2021 NBA Draft Thread

[crisby pancakes 126]

1 hour ago, Soul Bro said:

Maybe I’m missing something but I believe the odds simply spread into the lottery from pick two on: http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Edit: So it seems to me we’d want a top three pick

I said I wouldnt want the top pick, didnt say anything about not wanting picks 2 or 3 other than there's very little difference between odds for a top 3 pick if you finish with a top 5 seed . . .

As I said prior, you finish with the worst record you have a 48% chance to pick 5 and your odds to pick top 4 aren't really any better than the teams who will pick 4 or 5. I would love us to get the 2 or 3 seed but I'll still be happy if we seed 4 or 5 as that is just as good a chance to go 1st.

[Soul Bro 1,418]

38 minutes ago, crisby pancakes said:

I said I wouldnt want the top pick, didnt say anything about not wanting picks 2 or 3 other than there's very little difference between odds for a top 3 pick if you finish with a top 5 seed . . .

As I said prior, you finish with the worst record you have a 48% chance to pick 5 and your odds to pick top 4 aren't really any better than the teams who will pick 4 or 5. I would love us to get the 2 or 3 seed but I'll still be happy if we seed 4 or 5 as that is just as good a chance to go 1st.

I don’t think you’re looking at how the percentages work in terms of how far a team can drop back with each slot. For instance, yes, the number 1 slot has a 48% of picking at 5, but the number 2 slot is worse because it splits the 48% to pick 5 (27.8%) and pick 6 (20.1%). Then at the number 3 slot you could end up drafting even further back... and on and on the system goes. Thus, the worse your slot number, the greater chance you have of sliding back in the lottery.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[harley 61]

If we miss Cade I’m thinking I want Bouknight the most now. He’s the next Booker/Lavine. 

[crisby pancakes 126]

22 minutes ago, Soul Bro said:

I don’t think you’re looking at how the percentages work in terms of how far a team can drop back with each slot. For instance, yes, the number 1 slot has a 48% of picking at 5, but the number 2 slot is worse because it splits the 48% to pick 5 (27.8%) and pick 6 (20.1%). Then at the number 3 slot you could end up drafting even further back... and on and on the system goes. Thus, the worse your slot number, the greater chance you have of sliding back in the lottery.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I'm fully aware of how it works and I don't need you to repeatedly post a link I already posted a few days ago lol. I'm not saying its better to be seed 4 over seed 1. Also, you're more likely to slide backwards the better your slot number is not worse. Seed 1 is more likely to go backwards than seed 13. I doubt seed 13 has ever dropped back to 14.

I'm saying seed 1 is more likely to drop 4 places than seed 4 is. Seed 4 is most likely to drop 2 spots. If seed 1 drops to the 5th pick and seed 4 drops to the 6th pick, yes seed 1 has the better pick but they've had a worse draft lottery. If seed 4 doesnt drop then it has pretty much just as good odds for any remaining picks as seed 1.

We've already seen last year how these improved odds have made teams bounce around in the top 8. All 8 changed positions, not a single team stayed where they were. You dont need to finish with one of the worst records anymore, as long you're a top 8 seed you have a shot at moving up.

Personally I prefer we finish in a low seed where the odds are more likely that we only drop 2 places and not 4. Because of how bad the Magics luck has been the past 10 years I just expect the worse to happen so i'd rather we drop 2 spots instead of 4. I would be absolutely gutted if we had the number one seed and dropped to 5th. Dropping from 4 to 6 I could just about stomach.

[Soul Bro 1,418]

1 hour ago, crisby pancakes said:

I'm fully aware of how it works and I don't need you to repeatedly post a link I already posted a few days ago lol. I'm not saying its better to be seed 4 over seed 1. Also, you're more likely to slide backwards the better your slot number is not worse. Seed 1 is more likely to go backwards than seed 13. I doubt seed 13 has ever dropped back to 14.

