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CTMagicUK

2021 NBA Draft Thread

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7 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

I actually think a pick in 7-10 wouldn't be a disaster. Bouknight, Springer, Williams could all be great picks. 

It would be perfectly Magic to end up just after the elite guys

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10 hours ago, All Eyes On Me said:

Just get a top 4 pick, assuming someone takes Mobley in the top 3 which I fully expect it’ll guarantee us one of Cade, Green, or Kuminga. Also all for getting back in to the late lotto with another pick, even if it costs us next years 1st. Gotta double down on a strong draft class

There is no way I am giving up next years number one in the Chet Holmgren draft.  

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7 hours ago, Jason Funderburker said:

It would be perfectly Magic to end up just after the elite guys

The thing is at least one of the "elite guys" will bust and someone in the 7-14 range will hit. 

Look at 2014 where the "elite guys" were Wiggins, Parker and Embiid. Only one of those guys became what was hoped.

2015 had a pretty defined top 4 that included Jahlil Okafor and Devin Booker at 13 is a top 2 player from that draft. 

2017: Fultz and Lonzo were the clear numbers 1 and 2 and Donovan Mitchell went 13. 

All of the "elite guys" in this draft have pretty defined weaknesses which could lead to them being less than what people hope. Even Cade, as good as he is and as close to a sure thing as he is, isn't very explosive and relies on his handle and his strength and size to beat guys which could cause him some issues in the NBA (to be clear I don't think Cade will bust at all I'm just making a point)

Personally, I'm a little terrified by Jonathan Kuminga. 40/25/66 shooting splits in the G-League with, by all accounts, inconsistent defense and iffy decision making hardly screams "can't miss". 

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30 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

The thing is at least one of the "elite guys" will bust and someone in the 7-14 range will hit. 

Look at 2014 where the "elite guys" were Wiggins, Parker and Embiid. Only one of those guys became what was hoped.

2015 had a pretty defined top 4 that included Jahlil Okafor and Devin Booker at 13 is a top 2 player from that draft. 

2017: Fultz and Lonzo were the clear numbers 1 and 2 and Donovan Mitchell went 13. 

All of the "elite guys" in this draft have pretty defined weaknesses which could lead to them being less than what people hope. Even Cade, as good as he is and as close to a sure thing as he is, isn't very explosive and relies on his handle and his strength and size to beat guys which could cause him some issues in the NBA (to be clear I don't think Cade will bust at all I'm just making a point)

Personally, I'm a little terrified by Jonathan Kuminga. 40/25/66 shooting splits in the G-League with, by all accounts, inconsistent defense and iffy decision making hardly screams "can't miss". 

What is your point?  This is not an exact science? of course not that is obvious.  But for a franchise with little hope right now we need a little.  So all draft intel right now  is saying there is a clear top 5 so why not be in there.  

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28 minutes ago, og magic fan said:

What is your point?  This is not an exact science? of course not that is obvious.  But for a franchise with little hope right now we need a little.  So all draft intel right now  is saying there is a clear top 5 so why not be in there.  

My point is people shouldn't worry about something which we actually can't control (because lottery odds). And that no matter where we pick in the lottery we've got a shot at a franchise changer. And it really doesn't matter what people thought of a guy once you draft him. You think if we draft Kuminga and he busts people are gonna be like "Still glad we got that top 5 pick, we picked the right guy but he just didn't pan out" or are they going to say "why didn't we pick [X player picked 10th who's a star]?"  

 

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30 minutes ago, og magic fan said:

What is your point?  This is not an exact science? of course not that is obvious.  But for a franchise with little hope right now we need a little.  So all draft intel right now  is saying there is a clear top 5 so why not be in there.  

We will definitely be in their

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2 minutes ago, Jay Magic said:

I want Cade at all costs. He is generational talent

Even if we get the worst record we have an exactly 14% chance at Cade. 

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Last 30 years 4 guys drafted out of the top 5 were the best players on their team to win the title.  Steph, Kobe, Dirk, Kawhi.  Kobe was an anomaly because of high school to the pros.  

 

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I wouldn't want to finish with the worst record, you most likely drop to 5th pick. Odd for picking there are massive (48%) and there's only a minor drop off for a top 3 pick if you finish with 4th or 5th worst record (0.8-1.5%.) With our remaining fixtures I only see us with 18-20 wins. That should have us in the 2-5 seed range.

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4 minutes ago, crisby pancakes said:

I wouldn't want to finish with the worst record, you most likely drop to 5th pick. Odd for picking there are massive (48%) and there's only a minor drop off for a top 3 pick if you finish with 4th or 5th worst record (0.8-1.5%.) With our remaining fixtures I only see us with 18-20 wins. That should have us in the 2-5 seed range.

The next 20 games are brutal.  But it's about the next 10 before the trade deadline where I hope management is forced to make the right decisions.  

 

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