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Fultz4thewin

2019-2020 Official Regular Season Thread

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1 hour ago, Fultz4thewin said:

No embiid tonight

Damn. I didn’t pay good money for my son and I not to see Embiid play! If we lose now I’m not going back for a while 

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54 minutes ago, magicblue said:

Damn. I didn’t pay good money for my son and I not to see Embiid play! If we lose now I’m not going back for a while 

Yeah the days of Wilt are long gone. These p**sies can’t play 80+ games 30 min. a game. Let alone 40+. 

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So, weird thing. Fivethirtyeight is still pretty bullish on us. We actually have some of the best odds to make the playoffs (82%) and their model still has us winning 42 by the end of the year with a margin of +1.

Probably because the East has been crap.

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1 hour ago, fan for too long 2 said:

Yeah the days of Wilt are long gone. These p**sies can’t play 80+ games 30 min. a game. Let alone 40+. 

The problem is the athletes of today have significantly more miles on their legs by the time they get to the NBA when compared to years past and there's studies that are starting to show that specialization is killing kids bodies. So in the past where (whoever you want to pick from the 60s or 70s) would grow up playing football in the fall, basketball in the winter, baseball in the spring and take the summer off. Now you're getting 100% basketball or football or baseball specialization. 

And instead of pickup basketball, 9th grade basketball, jv basketball, varsity basketball it's 12 and 13 year olds going through major tournaments playing 9 games in 4 days

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Great analogy 4thewin! So true, greed trumps everything these days across the spectrum on many different fronts; not just sports. Human beings have become a commodity. 

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25 minutes ago, Fultz4thewin said:

The problem is the athletes of today have significantly more miles on their legs by the time they get to the NBA when compared to years past and there's studies that are starting to show that specialization is killing kids bodies. So in the past where (whoever you want to pick from the 60s or 70s) would grow up playing football in the fall, basketball in the winter, baseball in the spring and take the summer off. Now you're getting 100% basketball or football or baseball specialization. 

And instead of pickup basketball, 9th grade basketball, jv basketball, varsity basketball it's 12 and 13 year olds going through major tournaments playing 9 games in 4 days

True. But on the other hand, training regimens and fitness equipment and the science behind all of it is also much better.  
 

And it’s not true across all sports.  20 years ago, tennis players felt like they couldn’t compete for top titles anymore once they hit 30, and mostly retired.  Now all the top players are in their 30’s and still ahead of everyone else.  Federer is nearly 40.  And they’ve all been playing 5-6 hours/day since they were kids.  

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5 hours ago, JJZFL said:

True. But on the other hand, training regimens and fitness equipment and the science behind all of it is also much better.  
 

And it’s not true across all sports.  20 years ago, tennis players felt like they couldn’t compete for top titles anymore once they hit 30, and mostly retired.  Now all the top players are in their 30’s and still ahead of everyone else.  Federer is nearly 40.  And they’ve all been playing 5-6 hours/day since they were kids.  

  

Increased training can add it's own wear and tear, and that training is beginning at much younger ages as well.

With tennis I think it may have more to do with players being able to maintain their quickness and flexibility better as they get older (because of advances in training), along with it being a lower impact sport in general.  It's not that comparable athletically.  Also there was a pretty flukey crop of all-time great players that just happened to show up around the same time with Federer, Nadal, Serena, and Djokovic a little later.  Nobody since has had the pure talent to really measure up.  

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So some interesting take aways from our team numbers:

1: We have done a good job of keeping teams from taking shots around the rim. Currently we allow the 3rd lowest percentage of opponent's shots around the rim of all teams. On the other hand, from 10 feet to the three point we allow the second most.

2: We are again towards the top of defensive rebounding rate and average offensive rebounding rate.

3: We are getting to the line at a better rate than last year (but could still get to the line more).

4: We have the second highest blocks per 100 and 6th highest steals per 100. On the other hand, as bad as we have been shooting, other teams haven't really been blocking our shots or getting a lot of steals off of us. (4th lowest steals and 11th lowest opponent blocks).

5: Almost everything seems to point to our team being better than our record suggests. We have a positive net rating, have actually scored more points throughout the year than we have given up, and sites hike fivethirtyeight still believe in our long term chances. Our offense has also been improving back to (relatively) reasonable levels. We no longer even have the worst EFG% in the league.

