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2021 NBA Draft Thread

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51 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

Draft a guy who you think will dominate. Not a shooter. Giannis is a career 28% 3 point shooter. Just won a ring dropping 50 with 99% of his shots coming at the rim and free throw.

Lol… I was thinking the same thing. It’s going to be interesting 

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34 minutes ago, MagicFanDan said:

You’re probably right. I was just thinking the team needed a veteran leadership presence who is capable of creating their own shot. 
 

We truly are so young and I’m a believer that veteran mentorship can be good for the growth of young players. 

I hear that and I really agree I just don't know if using the #8 pick to do it is the best use of assets.

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We will have tons of money to pick up a vet or 2. Use the pick for BPA and see what happens. Hope for one of the team up top picks someone else have Suggs or mobley fall to us, and pick up Kuminga at 8 would be amazing.

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Sam Vecenie at The Athletic released a new mock he has us taking: 

#5 Scottie Barnes

#8 Alperen Sengun

#33 Bones Hyland (Bones!)

Here are the tidbits of 'intel':

"I believe the Magic are much more likely, at this point, to select Barnes than Jonathan Kuminga...

...don’t be surprised if Orlando tries to move up on draft night, as the team is thought to like Jalen Suggs."

 "The Magic are one of the few teams that will have Sengun in for a workout and are thought to be interested in the high-scoring Turkish star... 

...Plenty of other names have come up here as well, including Bouknight, Moody and Franz Wagner."

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OK, so I have dedicated some more time to Sengun since my out of the league in 5 years prediction and... I still don’t see it. 

If there was a poster boy for “gets played off the court in any important game due to the inability to defend PnR”, it’d be him. That’s the modern NBA — any team will go at him relentlessly. 

So then his offense has to compensate for being a complete net negative defensively — and he’s pretty damn good there! But didn’t we just see this archetype? Isn’t Vooch just a bigger, better shooting, bad defender? Don’t we know where that tops out? 

Maybe Sengun would work with, I don’t know, Embiid? Am I just missing it entirely? 

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5 minutes ago, ML6 said:

OK, so I have dedicated some more time to Sengun since my out of the league in 5 years prediction and... I still don’t see it. 

If there was a poster boy for “gets played off the court in any important game due to the inability to defend PnR”, it’d be him. That’s the modern NBA — any team will go at him relentlessly. 

So then his offense has to compensate for being a complete net negative defensively — and he’s pretty damn good there! But didn’t we just see this archetype? Isn’t Vooch just a bigger, better shooting, bad defender? Don’t we know where that tops out? 

Maybe Sengun would work with, I don’t know, Embiid? Am I just missing it entirely? 

You're not wrong really. And I really understand the people who don't buy Sengun at all but I'll try and make the case below:

You're right about the defense currently. He's not outlier levels of long or mobile and he's really struggled at times in Turkey in drop coverage. But I think he's got good hands to get steals, he does a great job of contesting shots with verticality around the rim and he generally seems to have solid instincts for defense. Alongside a guy like Isaac (as always health permitting) his rim protection might not be as much of an issue. 

Also he's 18 and we really can't be certain he's done developing physically or athletically. He might grow. He might get with NBA strength and conditioning and become more flexible or laterally quick or explosive. Or he might not. But if he doesn't I still think his ceiling is higher than Vuc if he can be the same level of defender (and it is an if).

Sengun is a (potentially) dominant post scorer. Consistently playing against older pros and putting up huge numbers on great efficiency. He's also a FT tank. He gets to the line a bunch. He can finish above the rim out of pick and roll and is a good post and short roll passer already at 18. Vuc couldn't even get on his college team at 18 and didn't really show any playmaking until well into his time here. 

The swing skill offensively is obviously the jumper because against better athletes and bigger bodies he's not likely to maintain his efficiency. But I think he's shown encouraging signs there even if his numbers (on very low volume) aren't good.

And here's something I've found it hard to consider myself but which is definitely worth keeping in mind. You don't have to draft someone to win you a championship. Even if Sengun doesn't have the potential to be the best player on a championship team, if he tops out as a Vuc or Al Jefferson level player those guys still have a bunch of value and you can use them in trades down the line to get pieces you think can help you win a championship. If he makes 2 all star games and we end up trading him for a bunch of assets (or as part of a package for a superstar) 8+ years from now that's not a bad outcome. Vuc would probably go top 5 in a redraft of the 2011 draft.

 

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6 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

 

Good points. I do like some of the assets he brings that you mentioned — efficiency, getting to the line, creativity he’s shown in the passing game.

His PnR scoring is nice but his bread and butter at this juncture is in the post, and I just don’t see that translating well. Not only for the reason you mentioned (better post defenders in the NBA), but that’s just not how the game is played anymore. Outside of Embiid and Jokic, teams don’t really dump it in the post to a guy and ask him to go to work (apologies to Shaq, who would love to see this routinely). Even Vooch, who is extremely skilled at that, started primarily picking/popping and spotting up. 

So for me the question becomes: what is the ceiling of a player who is good in PnR offense, great at post scoring in a league that doesn’t value post scoring that highly, but possibly can’t be on the court late in games? The answer to me is “not very high” UNLESS he does develop the shot significantly and can become more clever on D. Any maybe he will! To your point, he has a ton of time to do it, and generally guys who play with high motors also have good work ethic.

