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2019-2020 Official Regular Season Thread

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3 minutes ago, Gordon MVP said:

I’m telling you we’re far behind on testing. Once testing is up to date the numbers will skyrocket BECAUSE ITS SPREADING LIKE CRAZY. 
 

oh please do not say physicians and virologists are saying otherwise. The overwhelming majority of physicians and virologists would shake their head at your statements. Maybe because I work with so many. So please continue to tell me what I see at work lol

I misread. Apologies.

Theres no data supporting that new cases are in fact new cases. In fact it’s saying the virus wasn’t spreading as quickly as they thought. I’ll find that article and post it.

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2 minutes ago, Gordon MVP said:

His response wasn't fine. And your not aware of those cuts because you didnt do the research.

 

 

 


 

 

Noted. 
 

You do realize that most of my frustration comes from media and people right? That was my original post about.

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12 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

Noted. 
 

You do realize that most of my frustration comes from media and people right? That was my original post about.

I get it man, and I agree with you. The hoarding is freaking ridiculous and I blame the media for that part. 

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Don't want to enter the discussion as it's really complex and with multiple possibilities, but.. I can tell you both, living in Italy, that you've a few misconceptions about what happened there, and other data's that are probably wrong (cause it's what the media says about the country, I imagine) Mostly:

- Reaction was really not that bad in Italy (consider that I'm usually highly critical of politics and decision.makers here), a lot of measures and the complete block of the Milan zone were taken quite rapidly, when people was still not understanding the problem. I'm actually more worried about the lack, of slow reaction of other european countries, and USA too in part, that had the "luck" to not being hit first (being the precursors it's always harder, you've less data and knowledge) and still were not that fast to get ready. The numbers now says that Italy is a big problem and a big focus, but that's just because was hit first. Unfortunately, I expect worst numbers in other countries that are already ahead of Italy curve (comparing the time-difference)

- The medical system in Italy it's one of the few things that still works well, and more than that, it's still open and free for everyone. I was actually more worried about you USA friends that have a different system in which is necessary to pay for some things, when the virus was still not a problem in your territory.  Hospital system is overwhelmed in zones where the virus hit the most, but that’s quite normal when a ton of people get sick in a very short time. It’s perfectly normal in the other zones. There’s really no indication that the smoking factor is a direct issue, but even if it’s, the difference between & of smokers in USA and Italy it’s not that big, and there’re a lot of nations that have a lot more smokers than Italy, and that could be in trouble soon.

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4 hours ago, Luke_FfS said:

Don't want to enter the discussion as it's really complex and with multiple possibilities, but.. I can tell you both, living in Italy, that you've a

- Reaction was really not that bad in Italy (consider that I'm usually highly critical of politics and decision.makers here), a lot of measures and the complete block of the Milan zone were taken quite rapidly, when people was still not understanding the problem. I'm actually more worried about the lack, of slow reaction of other european countries, and USA too in part, that had the "luck" to not being hit first (being the precursors it's always harder, you've less data and knowledge) and still were not that fast to get ready. The numbers now says that Italy is a big problem and a big focus, but that's just because was hit first. Unfortunately, I expect worst numbers in other countries that are already ahead of Italy curve (comparing the time-difference)

- The medical system in Italy it's one of the few things that still works well, and more than that, it's still open and free for everyone. I was actually more worried about you USA friends that have a different system in which is necessary to pay for some things, when the virus was still not a problem in your territory.  Hospital system is overwhelmed in zones where the virus hit the most, but that’s quite normal when a ton of people get sick in a very short time. It’s perfectly normal in the other zones. There’s really no indication that the smoking factor is a direct issue, but even if it’s, the difference between & of smokers in USA and Italy it’s not that big, and there’re a lot of nations that have a lot more smokers than Italy, and that could be in trouble soon.

 

Must be nice having taxes going to something that helps everybody instead of “defense” contractors’ new yachts.

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5 hours ago, Gordon MVP said:

I get it man, and I agree with you. The hoarding is freaking ridiculous and I blame the media for that part. 

And the people...People aren’t showing much common sense about this. They are showing how panicking makes it worse.
 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/doj-wants-suspend-constitutional-rights-205444026.html

 

See, this is what I’m talking about. Acting out of fear leads to bad decisions.

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24 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

And the people...People aren’t showing much common sense about this. They are showing how panicking makes it worse.
 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/doj-wants-suspend-constitutional-rights-205444026.html

 

See, this is what I’m talking about. Acting out of fear leads to bad decisions.

Right, I saw that...but that to me is fascist government officials  trying to take advantage of an emergency situation. Remember this is the guy calling this a hoax just a few weeks ago. He wasn’t secretly planning this. 

