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Fultz4thewin

2019-2020 Official Regular Season Thread

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     I think in some ways this is our worst nightmare because we just locked  down our roster for two years. Look around the league.

     Some teams are playing new guys big minutes because of injuries, some teams because of new coaches or low expectations.Look at Charlotte and Washington. Both those teams were cooked last year with high payroll and huge non productive contracts.Charlotte let Kemba walk and still had Batum,Biyombo and Gilchrist contracts.

     They acquired a few second round players and starting benching the under performers. Batum, Monk and Gilchrist are not getting minutes. Bacon, Graham and PJ are getting heavy minutes.The point is they made a few changes and it's working.I'm not saying they will have a better record then us later on, just  that they made some changes.

     Same thing in Washington. Bertans and Bryant were sneaky good pick-ups.Wagner was an incredible easy trade swap. Troy Brown is a big guard looking good for them, as is Hatchimura. Both are from the last two drafts and look like they can put the ball in the basket. Do they have the ceiling of our last two rookies? Probably not, but they sure look like basketball players and not projects.

      Whole point of this is, when it comes to scoring the basket we are locked in to one archetype of player. Without Ross and Vooch getting hot, its really tough for us.

Gordon, Isaac and Fultz are not offensive players.They might have an occasional big night, but it's really not their thing. Really wanted to find a gem like Devonte Graham, but we rounded out our roster with guys like Aminu,MCW,Bamba and Jefferson. 

      Again, once the shots start falling we will overtake Charlotte and Washington in the standings.Look out though, because they both might have a better future just by being a little more flexible with their roster.Don't even get me started on the Hawks and Heat.

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3 minutes ago, hootie249 said:

     I think in some ways this is our worst nightmare because we just locked  down our roster for two years. Look around the league.

     Some teams are playing new guys big minutes because of injuries, some teams because of new coaches or low expectations.Look at Charlotte and Washington. Both those teams were cooked last year with high payroll and huge non productive contracts.Charlotte let Kemba walk and still had Batum,Biyombo and Gilchrist contracts.

     They acquired a few second round players and starting benching the under performers. Batum, Monk and Gilchrist are not getting minutes. Bacon, Graham and PJ are getting heavy minutes.The point is they made a few changes and it's working.I'm not saying they will have a better record then us later on, just  that they made some changes.

     Same thing in Washington. Bertans and Bryant were sneaky good pick-ups.Wagner was an incredible easy trade swap. Troy Brown is a big guard looking good for them, as is Hatchimura. Both are from the last two drafts and look like they can put the ball in the basket. Do they have the ceiling of our last two rookies? Probably not, but they sure look like basketball players and not projects.

      Whole point of this is, when it comes to scoring the basket we are locked in to one archetype of player. Without Ross and Vooch getting hot, its really tough for us.

Gordon, Isaac and Fultz are not offensive players.They might have an occasional big night, but it's really not their thing. Really wanted to find a gem like Devonte Graham, but we rounded out our roster with guys like Aminu,MCW,Bamba and Jefferson. 

      Again, once the shots start falling we will overtake Charlotte and Washington in the standings.Look out though, because they both might have a better future just by being a little more flexible with their roster.Don't even get me started on the Hawks and Heat.

Wait. Monk is playing 18 mpg, Batum isn't benched, he fractured a finger, Mkg isn't missing time because he's underperforming, he's missing time because he's on an expiring contract and plays the same position as their last two first round picks. 

And I think you're completely misdiagnosing our offensive issues. It's not "unless Vucevic or Ross get hot we're cooked".

 

If Vucevic, Ross, and Fournier were simply bad instead of horrible last night we win and have a great offense. 

Magic fans keep describing a situation where our ok offensive players are playing ok and "if we didn't play so many defense only guys we'd be able to score" but that's not what's happening at all. Our defensive guys are performing. It's the offensive guys who are causing the problems. 

We had a 115 offensive rating in the first half which basically means we were on pace to score 112 points for the game despite poor shooting. 

We had a 104 offensive rating in the third quarter. Which is fine. Not great. About average. 

 

We had a 65 offensive rating in the fourth quarter which is basically playing on pace for 63 points for the game. 

We would have won that game easy if Vucevic, Ross, Fournier, and augustin shot better than 2/12 in the fourth. 

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6 minutes ago, Fultz4thewin said:

Wait. Monk is playing 18 mpg, Batum isn't benched, he fractured a finger, Mkg isn't missing time because he's underperforming, he's missing time because he's on an expiring contract and plays the same position as their last two first round picks. 

And I think you're completely misdiagnosing our offensive issues. It's not "unless Vucevic or Ross get hot we're cooked".

 

If Vucevic, Ross, and Fournier were simply bad instead of horrible last night we win and have a great offense. 

