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CTMagicUK

2022 NBA Draft Thread

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This is risk analysis 101

Jabri - Floor: Rashard Lewis Light; Ceiling: Kevin Durant with less handles and better defense 

Chet - Floor: An Oft-injured K Porzingas; Ceiling: Dirk Nowitczki with Shot-blocking capabilities who bulks up and plays most games each season  

Both have similar ceilings. One has a MUCH WORSE floor.

You take Jabri all day long in this assessment  

 

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6 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

A unanimous top 3 pick, isn't turning down a guaranteed $30m contract to go back to Gonzaga because random people on the internet think he's too skinny. 

Correct me if I'm wrong....in basically every single analysis written by sports analysts that cover the NBA, most if not all of them bring up Chet's type of body....red flag after red flag, after red flag.

That he should take the money and run is another story.....why not? I might say and would take it from there.

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So I thought this was some random YouTuber just throwing out his opinion …talk about facts, number and illustrations wow …I actually feel better about drafting Holmgren after listening to this …keeping in mind the Chet vid was made 12 days ago …The Sharpe vid was made 2 days ago …he actually said he had Sharpe 3rd on his list in the Chet vid …said he’d make a Jabari Smith vid very soon 

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2 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

Explain to me how Chet Holmgren isn't a 2 way player.

Could’ve sworn he struggled against top teams averaging 9 points 7 reb 49% from the field 60% FT and 20 something % from 3.

my numbers may not be exact but it was around that range, you can’t convince me he can get a bucket on the half court on his own. We were 29th on offense give me Jabari or even Paulo. Guys who can get a bucket, plus we know Jabari can play defense too BONUS

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43 minutes ago, ball junkie said:

So I thought this was some random YouTuber just throwing out his opinion …talk about facts, number and illustrations wow …I actually feel better about drafting Holmgren after listening to this …keeping in mind the Chet vid was made 12 days ago …The Sharpe vid was made 2 days ago …he actually said he had Sharpe 3rd on his list in the Chet vid …said he’d make a Jabari Smith vid very soon 

Great stuff. Thanks for posting

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7 hours ago, TreyMachine said:

This is risk analysis 101

Jabri - Floor: Rashard Lewis Light; Ceiling: Kevin Durant with less handles and better defense 

Chet - Floor: An Oft-injured K Porzingas; Ceiling: Dirk Nowitczki with Shot-blocking capabilities who bulks up and plays most games each season  

Both have similar ceilings. One has a MUCH WORSE floor.

You take Jabri all day long in this assessment  

 

Exhibit 1 on risk reward for Jabari, provided by Josh Cohen, article dated May 3:

Jabari Smith Jr., who shot 42 percent from downtown in his one season at Auburn, has arguably the best long-distance shooting mechanics and touch for someone 6-foot-10 or taller ever coming into the draft. 

 

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11 hours ago, TreyMachine said:

This is risk analysis 101

Jabri - Floor: Rashard Lewis Light; Ceiling: Kevin Durant with less handles and better defense 

Chet - Floor: An Oft-injured K Porzingas; Ceiling: Dirk Nowitczki with Shot-blocking capabilities who bulks up and plays most games each season  

Both have similar ceilings. One has a MUCH WORSE floor.

You take Jabri all day long in this assessment  

 

It's easy to make up a floor and a ceiling based on your own preconceived notions for prospects and use that to justify your opinion. Watch: 

Jabari - Floor: Ryan Anderson with defense, Ceiling: Rashard Lewis with better defense.

Chet - Floor: Marcus Camby who can pass and shoot, Ceiling: Dirk meets Giannis. 

To be clear I don't believe those Chet ones its just an example because I also don't believe there's any way that Jabari's ceiling is "Durant with worse handles and better defense". 

Jabari's inability to create offense for anybody is something nobody who thinks he's this super prospect is talking about. He got to the rim on 15% of his offensive possessions. That is truly horrible (Corey Kispert got to the rim on 33% of his attempts in 2021. A guy who's NBA role was always thought to be just a shooter). Furthermore 41% of his offense were non rim 2s which he hit at only 36%. 

Literally the only thing Jabari did at an elite level offensively in college was shoot the 3 ball. His handle is barely functional, he has very little in the way of passing instincts and he lacks burst but I'm supposed to believe his ceiling is close to Kevin Durant?

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I think an interesting comp for Jabari offensively could be MPJ. Porter (when healthy) is an elite off ball scorer, he doesn't create a great deal for himself at all but he hits 3s at an elite rate, finishes cuts around the hoop things like that. (He also played with an MVP all time great passer and a near all star level PG in his lone great season). 

Jabari could be that. I don't want it to seem like I'm low on him because I think he's got the type of ceiling that sees him playing starters minutes in high leverage playoff basketball. But I don't see much creation ability.

Maybe he develops in unusual and interesting ways, I saw the theory someone posted from an unnamed scout about how he could add muscle and become like a strength based driver which is an interesting proposition. It'd still depend on the handle getting better and I don't have much frame of reference for that kind of creator but it's certainly something to consider.

The interesting thing for me is I'm a big believer still in Fultz and I think Jabari is a fantastic fit with Fultz. Fultz practically lead the league in high value assists (assists for open 3s or layups) when he returned from injury. Jabari would really benefit from that, and in turn the team would benefit from a 6'10 guy who's an elite shooter. The defensive versitillitiy of a Fultz/Suggs/Franz/Jabari/WCJ lineup is fun to think about. I'm not low on Jabari (well maybe I am if the consensus is he could be Kevin Durant) I'd be happy if we drafted him but I personally don't think he's a better prospect than Holmgren.

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4 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

It's easy to make up a floor and a ceiling based on your own preconceived notions for prospects and use that to justify your opinion. Watch: 

Jabari - Floor: Ryan Anderson with defense, Ceiling: Rashard Lewis with better defense.

Chet - Floor: Marcus Camby who can pass and shoot, Ceiling: Dirk meets Giannis. 

To be clear I don't believe those Chet ones its just an example because I also don't believe there's any way that Jabari's ceiling is "Durant with worse handles and better defense". 

Jabari's inability to create offense for anybody is something nobody who thinks he's this super prospect is talking about. He got to the rim on 15% of his offensive possessions. That is truly horrible (Corey Kispert got to the rim on 33% of his attempts in 2021. A guy who's NBA role was always thought to be just a shooter). Furthermore 41% of his offense were non rim 2s which he hit at only 36%. 

Literally the only thing Jabari did at an elite level offensively in college was shoot the 3 ball. His handle is barely functional, he has very little in the way of passing instincts and he lacks burst but I'm supposed to believe his ceiling is close to Kevin Durant?

Not to pile on but I watched Durant play in college and when I saw that comparison I was like OMG …Durant was awesome at Texas …did everything …and I watched Davis at Auburn a lot because I’m a UK fan and they’re SEC and had a great season …not saying Davis won’t be great but collegiately there was no comparison between the two players except as CT says shooting the 3 …and even there was just about even …Davis at 42 percent and Durant at 40

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kevin-durant-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jabari-smith-2.html

You knew the minute Durant got to the NBA his same successes would continue and they have .
 

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