Also you might want to read this about another failure of the administration 

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21910S?__twitter_impression=true

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GordonMVP

Concern is developing that the “cure” here may be worse than the disease.  One always has to balance costs and benefits. An economic depression leads to excess deaths also and might make Coronavirus look like a walk in the park by comparison.  
 

See recent articles by David Katz at Yale and John Ionannidis at Stanford regarding the tradeoffs here.  Both are distinguished academics in this field.  The virus is mostly pretty harmless in people under 60.      
The idea is to focus on isolating the high risk population while allowing life to go on for everyone else.  Otherwise, keep this up for a few more weeks and the economic effects will be so dire that people won’t even notice when the virus recedes.  
 

There is no country in which this virus has infected a significant percentage of the population.  Even in Italy with 30k known cases,  or whatever the current number is, the population is 60 million.  I don’t see any reason to believe the projections that half our population will become infected (although it would help greatly to have herd immunity in the younger population).

 

 

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1 hour ago, JJZFL said:

GordonMVP

Concern is developing that the “cure” here may be worse than the disease.  One always has to balance costs and benefits. An economic depression leads to excess deaths also and might make Coronavirus look like a walk in the park by comparison.  

Both are distinguished academics in this field.  The virus is mostly pretty harmless in people under 60.      
The idea is to focus on isolating the high risk population while allowing life to go on for everyone else.  Otherwise, keep this up for a few more weeks and the economic effects will be so dire that people won’t even notice when the virus recedes.  
 

There is no country in which this virus has infected a significant percentage of the population.  Even in Italy with 30k known cases,  or whatever the current number is, the population is 60 million.  I don’t see any reason to believe the projections that half our population will become infected (although it would help greatly to have herd immunity in the younger population).

 

 

Of course. I am not advocating ignoring one side of the equation. But I think what most people fail to understand here is that we failed as a country because our federal government didn't do enough before the outbreak and at the beginning of the outbreak. All these draconian measures are there to make up for lost time. We could have avoided this entire scenario with the right team and protocol in place.

Secondly, we're seeing more and more data that this isnt harmless and people under the age of 60. This is why we can't just focus on a high risk population --  the only people not at risk are those under the age of 20. And here is proof of that data:

Quote

In the US, nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

Quote
Quote

In France, more than half of coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 60, suggesting it's not just the elderly at risk
https://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-french-coronavirus-intensive-care-patients-are-under-60-2020-3

 

Quote

 

In italy, "50% of our patients in the intensive care unit, which are the most severe patients, are over 65 years old," he said. "But that means that the other 50% of our patients are younger than 65.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-doctors-warn-covid-19-can-make-young-people-seriously-ill-11961000

 

If the worst case scenarios come true, we're gonna run out of ventilators

Quote

 

About 960,000 coronavirus patients may need to be put on ventilators at some point but the United States has only about 200,000 machines, according to the Society of Critical Care Medicine, the Associated Press reported.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200318/us-may-not-have-enough-ventilators-for-covid19

 

 

And remember, this is just the beginning here. We haven't reached peak infection. Right now our mortality rate is 1.5%, but were still lagging behind since the virus can cause serious illness 2 weeks after onset. Once the hospital systems get overwhelmed, that mortality rate is gonna skyrocket. 

Third, it's hard to apply any herd immunity models on a novel virus. That's because we really don't know if people are going to be immune. Similar to getting the flu, it may not make you immune to getting it again the next flu season. And the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% here. This is something that can surely kill 2-3% of the population. 

The UK already considered this but now they’re backing off of it.  Why?

Quote

 

In response, experts calculated that over 47 million people in the UK would need to be infected and then recover to achieve herd immunity, an estimate based on the idea that 70% of the population needs immunity to prevent the COVID-19 virus from spreading. Extrapolating from current case statistics, this would result in over one million dead and eight million needing critical care. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-herd-immunity-and-how-well-build-it-against-the-coronavirus-2020-3

 

Quote

 

About 80,000 people have recovered from the coronavirus already, and it’s likely they are now resistant, although the degree of immunity remains unknown. “I would be surprised, but not totally surprised, if people did not become immune,” says Myron Levine, an infectious disease expert at the University of Maryland. Some viruses, like the flu, do find ways to keep changing, which is why immunity against such seasonal germs isn’t complete.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/

 

Look there's no good answer here. The fact of the matter is, part of the reason were in this atrocious predicament is due to the bungling of this situation from the federal government. It's them we should be angry at.  Doctors and other experts are being asked now what to do to combat it now that we're late -- and unfortunately this is the only feasible answer. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Gordon MVP said:

Of course. I am not advocating ignoring one side of the equation. But I think what most people fail to understand here is that we failed as a country because our federal government didn't do enough before the outbreak and at the beginning of the outbreak. All these draconian measures are there to make up for lost time. We could have avoided this entire scenario with the right team and protocol in place.