Magic fans keep describing a situation where our ok offensive players are playing ok and "if we didn't play so many defense only guys we'd be able to score" but that's not what's happening at all. Our defensive guys are performing. It's the offensive guys who are causing the problems. 

We had a 115 offensive rating in the first half which basically means we were on pace to score 112 points for the game despite poor shooting. 

We had a 104 offensive rating in the third quarter. Which is fine. Not great. About average. 

 

We had a 65 offensive rating in the fourth quarter which is basically playing on pace for 63 points for the game. 

We would have won that game easy if Vucevic, Ross, Fournier, and augustin shot better than 2/12 in the fourth. 

      18 minutes is nothing if he was the player he was projected to be, he would be getting over 25. Batum injury is a blessing.

Your wrong about our veterans, they are the offensive core of this team and i'm glad you brought up those 4 players. Two of them just had career years and got paid for it. 

I know our defensive players are performing, it's almost like your proving my point. For years we said Fournier,Vooch and Dj were good players but not great.Ross was well known to be a streaky shooter.Our observations seem on point.If you stick with mediocre players you get middling results.I think the fact that they are all slumping to start the season is a bit shocking. We don't have a star to lift us in desperate times, we need a team effort.

      I said this is about the worst thing that could happen because we pinned our offensive hope on our veterans.None of our youngsters are setup to explode offensively like other young players around the league. At least this year its really about our vets.Biggest thing we have going is health, nobody is hurt yet.We know those guys will start shooting, i don't think Ross and Vucevic are the type of players to get fat and happy on a big contract. Like you said they are ok contracts because i think they will be steady all 4 years.However, we already saw the ceiling last year,I think that was it. 

     It's really going back to the same  argument for 4 years with the Magic.Most of us think our vets are 3rd or 4th options on a real contender.And the problem i see twith our young players i don't see an offensive star, we still need a volume scorer. It really seems like the last 2 years we passed on alot of offense.

     I'm tired of looking in the box scores every night and seeing so many people scoring 30 and nobody on our team can even get 20.

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4 minutes ago, hootie249 said:

      18 minutes is nothing if he was the player he was projected to be, he would be getting over 25. Batum injury is a blessing.

Your wrong about our veterans, they are the offensive core of this team and i'm glad you brought up those 4 players. Two of them just had career years and got paid for it. 

I know our defensive players are performing, it's almost like your proving my point. For years we said Fournier,Vooch and Dj were good players but not great.Ross was well known to be a streaky shooter.Our observations seem on point.If you stick with mediocre players you get middling results.I think the fact that they are all slumping to start the season is a bit shocking. We don't have a star to lift us in desperate times, we need a team effort.

      I said this is about the worst thing that could happen because we pinned our offensive hope on our veterans.None of our youngsters are setup to explode offensively like other young players around the league. At least this year its really about our vets.Biggest thing we have going is health, nobody is hurt yet.We know those guys will start shooting, i don't think Ross and Vucevic are the type of players to get fat and happy on a big contract. Like you said they are ok contracts because i think they will be steady all 4 years.However, we already saw the ceiling last year,I think that was it. 

     It's really going back to the same  argument for 4 years with the Magic.Most of us think our vets are 3rd or 4th options on a real contender.And the problem i see twith our young players i don't see an offensive star, we still need a volume scorer. It really seems like the last 2 years we passed on alot of offense.

     I'm tired of looking in the box scores every night and seeing so many people scoring 30 and nobody on our team can even get 20.

Fultz is showing flashes of being able to create his own offense. 

 

Of course we need a high volume first option on offense. But that's easier said than done when we don't have cap room to sign a first option on offense, every first option on offense has been more interested in joining another first option for the last several years so we weren't ever considered a viable free agent destination for stars. Boston and LA have held the trade market hostage until this year. And we haven't passed on any real first option guys in the draft. Some have developed into first options unexpectedly but the first option guys in our range have been DSJ and Monk who suck. 

 

 

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While I don't like overractions for our team situation, and even less called the coach to be fired or things like that, I've to say that for whom didn't like the moves of the last offseason, that start is a little confirmation of their worries.

I understand all the reasons why management has kept the core intact, but at the same time I was not happy with the decision, and I'm not now. It's like we have two different teams on the same one, one group of veterans that are good playing slow pace and a certain style, and the young crop that would probably like and need a completely different approach. Are we really improving them (while supposedly winning) playing along the veterans, or are we actually blocking them to reach a new level with more responsability? I think that is a fair concern. I'm sure that our offense would even be more hopeless without some of the veterans (not that right now we're watchable... but we all assume we will improve) and at the same time, I feel the group will play better together and grow with all the errors and bumps on the road. (that's also probably a coach thing, Clifford is not going to accept a fast style even with only the young core playing, like he doesn't want to crash the offensive boards with all of that size we have, or playing without a true center more often than in one game...)

What about the strong start we were assumed to have staying put?

What about the constant inability to close a game, even giving the responsability to the more expert ones?