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20 minutes ago, ML6 said:

Good points. I do like some of the assets he brings that you mentioned — efficiency, getting to the line, creativity he’s shown in the passing game.

His PnR scoring is nice but his bread and butter at this juncture is in the post, and I just don’t see that translating well. Not only for the reason you mentioned (better post defenders in the NBA), but that’s just not how the game is played anymore. Outside of Embiid and Jokic, teams don’t really dump it in the post to a guy and ask him to go to work (apologies to Shaq, who would love to see this routinely). Even Vooch, who is extremely skilled at that, started primarily picking/popping and spotting up. 

So for me the question becomes: what is the ceiling of a player who is good in PnR offense, great at post scoring in a league that doesn’t value post scoring that highly, but possibly can’t be on the court late in games? The answer to me is “not very high” UNLESS he does develop the shot significantly and can become more clever on D. Any maybe he will! To your point, he has a ton of time to do it, and generally guys who play with high motors also have good work ethic.

Its tough to project how skilled he might end up being. Because he's 18 and scored 19ppg on 69%TS as a pro primarily playing out of the post. He's never needed to do much more than that. He's never needed a reliable jumper or a face up game. Will facing bigger and better post defenders neuter him or will it force him to be more creative and improve his skill level so he can attack off the dribble  and shoot 3s if he can't get going in the post? I guess when you get down to those kind of questions you have to trust in your intel that he's the kind of kid who wants to be great and get better and that's not really something we can know.

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18 minutes ago, ML6 said:

Good points. I do like some of the assets he brings that you mentioned — efficiency, getting to the line, creativity he’s shown in the passing game.

His PnR scoring is nice but his bread and butter at this juncture is in the post, and I just don’t see that translating well. Not only for the reason you mentioned (better post defenders in the NBA), but that’s just not how the game is played anymore. Outside of Embiid and Jokic, teams don’t really dump it in the post to a guy and ask him to go to work (apologies to Shaq, who would love to see this routinely). Even Vooch, who is extremely skilled at that, started primarily picking/popping and spotting up. 

So for me the question becomes: what is the ceiling of a player who is good in PnR offense, great at post scoring in a league that doesn’t value post scoring that highly, but possibly can’t be on the court late in games? The answer to me is “not very high” UNLESS he does develop the shot significantly and can become more clever on D. Any maybe he will! To your point, he has a ton of time to do it, and generally guys who play with high motors also have good work ethic.

2021 NBA Draft scouting report: Alperen Sengun (msn.com)

This is a pretty good write up of him, like you said defense is a problem, but with our team i think we can cover that up. His foot work and fundamentals is advance for someone his age. There is still room for him to grow both physically and his game. It would be interesting to see if his growth plate is sealed. if not if he can grow another inch or 2....he would be a breast inside. He NEED to develop a jump shot, but I think that will come with age and experience. There are so much possibility with this draft...so excited. 

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15 hours ago, JJZFL said:

But how do you determine who is better and who is worse?  Overvaluing what we have now will not help with making moves that could help the team.  

To me the only way to determine who is better and who is worse is on the court itself, giving meaningful minutes for development and evaluating based on performance.  I do not think this was Cliffords strength.  It appears this is one of Moseley's strengths and I hope it is.   I really like the makeup and potential on this roster and think we should use this year to see what we have.  Having said that if we are overvaluing anyone my first pick would be Bamba but I would make this year his make or break year.

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2 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

Sam Vecenie at The Athletic released a new mock he has us taking: 

#5 Scottie Barnes

#8 Alperen Sengun

#33 Bones Hyland (Bones!)

Here are the tidbits of 'intel':

"I believe the Magic are much more likely, at this point, to select Barnes than Jonathan Kuminga...

...don’t be surprised if Orlando tries to move up on draft night, as the team is thought to like Jalen Suggs."

 "The Magic are one of the few teams that will have Sengun in for a workout and are thought to be interested in the high-scoring Turkish star... 

...Plenty of other names have come up here as well, including Bouknight, Moody and Franz Wagner."

Absolutely love the pick at #33 (including the nickname).  This may be one year we get a solid contributor with our second round pick.  Above a good draft but probably means Carter or Bamba are on the way out.

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4 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

Sam Vecenie at The Athletic released a new mock he has us taking: 

#5 Scottie Barnes

#8 Alperen Sengun

#33 Bones Hyland (Bones!)

Here are the tidbits of 'intel':

"I believe the Magic are much more likely, at this point, to select Barnes than Jonathan Kuminga...

...don’t be surprised if Orlando tries to move up on draft night, as the team is thought to like Jalen Suggs."

 "The Magic are one of the few teams that will have Sengun in for a workout and are thought to be interested in the high-scoring Turkish star... 

...Plenty of other names have come up here as well, including Bouknight, Moody and Franz Wagner."

I’m probably the outlier here, but I think I’d move 5 and 8 to move up (if possible). Then I’d look at trading back into the middle of the first round to grab a shooting wing by dangling Ross to GS or NY.

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