2020 Official Draft Thread

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

Karim Mane is a guy who fits our profile if he's still on the board in the second round and he stays in the draft. Coming straight out of highschool, allegedly 6'5 with a 7'0 wingspan, apparently patterns his game after Jrue Holiday. Hammond also has previous for drafting a guy out of highschool with Thon Maker. 

Speaking of guys straight out of highschool Kenyon Martin Jr intrigues me in an "it'd be  fun if nothing else" kind of way. It's highly doubtful he'll ever be a big time rotation player in the NBA given he's like 6'6 and plays like a center but he's young and insanely athletic so maybe you could try to mould him into like a PJ Tucker or something. There's a big chance he doesn't even get drafted though so you could always just invite him to training camp if you liked him rather than use a pick.

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

Https://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/2020/07/28/what-is-the-best-way-to-draft/

Interesting article based on studying the value of 1st round picks Vs vet min contracts. Key things I took away from this are:

Almost 70% of all 1st round picks dont end their rookie contracts on the team that drafted them.

On average after 3 years 70% of the regular season minutes of a team changes. 

Most rookies, particularly those drafted outside the top 10, don't offer better production than a vet minimum contract. 

Conclusion: Never draft for need. Team needs change all the time and you can always get veterans to fill immediate needs. Plus by the time the guy's developed enough to contribute you might have an entirely different roster and the need might not be so pressing.

Always try and draft the player you think has the best chance to be a star. That's especially true when you don't already have star players.

[The Neighborhood Bully 266]

1 hour ago, CTMagicUK said:

Https://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/2020/07/28/what-is-the-best-way-to-draft/

Interesting article based on studying the value of 1st round picks Vs vet min contracts. Key things I took away from this are:

Almost 70% of all 1st round picks dont end their rookie contracts on the team that drafted them.

On average after 3 years 70% of the regular season minutes of a team changes. 

Most rookies, particularly those drafted outside the top 10, don't offer better production than a vet minimum contract. 

Conclusion: Never draft for need. Team needs change all the time and you can always get veterans to fill immediate needs. Plus by the time the guy's developed enough to contribute you might have an entirely different roster and the need might not be so pressing.

Always try and draft the player you think has the best chance to be a star. That's especially true when you don't already have star players.

does that mean we're drafting another lengthy pf?

Quote

The player who immediately comes to mind when watching Jaden McDaniels is Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac. Both McDaniels and Isaac are super athletic, raw, and versatile players, who need(ed) to add muscle to their 6’10” frames coming out of college. Isaac has added some bulk, weighing in at 230 pounds this past season after coming into the draft process at 210 pounds, per NBADraft.net. After a slow start to his NBA career, the 22-year-old Isaac had the best season of in the suspended 2019–20 campaign, averaging 12.0 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, via Basketball-Reference. It seems like Isaac is rounding into a good NBA player and I anticipate McDaniels taking a few years to establish himself as well.

Another comparison you can draw is a less-skilled Brandon Ingram. Ingram also has a slight build, like McDaniels, but is able to overcome it with his unique offensive creativity and shooting ability. BI also took a few years to really pop after being selected second overall in 2016 out of Duke. Ingram was one of the most improved players in the Association this past season, increasing his scoring output from 18.3 to 24.3 points per game, per ESPN Stats.

I don’t believe McDaniels is as talented and has the same upside as Ingram, but if he can improve his perimeter shooting and become more assertive offensively, the Washington native can become a bona fide threat in the NBA.

https://theknickswall.com/knicks-2020-draft-profile-washington-jaden-mcdaniels-harness-raw-potential/

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

9 hours ago, The Neighborhood Bully said:

does that mean we're drafting another lengthy pf?

https://theknickswall.com/knicks-2020-draft-profile-washington-jaden-mcdaniels-harness-raw-potential/

I hope not.

