Chicago Bulls Draft Pick Watch

[jmmagicfan 301]

4 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

I definitely get this but are you not worried the Bulls could improve enough to be a playoff team next season so instead of getting pick 9 in this draft we get pick 17 in the next? 

 

I would have to agree with you 100% on this. Am I concerned about adding two more rookies to our already young group of players? A little bit, yes, but let's look at what we have guaranteed for next year. The only players currently over 25, and under contract for next season, are Harris (26/27), and Ross (30/31), so we are full on youth movement anyway. We only have 10 under contract (if we guarantee Bacon before 8/1 we would have 11). That means we have at least 4/5 full roster spots and 2 - 2 way contracts to fill for next season. If we are high on two guys at our draft position, then we should take them. Don't forget, we also have a high, second-round pick. (currently #32). We've already been playing three rookies (Anthony, Hampton, Okeke), so could we do two (or three) more? Who knows - maybe we trade the Bulls pick for a player we like - we do have a couple of trade exceptions to work with now, including one for $17.15M. The point now is, we have a lot more options. 

1) Fultz/Anthony/Hampton

2) Harris/Carter-Williams

3) Ross

4) Isaac/Okeke

5) Carter/Bamba

 

 

[jmmagicfan 301]

13 hours ago, JJZFL said:

Odds are so similar for the bottom 4 teams that it hardly matters. 

Yes, and no. Worst case scenario if teams "jump" up via the lottery - worst record is guaranteed #5 or better, 2nd worst guaranteed #6 or better, etc. With the fourth worst record, there is potential to fall as far as #8. The percentages for the bottom 4 are about the same, but how far you could potentially fall is very different. That's why it matters. 

[Natesroom 197]

6 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

Yes, and no. Worst case scenario if teams "jump" up via the lottery - worst record is guaranteed #5 or better, 2nd worst guaranteed #6 or better, etc. With the fourth worst record, there is potential to fall as far as #8. The percentages for the bottom 4 are about the same, but how far you could potentially fall is very different. That's why it matters. 

currently our odds of getting the 5th or 6th pick is 47% (27 for 5th, 20 for 6th)

 

[CTMagicUK 1,480]

21 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

I would have to agree with you 100% on this. Am I concerned about adding two more rookies to our already young group of players? A little bit, yes, but let's look at what we have guaranteed for next year. The only players currently over 25, and under contract for next season, are Harris (26/27), and Ross (30/31), so we are full on youth movement anyway. We only have 10 under contract (if we guarantee Bacon before 8/1 we would have 11). That means we have at least 4/5 full roster spots and 2 - 2 way contracts to fill for next season. If we are high on two guys at our draft position, then we should take them. Don't forget, we also have a high, second-round pick. (currently #32). We've already been playing three rookies (Anthony, Hampton, Okeke), so could we do two (or three) more? Who knows - maybe we trade the Bulls pick for a player we like - we do have a couple of trade exceptions to work with now, including one for $17.15M. The point now is, we have a lot more options. 

1) Fultz/Anthony/Hampton

2) Harris/Carter-Williams

3) Ross

4) Isaac/Okeke

5) Carter/Bamba

 

 

Think RJ is more of a 2. At least at the moment. And so is Ross really now I'm looking at it... God we're desperate for a real 3. If we get Cade I'd probably start him at the 3 looking at it. He's struggled with his handle against smaller guards anyway and this would help mitigate that. 

[jmmagicfan 301]

5 minutes ago, Natesroom said:

currently our odds of getting the 5th or 6th pick is 47% (27 for 5th, 20 for 6th)

 

Correct, the teams with the 3 worst records all have about a 52% chance of picking top-4, with the rest of the percentages split farther down.

1 - 48% picking #5 

2 - 28% picking #5, 20% picking #6

3 - 15% picking #5, 26% picking #6, 7% picking #7

4th worst record has a 48% chance at a top-4 pick, and a 52% chance of falling to 5-8. 

4 - 7% picking #5, 26% picking #6, 17% picking #7, 2% picking #8

 

[jmmagicfan 301]

One thing we should also look at, Chicago has one of the toughest remaining schedules - unfortunately, so do the Raptors, but New Orleans, Washington and Sacramento have significantly easier ones, so hopefully NO and Washington will continue to have better records, and either Sacramento or Toronto (or both?) will end up passing them, leaving Chicago with the 7th worst record. 

http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

[CTMagicUK 1,480]

The nightmare scenario is obviously four teams leap both us and Chicago into the lottery (the odds of this happening are bordering on 0 but its still a possibility). That would knock both our pick and the Bulls pick down 4 spots so we'd be looking at 6 and 13. That's gross. 

