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Fultz4thewin

2019-2020 Official Regular Season Thread

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Man.... this Doncic kid is really something special! I have never seen a player with such a feel for game like this kid and he’s only a sophomore. Gotta give Cuban props for seeing that. 

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7 minutes ago, Magicpassion said:

Man.... this Doncic kid is really something special! I have never seen a player with such a feel for game like this kid and he’s only a sophomore. Gotta give Cuban props for seeing that. 

Everybody saw it except for Phoenix and Sacramento. Our front office desperately tried to trade up for him but couldn't. When Atlanta had the deal with Dallas we tried to trade with Sacramento but they were in love with Bagley. 

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29 minutes ago, Fultz4thewin said:

Everybody saw it except for Phoenix and Sacramento. Our front office desperately tried to trade up for him but couldn't. When Atlanta had the deal with Dallas we tried to trade with Sacramento but they were in love with Bagley. 

It would be nice if we could get some of that luck back we used to have. These lean years are tough. We could use a break. :-)

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1 hour ago, Fultz4thewin said:

Everybody saw it except for Phoenix and Sacramento. Our front office desperately tried to trade up for him but couldn't. When Atlanta had the deal with Dallas we tried to trade with Sacramento but they were in love with Bagley. 

Where do you get this information?

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1 hour ago, Just a regular Magic fan said:

It would be nice if we could get some of that luck back we used to have. These lean years are tough. We could use a break. :-)

   I mean it's gonna be awhile.I feel like those two drafts with Doncic and Tatum were back-breaking. Mostly because we have some good pieces, just needed that last one.

Both drafts i think it came down to one ill timed win in the last week of the season.

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1 hour ago, Fultz4thewin said:

There was a ton of draft day chatter about it.

The 3 hours leading up to the draft when I legitimately thought we were getting Doncic were exhilarating.

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Quote

The second issue is Orlando’s lack of shooting, which manifests in a league-worst 3-point percentage: a ghastly 28.5 percent. More than bad luck, this result stems from a roster built with poor shooters. Using each player’s career 3-point performance before this season to predict how many 3s they’d expect to have made so far, Orlando’s “expected” 3-point percentage so far would be 33.5 percent—certainly better than where they sit now, but still a mark that would rank near the bottom of the league. Players like Terrence Ross and Vucevic have started cold from deep, but when half of the guard rotation is Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams, it’s hard to expect too many long-range fireworks.

These problems all compound such that Orlando has to work hard on seemingly every possession to score in the half court, which is a difficult trick to pull off for a single game, let alone a full season. On a night-to-night basis, the “defense wins championships” aphorism isn’t true.

Regular-season winning percentage actually correlates better with offensive than defensive rating. And specifically in the case of extreme teams, a tilt toward offense tends to produce a superior product. During the past decade, teams with elite offenses and terrible defenses fared better than their all-defense, no-offense counterparts. This chart shows the average results for teams with a top-10 ranking in one category and a bottom-10 ranking on the opposite side of the ball; we’ve also included top-10 in both and bottom-10 in both for comparison, to show the range of outcomes.

Outcomes for Extreme NBA Teams, 2010-19

Offense Defense Wins per 82 Games
Top 10 Top 10 57.4
Top 10 Bottom 10 44.6
Bottom 10 Top 10 41.6
Bottom 10 Bottom 10 22.8

On average, the teams with a sturdy defense and no offense have finished about .500, with 41.6 wins in 82 games—and that seems about right when looking at the Magic, who went 42-40 last season and now seem destined for that same band of wins again, as a best-case scenario.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/11/15/20965835/orlando-magic-aaron-gordon-defense

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7 minutes ago, The Neighborhood Bully said:

That's why our goal is to be an average offensive team, not a bottom 10 offensive team. 

 

Additionally, I think it's kind of disingenuous to use career averages for expected 3 point percentage. Gordon is a career 31% three point shooter but has shot 34% over the past 2 seasons. The expectation for his shooting is closer to 34 than 31. Isaac is a career 33% three point shooter but the expectation is he shoots much higher than that. 

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