Mostly because I don't really see McDaniels being a star. He fouled a bunch, turned the ball over all the time and took so many bad shots. There are questions about his mentality and he has virtually no strength, switching a college caliber point guard on him is no worry because he can't post up or bully his way to the rim he just settles for the same tough off the dribble jumpers or drives into traffic where he can't finish. Comparing him to Isaac is a reach, he isn't nearly as commited to playing defense as Isaac is. He's honestly one of my least favourite players in the draft. 

 

[3rd Quarter Collapse 50]

Going to call my draft preference now: Jah’mius Ramsey

Combo guard with a 6’10 wingspan who shot 42% from 3 at Texas Tech. Really good scorer off the dribble and has a good first step. Needs to get stronger/ become a better finisher and be pushed to be better on the defensive end, but he’s got all the tools from what I see. More of a SG than a PG imo due to his lack of playmaking, but can play bench PG minutes as a offensive spark plug. I like the idea of him starting out replacing DJ as our back up to Fultz, and then moving him up to a starting SG as he acclimates to the NBA and improves his game. I think his skill set meshes well with Fultz as well.

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

3 hours ago, 3rd Quarter Collapse said:

Going to call my draft preference now: Jah’mius Ramsey

Combo guard with a 6’10 wingspan who shot 42% from 3 at Texas Tech. Really good scorer off the dribble and has a good first step. Needs to get stronger/ become a better finisher and be pushed to be better on the defensive end, but he’s got all the tools from what I see. More of a SG than a PG imo due to his lack of playmaking, but can play bench PG minutes as a offensive spark plug. I like the idea of him starting out replacing DJ as our back up to Fultz, and then moving him up to a starting SG as he acclimates to the NBA and improves his game. I think his skill set meshes well with Fultz as well.

I'm personally not that high on Ramsey. I think he's a late 1st early 2nd round guy.

From what I've seen he has no instincts for playing solid defense. He leaves guys, misses rotations, gets caught trying to steal and bites on pump fakes. And that was while playing at Texas Tech who are well known for their defense. 

I haven't seen anything that suggests he could play PG really. He only makes the most basic of reads as a passer.

I also don't buy his jumpshot as much as I'd like to. I'm not sure why because he meets a lot of criteria for taking and making lots of 3s including a variety of different ways but I think his FT% causes me some concern. I think he'll be a passable to good shooter in the NBA (33-37%) but I dont think he's as good as his college numbers look.

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

I know this is a terrible way to evaluate guys but it's hard not to look at the recent string of guards from Kentucky taken in the lottery, some of whom didn't show off their full potential in college, and not think "maybe I'm too low on Tyrese Maxey".

2015: Pick 13 Devin Booker

2016: Pick 7 Jamal Murray

2017: Pick 5 DeAaron Fox, Pick 11 Malik Monk (ok Monk was a miss)

2018: Pick 11 Shai Giligeous Alexander

2019: Pick 13 Tyler Herro 

 

[jmmagicfan 301]

6 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

I know this is a terrible way to evaluate guys but it's hard not to look at the recent string of guards from Kentucky taken in the lottery, some of whom didn't show off their full potential in college, and not think "maybe I'm too low on Tyrese Maxey".

2015: Pick 13 Devin Booker

2016: Pick 7 Jamal Murray

2017: Pick 5 DeAaron Fox, Pick 11 Malik Monk (ok Monk was a miss)

2018: Pick 11 Shai Giligeous Alexander

2019: Pick 13 Tyler Herro 

 

I'm having a hard time getting excited about Maxey as a potential pick, but you do make an excellent point (Monk excepted, and he still might come around). Maybe I'm too low on him as well?

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

23 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

I'm having a hard time getting excited about Maxey as a potential pick, but you do make an excellent point (Monk excepted, and he still might come around). Maybe I'm too low on him as well?

I go back and forth on him to be honest. His percentages are terrible and he's a little undersized are his main negatives. But he's a great point of attack defender, he's shown flashes of scoring at all 3 levels and, although I don't know much about him in highschool, apparently he showed much more as a passer there and people feel he may have been limited by playing with two other guards and with the poor spacing of Kentucky. Also his jumper looks good and his FT% is solid so it's possible his 3 point % is just sample size. If he made 7 more of his 3s he'd be at 35% from 3. I don't know. I think there are better prospects but we've seen prospects (especially highly recruited ones) underperform or be underutilized at Kentucky and be different players in the NBA. 