I've the same mixed feelings than on july, no matter how bad we started, mixed like the two teams we're trying to develop at the same time.

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20 minutes ago, Luke_FfS said:

While I don't like overractions for our team situation, and even less called the coach to be fired or things like that, I've to say that for whom didn't like the moves of the last offseason, that start is a little confirmation of their worries.

I understand all the reasons why management has kept the core intact, but at the same time I was not happy with the decision, and I'm not now. It's like we have two different teams on the same one, one group of veterans that are good playing slow pace and a certain style, and the young crop that would probably like and need a completely different approach. Are we really improving them (while supposedly winning) playing along the veterans, or are we actually blocking them to reach a new level with more responsability? I think that is a fair concern. I'm sure that our offense would even be more hopeless without some of the veterans (not that right now we're watchable... but we all assume we will improve) and at the same time, I feel the group will play better together and grow with all the errors and bumps on the road. (that's also probably a coach thing, Clifford is not going to accept a fast style even with only the young core playing, like he doesn't want to crash the offensive boards with all of that size we have, or playing without a true center more often than in one game...)

What about the strong start we were assumed to have staying put?

What about the constant inability to close a game, even giving the responsability to the more expert ones?

I've the same mixed feelings than on july, no matter how bad we started, mixed like the two teams we're trying to develop at the same time.

I said in July. It's fine that they want to cheat a bit and develop while they try to win but the value of Vucevic, Ross, and Aminu isn't going to be what they do for us this year, it's going to be how tradable they are before July 2021. That's our window for making big moves before we need to resign Isaac and fultz. 

If we can't flip them for positive long term stuff then the signings were really stupid and short sighted. If we can turn them into any long term piece it was smart. 

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So I did the math. If we simply hit open and wide open shots at the rate we did last year we'd be averaging 100.2 ppg. 

I don't know what that does to our record because made shots don't get distributed evenly per game but that's 6.6 ppg and 46.2 points on the season we're missing. Maybe 30 of those points belong in the Milwaukee game and we're still 2-5. Maybe they get allocated to the close games and we're 6-1. But the solution to go from horrible offense to below average is just making shots. 

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8 hours ago, Fultz4thewin said:

...We had a 115 offensive rating in the first half which basically means we were on pace to score 112 points for the game despite poor shooting. 

We had a 104 offensive rating in the third quarter. Which is fine. Not great. About average. 

We had a 65 offensive rating in the fourth quarter which is basically playing on pace for 63 points for the game. 

We would have won that game easy if Vucevic, Ross, Fournier, and augustin shot better than 2/12 in the fourth. 

Yeah, but the 4th quarter is when it mattered most.  The pressure was on, and both teams were trying their hardest, including Oklahoma on defense.  And when it really mattered, our team folded.  I actually think that’s even worse.  You can’t assume that because the team did ok during the earlier part of the game, they should continue to do well in crunch time.  It’s different when the pressure is on. You would hope they could deliver but so far this season they haven’t shown it.  

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6 minutes ago, JJZFL said:

Yeah, but the 4th quarter is when it mattered most.  The pressure was on, and both teams were trying their hardest, including Oklahoma on defense.  And when it really mattered, our team folded.  I actually think that’s even worse.  You can’t assume that because the team did ok during the earlier part of the game, they should continue to do well in crunch time.  It’s different when the pressure is on. You would hope they could deliver but so far this season they haven’t shown it.  

Yes. They should be better than that. 

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18 minutes ago, Fultz4thewin said:

Yes. They should be better than that. 

Well on the bright side they have another chance to get it together tonight.  It seems like Dallas could be a tougher opponent than Oklahoma, though.  

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15 hours ago, Fultz4thewin said:

I said in July. It's fine that they want to cheat a bit and develop while they try to win but the value of Vucevic, Ross, and Aminu isn't going to be what they do for us this year, it's going to be how tradable they are before July 2021. That's our window for making big moves before we need to resign Isaac and fultz. 

If we can't flip them for positive long term stuff then the signings were really stupid and short sighted. If we can turn them into any long term piece it was smart. 

While I can understand your point of view and the management choice (even if, for example, Vuc contract hasn't turned into anything when he was younger and on a very friendly contract, so I really doubt that will net something great in the future.. obviously I hope to be wrong) that really doesn't answer a couple of the concerns I've expressed, and a cheat it's still a cheat and sometimes you have to pay the price for it.

We were supposed to be starting on fire with that proved roster, and we don't even be able to do that. We already showed we were limited coming playoffs. There was a lot of excitement in the forum, even talking about going top4 in the East and be almost contenders, and now that turned in depression mode again.

I would have loved to take a step back, play the young group more, together and with their own style, while not being hard-capped and with no space at all to make some additional moves that could have helped in the future. I always thought that the mediocrity treadmill was the worst option for any NBA team, but maybe it's just me...

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