I'm saying seed 1 is more likely to drop 4 places than seed 4 is. Seed 4 is most likely to drop 2 spots. If seed 1 drops to the 5th pick and seed 4 drops to the 6th pick, yes seed 1 has the better pick but they've had a worse draft lottery. If seed 4 doesnt drop then it has pretty much just as good odds for any remaining picks as seed 1.

We've already seen last year how these improved odds have made teams bounce around in the top 8. All 8 changed positions, not a single team stayed where they were. You dont need to finish with one of the worst records anymore, as long you're a top 8 seed you have a shot at moving up.

Personally I prefer we finish in a low seed where the odds are more likely that we only drop 2 places and not 4. Because of how bad the Magics luck has been the past 10 years I just expect the worse to happen so i'd rather we drop 2 spots instead of 4. I would be absolutely gutted if we had the number one seed and dropped to 5th. Dropping from 4 to 6 I could just about stomach.

Sounds good. Wasn’t trying to lecture you ;). We need some lotto luck!

[crisby pancakes 126]

6 hours ago, Soul Bro said:

Sounds good. Wasn’t trying to lecture you ;). We need some lotto luck!

yeah I know you weren't, no worries, I would love for us to end up with the number 3 seed and get some lottery luck. (I don't think anyone out tanks Timberwolves or Pistons.) Adding a player like Cade to a fully fit squad would instantly make us 4th best team in the East imo. Admittedly, that's mainly because the East is terrible. We could do with getting some luck after all these terrible injuries :(

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

Before the season started the player I was most skeptical about of the top guys was Jalen Green.

I thought he might end up being an inefficient, selfish, chucker. But watching his tape and I just watched his film session with Mike Schmitz on YouTube and I'm sold on him big time. He's so self aware about the things he needs to work on to be better. And he's such a great athlete with a really nice looking jumper. I can't bring myself to have him supplant Cade but if not for Cade he'd be my #1 guy in this draft now I think. 

I honestly think he might be perfect for us. He's great in transition, dynamite athlete, natural scorer, really promising jump shooter. He apparently specifically asked his coaches to help him improve defensively if I heard that right on the video I just watched. 

[hootie249 293]

2 hours ago, crisby pancakes said:

yeah I know you weren't, no worries, I would love for us to end up with the number 3 seed and get some lottery luck. (I don't think anyone out tanks Timberwolves or Pistons.) Adding a player like Cade to a fully fit squad would instantly make us 4th best team in the East imo. Admittedly, that's mainly because the East is terrible. We could do with getting some luck after all these terrible injuries :(

   I also go to sites like  tankathon and when the team is this bad it's hard not to focus on the lottery. I think we just have to get lucky and make a jump. I'm not going to worry to much about position when almost every year a couple  of teams move up. I just looked at the standings and there are just too many bad teams. In the east we are lucky because i think only the Pistons and Cavs want to tank. In the west it's a mess, too many bad teams and even worse two teams that can keep first round picks if they tank hard enough. 

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

The Magic are now in sole position of the 4th worst record. 

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

I have a feeling that if we keep our 2nd rounder past the trade deadline we'll actually use it this year. At present it's pick 34 which is essentially the same group of players as something like pick 28. Almost a second first rounder. 

 

[harley 61]

1 hour ago, CTMagicUK said:

I have a feeling that if we keep our 2nd rounder past the trade deadline we'll actually use it this year. At present it's pick 34 which is essentially the same group of players as something like pick 28. Almost a second first rounder. 

 

Have to use it. We need another 1st too. We need to replace Ennis, Bacon , Clark, with rookies. Could almost guarantee they wouldn’t be nearly as bad. They would prob be the worst 3 rotation players in the league.

[Soul Bro 1,418]

2 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

I have a feeling that if we keep our 2nd rounder past the trade deadline we'll actually use it this year. At present it's pick 34 which is essentially the same group of players as something like pick 28. Almost a second first rounder. 

We better use it and nail it. We can’t waste assets anymore. In 2018, Brunson was picked at 33, Graham at 34 and Mitchell Robinson at 36. Meanwhile, we picked Frazier at 35. Management has to build a better roster.