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CTMagicUK

Chicago Bulls Draft Pick Watch

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8 hours ago, Natesroom said:

yeah the odds are 

14.0    13.4    12.7    11.9                                            
14.0    13.4    12.7    11.9                                
14.0    13.4    12.7    11.9

and i feel like they should be more like 

20, 18, 17, 16 or something like that for the top 4 - exactly the same so the top 4 have a 70-80% or so to get a top 4 so the odds are slimmer for lower teams to jump up and harder for worst teams to fall out. The playin is a great idea and causes these teams to play harder at the end of the season.

Those pre-draft odds are a little misleading and will change after each draft position is selected. In other words our odds for picks 2,3,4 will increase considerably if one of Det or Houston wins the first pick because the number combinations allotted to those teams (or whichever team wins the first pick) will no longer be in play when determining the next pick. That holds true for each pick down the line. Obviously if we get jumped by a team with very low odds it will have less impact on increasing the odds for us and the remaining teams for subsequent picks 

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45 minutes ago, gobucsmagic said:

Those pre-draft odds are a little misleading and will change after each draft position is selected. In other words our odds for picks 2,3,4 will increase considerably if one of Det or Houston wins the first pick because the number combinations allotted to those teams (or whichever team wins the first pick) will no longer be in play when determining the next pick. That holds true for each pick down the line. Obviously if we get jumped by a team with very low odds it will have less impact on increasing the odds for us and the remaining teams for subsequent picks 

I don't think this is true. A teams 'ping-pong balls' aren't removed once they win a top 4 spot, just if they're drawn again they redraw it.

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13 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

I don't think this is true. A teams 'ping-pong balls' (in quote marks because it's more complicated than pong pong balls iirc) aren't removed once they win a top 4 spot, just if they're drawn again they redraw it.

Right. There’s no ping pong balls with team names on them like there used to be. Instead a set number of combinations are allotted to each team based on the pre-lottery odds. My assumption that those team assigned combinations are thrown out after a given team is awarded a draft position may be incorrect,  however,  if a combination for a team who has already won themselves a draft slot comes up again it would be disregarded and they’d drop the balls again. I’m not sure how that would impact the probability although it seems to me if that were the case the probability would remain the same for each draft position 1-4 because we’d still have the same number of combinations, amongst all the lottery teams combinations, for each draft slot. 

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1 hour ago, gobucsmagic said:

Right. There’s no ping pong balls with team names on them like there used to be. Instead a set number of combinations are allotted to each team based on the pre-lottery odds. My assumption that those team assigned combinations are thrown out after a given team is awarded a draft position may be incorrect,  however,  if a combination for a team who has already won themselves a draft slot comes up again it would be disregarded and they’d drop the balls again. I’m not sure how that would impact the probability although it seems to me if that were the case the probability would remain the same for each draft position 1-4 because we’d still have the same number of combinations, amongst all the lottery teams combinations, for each draft slot. 

It doesn't affect the probability. Let's say the Rockets get #1. Now we have a 13.4% shot at #2. If the Rockets come out again they'll redraw it and we have another independent 13.4% shot at #2. Like a coin, regardless how many times in a row you've landed on heads the probability of tails is still always 50%.

Regardless, it doesn't even matter because we don't see the lottery drawn like this. We see the numbers revealed from 14 to 1 descending after the actual lottery has happened so even if there was a moment in time where our odds fluctuated we'd never be aware of it. 

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34 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

 It doesn't affect the probability. Let's say the Rockets get #1. Now we have a 13.4% shot at #2. If the Rockets come out again they'll redraw it and we have another independent 13.4% shot at #2. Like a coin, regardless how many times in a row you've landed on heads the probability of tails is still always 50%.

Regardless, it doesn't even matter because we don't see the lottery drawn like this. We see the numbers revealed from 14 to 1 descending after the actual lottery has happened so even if there was a moment in time where our odds fluctuated we'd never be aware of it. 