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

He's totally not the kind of player I usually like and, unless it turns out he has a 7 foot wingspan, he doesn't seem like the kind of prospect WeltHam like either, but it'd be really fun to draft Mason Jones in the second round.

He's a big time scorer. All kinds of dribble moves, can get to his jumper in a bunch of different ways. Super strong body which helps him finish. Gets to the free throw line an ungodly amount. But he might be the least athletic guard prospect in the draft. Doesn't have much burst, I don't think I've seen him dunk once, doesn't have much of an impact on defense either (although that may be due to his huge offensive role). I don't know if his game translates to the NBA but it'd be fun to find out. He might actually work as a small ball 3 or super small ball 4 off the bench because of his strength.

EDIT: I just looked up some advanced stats for fun. He had a Free Throw Attempt rate of .668 (for reference Harden lead the NBA in free throws and didn't have that high a rate). He shot 75% at the rim despite making only 1 dunk all season. (For reference Rudy Gobert shot 76% at the rim in the NBA this season). And he shot 35% from 3 while being assisted on only 50% of those (again for reference not a single Magic player was assisted on less than 63% of their 3s). Tell me that doesn't sound like a fun offensive player.

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

On 5/26/2020 at 9:55 AM, CTMagicUK said:

Riller is one of several score first, upperclassmen, point guards who will probably be available in the second round: him, Cassius Winston, Malachi Flynn, Markus Howard and Payton Pritchard. I'd be happy (to varying degrees) with one of those guys in the second if we don't go guard (Tyrell Terry?!) In the 1st round. 

The more I learn about this draft the more my early posts look wrong. Grant Riller should probably be a 1st round pick and he wouldn't be a huge reach at 15. 

On 5/28/2020 at 8:26 PM, CTMagicUK said:

Xavier Tillman is one of my favourite guys in the second round. Bit of a gadget player. Has a nice feel for the game, hustles hard on the boards, blocks shots and is a good finisher down low. He'd be a nice guy to fit into the rotation as a small ball 5. It's not a skillset we desperately need but I think he'll be an NBA player and that's enough in the second round.

Tillman also should probably go in the 1st round. If he's on the board at our pick in the second a lot of teams have screwed up.

On 7/9/2020 at 8:38 AM, CTMagicUK said:

I know this thread is essentially me talking to myself so sorry but here's one more thought:

I wonder what would happen if we get to pick 16 or whatever we have and Aleksej Pokusevski is still on the board. 7'0, 7'3 wingspan. Shoots and moves like a forward and passes and handles like a guard with good defensive instincts. The knocks on him are he's stick thin which affects him on both ends and he plays in the Greek 2nd Division. I think he's the ultimate Boom or Bust pick. And of course John Hammond famously selected another Boom or Bust pick from the Greek 2nd Division in about the same range pick as where we'll be. I'm not comparing him to Giannis in any way other than they're both unique prospects from the same European league, and we definitely don't need another big on the roster right now. But I can see why some front offices, maybe ours, would find it difficult not to pick him.

 

We should probably draft Poku. I'm talking myself into and thinking about guards because there are a bunch and we definitely need guard help. But if I prescribe to my previous post about always drafting the guy you think has the best chance of being a star, if Poku is on the board hes that guy. He's 7'0, he has shown ability as a movement shooter, off the dribble shooter, ball handler and passer and he's super long and has mad block/steal numbers. Yes he plays in a terrible league and he's rail thin but those are less problematic than the issues a lot of other guys have. 

[South_Aussie_Magic 90]

Appreciate the dedication CT, and it is hard not to want a safe, fundamentally sound guard with a really good shot... mostly because so many teams pick one up as an afterthought almost. Sort of a bonus for them along with their main prizes. We don't even get the prizes.