JJZFL 619 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 57 minutes ago, ?4thewin said: Because games aren't 0% or 100%. They're somewhere in the middle. 538 gives us a 49% chance of beating Charlotte and Cleveland a 38% chance to beat Charlotte. That gives us a 87% chance to make the playoffs. Unfortunately probability doesn't work like that. Otherwise if there were 3 games left and we had a 34% chance of a good outcome in each, we'd have a 102% chance of being successful, which obviously isn't correct. The math works like this: Charlotte has a 51% chance of beating us (accepting the numbers below). Charlotte also has a 62% chance of beating Cleveland. The probability of both those events occurring is obtained by multiplying (not adding) the two probabilities. Thus there is about a 32% chance that those two bad outcomes occur, again assuming those estimates of 49 and 38 are accurate. If we lose both remaining games, that means there is a 32% chance we aren't in the playoffs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MagicOne 119 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 My playoff odds have now dropped to 32 percent for the Magic. Everything is coming up roses for Charlotte. The Magic should drop the game tonight in Boston while the Hornets will beat a struggling Pistons team with a banged up Griffin. They will easily beat the Cavs in their next game. In conclusion Charlotte will beat the Magic as they always do in their building. Kemba gets what Kemba wants. As I have stated numerous times the thing that cost the Magic a playoff spot was losing the 3 straight games to the Bulls, Cavs, and Knicks. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TrueMagicFan07 671 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 Oh boy, I just saw Griffin go back to the locker room. Edit: He was limping. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magicdoc1 261 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 40 minutes ago, magicblue said: No. If Detroit wins we are in because Charlotte and Miami would both be eliminated. At least that was my understanding before today’s games began 11 minutes ago, Mauro Pedrosa said: He meant to say Charlotte instead of Detroit, in his last sentence YES. Sorry, I meant Charlotte. But we got this! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DirtDan2012 201 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 For all the bickering about our odds, we really need to remember that we hold our fate in our hands. If we win one more game then we're in. Let's just stop looking at the scoreboard and take care of our own *****ing business. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MagicOne 119 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 When you have Kemba all ODDS are thrown out the window. Remember Kemba gets what Kemba wants. It's simple math actually. Hornets win their last 3. We lose our last 2, while Brooklyn and Detroit do just enough to get in. After the Hornets win today my playoff odds for the Magic drop to 24 percent. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Just a regular Magic fan 38 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, MagicOne said: My playoff odds have now dropped to 32 percent for the Magic. Everything is coming up roses for Charlotte. The Magic should drop the game tonight in Boston while the Hornets will beat a struggling Pistons team with a banged up Griffin. They will easily beat the Cavs in their next game. In conclusion Charlotte will beat the Magic as they always do in their building. Kemba gets what Kemba wants. As I have stated numerous times the thing that cost the Magic a playoff spot was losing the 3 straight games to the Bulls, Cavs, and Knicks. You never know, so I wouldn't get all worked up over it. No matter what happens we have had a decent season and there are several players to be excited about next year. Shifting back to the Charlotte game. It seems ESPN was smart to pull that one to their network Wednesday night. In your opinion, do we have anyone who can guard Kemba and shut him down? If not, is there another strategy we can use to help us overcome and pull out a tough win? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DirtDan2012 201 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, MagicOne said: When you have Kemba all ODDS are thrown out the window. Remember Kemba gets what Kemba wants. It's simple math actually. Hornets win their last 3. We lose our last 2, while Brooklyn and Detroit do just enough to get in. After the Hornets win today my playoff odds for the Magic drop to 24 percent. I'll be very honest. The guy that scares me more on that team is Lamb. If people don't guard him on the perimeter he'll just kill you from 3 point land. Kemba gets all the attention and believe me the coaching staff is well aware of this. JLamb gets a lot of clean looks this way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jjgator 164 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 Blake is back and they said Kemba went to the locker room. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DirtDan2012 201 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, jjgator said: Blake is back and they said Kemba went to the locker room. Blake's been a warrior this season. I'd be bummed if he missed the playoffs. He deserves it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, MagicOne said: When you have Kemba all ODDS are thrown out the window. Remember Kemba gets what Kemba wants. It's simple math actually. Hornets win their last 3. We lose our last 2, while Brooklyn and Detroit do just enough to get in. After the Hornets win today my playoff odds for the Magic drop to 24 percent. Can you break down your math? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jjgator 164 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 Ish has 10pts, the only one that's scored off the bench so far. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