If what you’re saying is correct then every teams probably for picks 1-4 would remain the same (as you pointed out) but that doesn’t appear to be the case based on the pre-lottery odds. The fact that this all happens behind the scenes is irrelevant

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1 hour ago, CTMagicUK said:

I don't think this is true. A teams 'ping-pong balls' aren't removed once they win a top 4 spot, just if they're drawn again they redraw it.

 

57 minutes ago, gobucsmagic said:

Right. There’s no ping pong balls with team names on them like there used to be. Instead a set number of combinations are allotted to each team based on the pre-lottery odds. My assumption that those team assigned combinations are thrown out after a given team is awarded a draft position may be incorrect,  however,  if a combination for a team who has already won themselves a draft slot comes up again it would be disregarded and they’d drop the balls again. I’m not sure how that would impact the probability although it seems to me if that were the case the probability would remain the same for each draft position 1-4 because we’d still have the same number of combinations, amongst all the lottery teams combinations, for each draft slot. 

The net effect is the same as removing them. Teams are assigned 1000 of the 1001 combinations. In any drawing that the unassigned combo comes up, the result is "thrown out", and a new drawing occurs. That is why the odds are 14% - 140 combinations out of 1000 possible "winning" combinations. The same is true for subsequent drawings after each draft position is assigned, so if the team that wins the 1st pick has a combination drawn later for the second, third, or fourth pick, that result is "thrown out". This means the odds of winning a pick actually change after each pick based on who won that pick. The odds we see quoted are "composites" based on multiple permutations, as the true odds can't be known until after each pick is made. The problem is when they make that board, there is no way to know whose odds went to 0% for each subsequent pick. It's also why the odds board has never made any sense because, unlike the lotto, each time you don't win, your odds to win the next pick do improve, as the ineligible number of combinations increase and the odds of a "re-draw" occurring increases. In essence, each time someone wins, their odds on winning subsequent picks is now 0%, because even if another of their combinations (or the same combination) is drawn, that result is now invalid, and thrown out. So, while the odds of one of your combinations being drawn is the same every time (140 out of 1001 possible combinations), the odds on that drawing resulting in a pick being assigned changes. So if we look at it from the perspective of actually winning a pick, each round (not every drawing) there is a 100% chance of a pick being assigned, either from the first draw or from subsequent re-draws. That means that if one teams odds go down to 0%, other teams odds have to increase.   

Example:

Pick #1 goes to Detroit, who has 140 combinations. Now Houston's and Orlando's actual odds increase from 140 out of 1000 "winning" combinations, to 140 out of 860 (16.28%) to get the #2 pick, as there are now 141 combinations that are ineligible to win, and will result in a re-draw.

On the other hand, if Charlotte wins the #1 pick with one of their 18 combinations, now Detroit, Houston, and Orlando all have the same odds for winning #2, and those odds are now 140 out of 982 (14.26%), as now there are only 19 ineligible combinations that will result in a re-draw. 

 

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8 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

 

The net effect is the same as removing them. Teams are assigned 1000 of the 1001 combinations. In any drawing that the unassigned combo comes up, the result is "thrown out", and a new drawing occurs. That is why the odds are 14% - 140 combinations out of 1000 possible "winning" combinations. The same is true for subsequent drawings after each draft position is assigned, so if the team that wins the 1st pick has a combination drawn later for the second, third, or fourth pick, that result is "thrown out". This means the odds of winning a pick actually change after each pick based on who won that pick. The odds we see quoted are "composites" based on multiple permutations, as the true odds can't be known until after each pick is made. The problem is when they make that board, there is no way to know whose odds went to 0% for each subsequent pick. It's also why the odds board has never made any sense because, unlike the lotto, each time you don't win, your odds to win the next pick do improve, as the ineligible number of combinations increase and the odds of a "re-draw" occurring increases. In essence, each time someone wins, their odds on winning subsequent picks is now 0%, because even if another of their combinations (or the same combination) is drawn, that result is now invalid, and thrown out. So, while the odds of one of your combinations being drawn is the same every time (140 out of 1001 possible combinations), the odds on that drawing resulting in a pick being assigned changes. So if we look at it from the perspective of actually winning a pick, each round (not every drawing) there is a 100% chance of a pick being assigned, either from the first draw or from subsequent re-draws. That means that if one teams odds go down to 0%, other teams odds have to increase.   