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8 minutes ago, Odin said:

So some interesting take aways from our team numbers:

1: We have done a good job of keeping teams from taking shots around the rim. Currently we allow the 3rd lowest percentage of opponent's shots around the rim of all teams. On the other hand, from 10 feet to the three point we allow the second most.

2: We are again towards the top of defensive rebounding rate and average offensive rebounding rate.

3: We are getting to the line at a better rate than last year (but could still get to the line more).

4: We have the second highest blocks per 100 and 6th highest steals per 100. On the other hand, as bad as we have been shooting, other teams haven't really been blocking our shots or getting a lot of steals off of us. (4th lowest steals and 11th lowest opponent blocks).

5: Almost everything seems to point to our team being better than our record suggests. We have a positive net rating, have actually scored more points throughout the year than we have given up, and sites hike fivethirtyeight still believe in our long term chances. Our offense has also been improving back to (relatively) reasonable levels. We no longer even have the worst EFG% in the league.

Also our 4th quarter defensive rating is 88.8. obviously it's early and almost assuredly going to jump up significantly but just for the sake of comparisons, the lowest fourth quarter defensive rating I can find with the data available since the 96-97 season is the 00-01 Knicks. They were at 91.1. most years no team has a fourth quarter defensive rating below 100. The best recent number I can find is the 10-11 bulls. They were at 96.2. 

Our 08-09 team was at 103.8

Last year's team post all star was 104.6

There best number over the past 3 seasons was the 17-18 raptors at 101.7

 

Crazy.

The Memphis game has some impact on that but even if I sort it just vs Eastern conference teams we're still at 96. And that number is heavily impacted by the Milwaukee game and doesn't include great defensive games against Dallas or OKC where we had sub 90 defensive ratings. 

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13 minutes ago, Odin said:

So some interesting take aways from our team numbers:

1: We have done a good job of keeping teams from taking shots around the rim. Currently we allow the 3rd lowest percentage of opponent's shots around the rim of all teams. On the other hand, from 10 feet to the three point we allow the second most.

2: We are again towards the top of defensive rebounding rate and average offensive rebounding rate.

3: We are getting to the line at a better rate than last year (but could still get to the line more).

4: We have the second highest blocks per 100 and 6th highest steals per 100. On the other hand, as bad as we have been shooting, other teams haven't really been blocking our shots or getting a lot of steals off of us. (4th lowest steals and 11th lowest opponent blocks).

5: Almost everything seems to point to our team being better than our record suggests. We have a positive net rating, have actually scored more points throughout the year than we have given up, and sites hike fivethirtyeight still believe in our long term chances. Our offense has also been improving back to (relatively) reasonable levels. We no longer even have the worst EFG% in the league.

1. I think that is by design - mid range and long 2's are the least efficient shots on average, so if you are going to give up/force a shot, that is the preferred shot to give up.

2. Again, I think this is also by design - Clifford is much more focused on getting back/defense; and not really big on offensive rebounding.

3. Hope this continues - not sure why, but wonder if it is partly due to guys who aren't shooting well from outside attacking the paint more?

4. Isaac having a block party and defensive team focus? Hard to block because of our length? Taking care of the ball is another Clifford focus item.

5. Encouraging, let's hope it continues improving. I really think TRoss was having more of an issue with health than any of us realized.

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6 minutes ago, Fultz4thewin said:

Also our 4th quarter defensive rating is 88.8. obviously it's early and almost assuredly going to jump up significantly but just for the sake of comparisons, the lowest fourth quarter defensive rating I can find with the data available since the 96-97 season is the 00-01 Knicks. They were at 91.1. most years no team has a fourth quarter defensive rating below 100. The best recent number I can find is the 10-11 bulls. They were at 96.2. 

Our 08-09 team was at 103.8

Last year's team post all star was 104.6

There best number over the past 3 seasons was the 17-18 raptors at 101.7

 

Crazy.

The Memphis game has some impact on that but even if I sort it just vs Eastern conference teams we're still at 96. And that number is heavily impacted by the Milwaukee game and doesn't include great defensive games against Dallas or OKC where we had sub 90 defensive ratings. 

So again...we just need to hit shots and reduce the amount of time droughts last. If only it was so easy lol. 

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