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Jay Magic

2019 NBA Playoff Thread

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2 hours ago, ?4thewin said:

It's weird that everyone expects us to shoot poorly in game two when

1. Statistical regression doesn't work that way. Just because we shot 48% in one game doesn't mean we need to shoot 22% in the next game to make it even. Regression works over a significant period of time. Sample size is a thing because anything can happen in 1, 3, 7, 10 games. So just as flipping heads once doesn't mean you're more likely to flip tails the next time we're not more likely to shoot poorly in game 2 because we shot great in game 1. 

2. We schemed a lot of wide open spot up threes.

-Augustin was the best spot up shooter in the NBA this year

-Ross was top 10

-Fournier was in a slump this year but was top 20 in the NBA last year in spot up threes. 

-Gordon made his three in the corner where he shoots 48%. Isaac is shooting 38% from that corner. 

It’s a lazy argument. Playing that hypothetical game ignores countless other variables that all exist simultaneously.

So, “Orlando won’t shoot so well from 3” might be true on its own (it also might not), but then maybe we shoot better than 22/61 (36%) from 2. Maybe Vooch/Gordon/Ross improve from 8/35 collectively.  Maybe Kawhi hits less contested shots but Lowry wakes up. Maybe Isaac holds Pascal more in check. Maybe Ibaka has a better showing. 

Raptors fans and sadly lots of national pundits are inherently creating excuses to explain an unexpected outcome, and in doing so they then describe the variables that most easily would lead to the expected outcome (Raptors winning) — which is how we get to “well the Magic will shoot 3s worse and Lowry won’t go scoreless again”. Both might be true! Only problem is you can’t hold the other stuff constant simultaneously.  If those things change, so does 3/14 for Vooch. So does 2/11 for Ross. 

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8 minutes ago, ML6 said:

It’s a lazy argument. Playing that hypothetical game ignores countless other variables that all exist simultaneously.

So, “Orlando won’t shoot so well from 3” might be true on its own (it also might not), but then maybe we shoot better than 22/61 (36%) from 2. Maybe Vooch/Gordon/Ross improve from 8/35 collectively.  Maybe Kawhi hits less contested shots but Lowry wakes up. Maybe Isaac holds Pascal more in check. Maybe Ibaka has a better showing. 

Raptors fans and sadly lots of national pundits are inherently creating excuses to explain an unexpected outcome, and in doing so they then describe the variables that most easily would lead to the expected outcome (Raptors winning) — which is how we get to “well the Magic will shoot 3s worse and Lowry won’t go scoreless again”. Both might be true! Only problem is you can’t hold the other stuff constant simultaneously.  If those things change, so does 3/14 for Vooch. So does 2/11 for Ross. 

Well said.  It’s still just making excuses, even if seemingly more sophisticated (not really as your discussion shows).  

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Yeah, I just love how the narrative randomly became that we can’t play much better than we did and Toronto can’t play much worse. We’ll see what they say after game 2 is competitive.

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1 minute ago, All Eyes On Me said:

Yeah, I just love how the narrative randomly became that we can’t play much better than we did and Toronto can’t play much worse. We’ll see what they say after game 2 is competitive.

Yeah, all of us on this board recognize we can play much better than we did. So can the Raptors. But the people who think we somehow played at our peak don’t have the frame of reference we do. That was not that close to our best. 

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6 minutes ago, TrueMagicFanSince1987 said:

I’d love to join! Let me know if you still have a spot open. 

Yes sir! Just send me your email via private message, please. Have you played fantasy before or are you a newbie?

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1 minute ago, Mauro Pedrosa said:

Yes sir! Just send me your email via private message, please. Have you played fantasy before or are you a newbie?

Sounds good will do. I used to play back in my higschool/college days but it’s been a while since I’ve done Fantasy Basketball. I usually just do FF every year. Hope that’s alright!

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Just now, TrueMagicFanSince1987 said:

Sounds good will do. I used to play back in my higschool/college days but it’s been a while since I’ve done Fantasy Basketball. I usually just do FF every year. Hope that’s alright!

No problem at all. Our league is VERY competitive, but has a fun environment, full of Magic fans. I'll be here to share the rules with you and answer any questions

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2 minutes ago, Mauro Pedrosa said:

No problem at all. Our league is VERY competitive, but has a fun environment, full of Magic fans. I'll be here to share the rules with you and answer any questions

I don’t mind competition I look forward to the season. 

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Ok.  Philly's crowd is hostile is hell but it appears they are very aware of their players capabilities.  Especially Ben Simmons.  I think they're provoking him to do what he's suppose to do which is attack the rim.  If he turns the ball over or doesn't shoot the ball when open, he definitely here's it.  Everyone on the team gets a roasted boo's.  I don't watch philly consistently but these past two games have shown that Philly fans pay attention.  

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