Example:

Pick #1 goes to Detroit, who has 140 combinations. Now Houston's and Orlando's actual odds increase from 140 out of 1000 "winning" combinations, to 140 out of 860 (16.28%) to get the #2 pick, as there are now 141 combinations that are ineligible to win, and will result in a re-draw.

On the other hand, if Charlotte wins the #1 pick with one of their 18 combinations, now Detroit, Houston, and Orlando all have the same odds for winning #2, and those odds are now 140 out of 982 (14.26%), as now there are only 19 ineligible combinations that will result in a re-draw. 

 

What he said ^

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6 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

 

The net effect is the same as removing them. Teams are assigned 1000 of the 1001 combinations. In any drawing that the unassigned combo comes up, the result is "thrown out", and a new drawing occurs. That is why the odds are 14% - 140 combinations out of 1000 possible "winning" combinations. The same is true for subsequent drawings after each draft position is assigned, so if the team that wins the 1st pick has a combination drawn later for the second, third, or fourth pick, that result is "thrown out". This means the odds of winning a pick actually change after each pick based on who won that pick. The odds we see quoted are "composites" based on multiple permutations, as the true odds can't be known until after each pick is made. The problem is when they make that board, there is no way to know whose odds went to 0% for each subsequent pick. It's also why the odds board has never made any sense because, unlike the lotto, each time you don't win, your odds to win the next pick do improve, as the ineligible number of combinations increase and the odds of a "re-draw" occurring increases. In essence, each time someone wins, their odds on winning subsequent picks is now 0%, because even if another of their combinations (or the same combination) is drawn, that result is now invalid, and thrown out. So, while the odds of one of your combinations being drawn is the same every time (140 out of 1001 possible combinations), the odds on that drawing resulting in a pick being assigned changes. So if we look at it from the perspective of actually winning a pick, each round (not every drawing) there is a 100% chance of a pick being assigned, either from the first draw or from subsequent re-draws. That means that if one teams odds go down to 0%, other teams odds have to increase.   

Example:

Pick #1 goes to Detroit, who has 140 combinations. Now Houston's and Orlando's actual odds increase from 140 out of 1000 "winning" combinations, to 140 out of 860 (16.28%) to get the #2 pick, as there are now 141 combinations that are ineligible to win, and will result in a re-draw.

On the other hand, if Charlotte wins the #1 pick with one of their 18 combinations, now Detroit, Houston, and Orlando all have the same odds for winning #2, and those odds are now 140 out of 982 (14.26%), as now there are only 19 ineligible combinations that will result in a re-draw. 

 

Damn... You're right... My bad I was wrong. 

(This is very well explained by the way - also I have a degree in Maths and Stats - which I admittedly haven't used or thought about in 5 years - so my pride and ego are incredibly bruised lol)

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7 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

Damn... You're right... My bad I was wrong. 

(This is very well explained by the way - also I have a degree in Maths and Stats - which I admittedly haven't used or thought about in 5 years - so my pride and ego are incredibly bruised lol)

I agree and don't feel bad, it's really pretty confusing. That was an amazing breakdown by jmmagicfan!

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3 hours ago, gobucsmagic said:

That’s a ridiculous idea in a league that already has a serious issue with parity, but again, you’ll take any opportunity to spew your anti-tanking bs regardless of the redundancy

Sorry we don’t agree.  Feel free to block my posts.  Otherwise stop complaining about posts that don’t agree with you.  It’s getting tiring.  

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3 minutes ago, JJZFL said:

Sorry we don’t agree.  Feel free to block my posts.  Otherwise stop complaining about posts that don’t agree with you.  It’s getting tiring.  

As are any and all conversations regarding tanking. I'll continue to complain as long as you keep bringing it up since its an open forum as you previously mentioned, but, by all means, feel free to block me  

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1 minute ago, gobucsmagic said:

As are any and all conversations regarding tanking. I'll continue to complain as long as you keep bringing it up since its an open forum as you previously mentioned, but feel free to block me  

Done

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