Secondly, we're seeing more and more data that this isnt harmless and people under the age of 60. This is why we can't just focus on a high risk population --  the only people not at risk are those under the age of 20. And here is proof of that data:

 

If the worst case scenarios come true, we're gonna run out of ventilators

 

And remember, this is just the beginning here. We haven't reached peak infection. Right now our manrtality rate is 1.5%, but were still lagging behind since the virus can cause serious illness 2 weeks after onset. Once the hospital systems get overwhelmed, that mortality rate is gonna skyrocket. 

Third, it's hard to apply any herd immunity models on a novel virus. That's because we really don't know if people are going to be immune. Similar to getting the flu, it may not make you immune to getting it again the next flu season. And the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% here. This is something that can surely kill 2-3% of the population. 

The UK already considered this but now they’re backing off of it.  Why?

Look there's no good answer here. The fact of the matter is, part of the reason were in this atrocious predicament is due to the bungling of this situation from the federal government. It's them we should be angry at.  Doctors and other experts are being asked now what to do to combat it now that we're late -- and unfortunately this is the only feasible answer. 

 

I don't agree this is the only feasible answer.  And when you look at younger people who become very ill, you have to look at the denominator also.  No one would argue that it never happens, but severe illness is a much more prevalent in the elderly.  Mortality rates are unknown at this time because of a lack of data.  See Ioannidis who estimates mortality at between 0.05% to 1%.  Note that the people who've been tested so far are disproportionately those with the most severe symptoms.

Again, I'm not saying that no younger people will have serious illness, although the mortality rate under 60 has been exceedingly low.  But you have to balance efforts to prevent that with the damage current measures are doing to almost everybody.  That's the discussion that's ramping up right now.

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1 hour ago, JJZFL said:

I don't agree this is the only feasible answer.  And when you look at younger people who become very ill, you have to look at the denominator also.  No one would argue that it never happens, but severe illness is a much more prevalent in the elderly. 

Yeah but where do you pick and choose? I just showed you an article that in most developed countries, people admitted to the ICU, 50% are under the ages of 50-65. Anyone requiring admission to an ICU means they have a more severe illness and now has a higher risk of dying; they now require closer monitoring and critical care nursing quickly to have a chance to make it out alive.

Not controlling this disease for ages 20-44 eventually does harm because it now puts more pressure on the healthcare system -- this population is  gonna get sicker and eventually STILL pass it on to older patients, the people you want to protect. That's because this is spread in a chain reaction -- one person infects another person, and in turn that person can spread it to 10 other people. That will spread through grandkids, kids, family members, and eventually familes. See that New Jersey Family that just had 4 people die from a family gathering.

Quote

 Coronavirus: Four members of New Jersey family die

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51978164

 

And that's a problem -- to stop this virus we essentially have to stop everyone. Asymptomatic people are the invisible spreaders -- and these compromise 80% of those that are infected right now. Those are the people driving this. Compound to that our lack of tests, we cant properly identify them. Letting them spread it freely will then spiral everything out of control. 

The reason this virus has people freak out is because it has a unique combination of virulence and infectability with not so easy to ignore mortality rate. 

Also, are you saying let the people younger than 60 should go out and just risk their life? When we don't even know the true numbers yet as this is the beginning?

1 hour ago, JJZFL said:

 Mortality rates are unknown at this time because of a lack of data.  See Ioannidis who estimates mortality at between 0.05% to 1%.  Note that the people who've been tested so far are disproportionately those with the most severe symptoms.

We obviously don't have the exact mortality rates, but remember, we have to use the numbers we have and the numbers other countries, who have tested more than we have, to get an average of those numbers. 

Michael Olsterholm made a fantastic point when he said even this number doesn't change the fact that we have a high risk population in the United States - obese people:

Quote

For example, one of the risk factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS -- the most severe of the outcomes of COVID-19 infection -- is obesity. In parts of the world, including the US, where obesity is an epidemic problem, its likely we may see a different case fatality rate than we're seeing in China; that is, US fatalities may be less gender-specific and the rate of fatalities could be even higher than it is in China due to higher obesity rates among people 45 years or older.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html

 

1 hour ago, JJZFL said:

But you have to balance efforts to prevent that with the damage current measures are doing to almost everybody.  That's the discussion that's ramping up right now.

Now that you know what's at stake, i'd like to know what you propose to do instead of flattening the curve while we catch up?

Remember, once we catch up like China has, we can reopen the economy like they plan to do. 

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