[hootie249 293]

  If anyone listens to our local sports radio station,96.9,Marc Daniels made a great point yesterday. He was talking about the Suns. Obviously he mentioned how they traded for CP3 and they might end up with the best record this year.  But he went back to how they were a bad team who drafted poorly except they finally hit on some picks. Four of them he mentioned. Ayton,Booker,Bridges and Johnson. He loved pointing out that the most important "hit" was also the lowest in the lottery, that was Booker at 13. 

I think his point is that wherever you are in the lottery you have to take a good player, that's it. Now Booker was a steal at 13 but the other 3 guys can play. Ayton is second in win shares from that draft right now to Luka. Is he a star? No, far from it but he does what they drafted him to do. Bridges and Johnson are still on rookie deals which allowed them to fit CP3. They also moved on from Bender and Josh Jackson when they realized they were mistakes. 

[jmmagicfan 301]

30 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

The nightmare scenario is obviously four teams leap both us and Chicago into the lottery (the odds of this happening are bordering on 0 but its still a possibility). That would knock both our pick and the Bulls pick down 4 spots so we'd be looking at 6 and 13. That's gross. 

Actually, the real nightmare is that Chicago is one of the four that leaps - leaving us with #6 this year, and who knows what next year. 

At #6 I might take Jalen Johnson or Scottie Barnes, and take a flier at #13 on Josh Giddey.  I'd rather have Cunningham/Suggs/Green obviously than Jalen Johnson, but I'd probably be happy taking Giddey with the Bulls pick either way, though most projections have him in the 15-20 range right now. 

[CTMagicUK 1,480]

18 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

Actually, the real nightmare is that Chicago is one of the four that leaps - leaving us with #6 this year, and who knows what next year. 

At #6 I might take Jalen Johnson or Scottie Barnes, and take a flier at #13 on Josh Giddey.  I'd rather have Cunningham/Suggs/Green obviously than Jalen Johnson, but I'd probably be happy taking Giddey with the Bulls pick either way, though most projections have him in the 15-20 range right now. 

You may be aware Im particularly high on Giddey so any situation where we end up with him is a win for me. 

Not overly interested in Scottie or Jalen at 6. Scottie especially is nothing against him I actually like him I just think he's a really bad fit on this roster and he's such a unique prospect that fit is going to be massively important for his development. I think I'd take a flier on one of the wings Moody/Keon Johnson/Springer/Bouknight at 6. Keon seems to be the most highly regarded of the 4 by mainstream mocks so maybe him I guess.

[hootie249 293]

28 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

Actually, the real nightmare is that Chicago is one of the four that leaps - leaving us with #6 this year, and who knows what next year. 

At #6 I might take Jalen Johnson or Scottie Barnes, and take a flier at #13 on Josh Giddey.  I'd rather have Cunningham/Suggs/Green obviously than Jalen Johnson, but I'd probably be happy taking Giddey with the Bulls pick either way, though most projections have him in the 15-20 range right now. 

   I hope they don't get caught up on rankings. Take the player your scouting says is good. Like if we drop to 7 and all the mocks have forwards like Scottie or Jalen,  but your scouts see Moody,Bouknight,Springer as good scorers take one!! Teams get caught up with size too much these days. Take the guys who can play and score. If your team needs a little size there is always free agency. No more physical freaks who can't play. And don't worry about mocks. 

[CTMagicUK 1,480]

5 minutes ago, hootie249 said:

   I hope they don't get caught up on rankings. Take the player your scouting says is good. Like if we drop to 7 and all the mocks have forwards like Scottie or Jalen,  but your scouts see Moody,Bouknight,Springer as good scorers take one!! Teams get caught up with size too much these days. Take the guys who can play and score. If your team needs a little size there is always free agency. No more physical freaks who can't play. And don't worry about mocks. 

Nah NBA teams don't really get caught up too much on media rankings (except maybe for an idea as to where other front offices rank guys). Last year mocks had Isaiah Stewart in the mid 20s and 30s and he went 16 to the Pistons.