so low.  The Cavs and Washington get ripped for taking huge upside low floor guys at #1 that didn't pay off, but Portland gets a pass for taking Oden over KD.  Why?  I seem to recall the consensus at the time being KD had higher upside, but he couldn't lift his bodyweight and Oden was more guaranteed. Injury had other plans. 

Second, the Magic have used picks in the 5-10 range to accumulated a pretty promising supporting cast.  Maybe one of them will continue to develop into a star, but can they rely on it?  Having Pick #1 means the Magic won't be in the situation they've found themselves in many times before where they are rumored to really want a player that goes a spot or two ahead of them.  They get whoever they want.  Shouldn't they want the guy that has the highest upside and forget about the floor?  If Pick #1 turns into Kwame Brown 2.0, the rebuild based upon this current collection of talent in Orlando isn't going to look drastically different than if you get another good supporting cast member.  However, if Pick #1 is the guy that develops into a star, there is a sea change in the Orlando rebuild. Isn't the upside worth the risk?

I'm enjoying the debate on here as to the player with the most star potential.  I just think if Weltham decides Sharpe isn't the the player with the greatest chance of being a star, he needs to have a better reason than "There's no video of him playing in college."  

     

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55 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

I don't think they're that similar. Horford plays like a big man whereas Jabari plays like a wing. 

I don't see wing in Smith's game at all currently.  I see high post/low post and catch and shoot 3.

Horford is 35 now, but go back and look at him with the Hawks.

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13 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I don't see wing in Smith's game at all currently.  I see high post/low post and catch and shoot 3.

Horford is 35 now, but go back and look at him with the Hawks.

Over half of Smith's offense are 3 pointers, for most of his time in Atlanta Horford wasn't even attempting 3s. Jabari's s also a much better perimeter defender than Horford has ever been.

Inversely Horford is a much better rebounder, rim protector and post player.

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1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

https://pudding.cool/2019/03/hype/

If I understand correctly they say Brad Beal is "mediocre" so I'm questioning the methodology that seems to put a wet blanket on the percentages of obtaining a great player. 

Interesting Stats and graphs in that link. 

27% of the 1,563 top-ranked high school players made it to the NBA and only 25% made it past their two-year rookie contract

That stat is for any HS ranked top 1-100. 

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3 minutes ago, Natesroom said:

Interesting Stats and graphs in that link. 

27% of the 1,563 top-ranked high school players made it to the NBA and only 25% made it past their two-year rookie contract

But perhaps the top 100 is too broad of a categorization. Surely the top 10 players will make it to the NBA more often, right?

Players ranked in the top 10 certainly appear to have slightly better odds—a full 84% of them eventually made it to the NBA. Though with 60 draft picks a year, you might expect that number to be higher.

Of the other 34 players drafted straight out of high school, 94% made it past their rookie contract, with 55% eventually becoming mediocre or better NBA players.

10 of those 34 were Stars and 5 of those players were Superstars …almost a 50 % chance to get a Star or Superstar with players ranked in top 10 HS and skipping college 

 

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Just now, All Eyes On Me said:

So, this is a vote for Chet, right?! :)

Chet do got that grit to him which usually leads to success. But lately we’ve been hearing a lot of Jabari. Usually I don’t believe what media says they are hear from our front office, but last yr I didn’t believe when reporters said Toronto might take Barnes over Suggs so who knows. I am on the Chet bandwagon now but we’ll see how magic feel after they bring them in for a visit.

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1 hour ago, J-Mac said:

We gotta draft the hungriest player out of the three, who wants to be great? Who gets mad for coming up short? There’s a difference in who gets their shot blocked and now is reserved, compared to getting blocked and wanting revenge. All 3 players have potential to be great but whoever has that mindset will be the best of the 3. Difference between having a lonzo or Tatum 

From the sound of it that's Sharpe. It's not terribly common to see a guy make THIS MUCH of a fuss about going #1 in spite of a small track record this often. And whether that's ego because he wants more money or if it's (as borrowed from GTA V) the Lamar Davis school of thought of "I don't care what it is, if there's **** to be won I want MY name on it." The front office has to see for itself if Sharpe is simply spoiled and entitled overgrown child like the character I'm mentioning and wants it with as little work as possible or if that's how he approaches everything because he's THAT ruthless and competitive in a good way like many legends before him in spite of his limited track record. Although if this was the case, why the hell didn't you play? And yet you're not THIS GOOD without absolutely busting your ass.

 

It's a real pickle. It sucks because as a fan that's all I really have to go off of

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I posted this in the offseason thread, but it does bear repeating here in terms of options. The draft takes place 6/23, Bamba/Bol qualifying offers have to be made by 6/29, and Moe Wagner's contract becomes guaranteed 6/30. Obviously, our front office will do everything possible to keep others guessing about their plans, so don't expect a qualifying offer to either, or movement on waiving/guaranteeing until at least the 24th. They won't give any insight away by tipping their hands on plans for these three bigs that are currently on the roster. 

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