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The Neighborhood Bully

2018-19 Official Season Discussion Thread

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Yeah, so the Charlotte situation still scares me. They have two very winnable games before our matchup with them. If everything goes wrong with them winning out and us losing out, we’d both finish 42-42 and they’d get in and we wouldn’t. We also would lose tiebreakers to BKN and DET at that record. So our only saving hope would be either BKN or DET losing out to get to 43 losses, which would create a spot for us to get back in. 

So let’s just win tomorrow and put it to bed. 

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28 minutes ago, ML6 said:

Yeah, so the Charlotte situation still scares me. They have two very winnable games before our matchup with them. If everything goes wrong with them winning out and us losing out, we’d both finish 42-42 and they’d get in and we wouldn’t. We also would lose tiebreakers to BKN and DET at that record. So our only saving hope would be either BKN or DET losing out to get to 43 losses, which would create a spot for us to get back in. 

So let’s just win tomorrow and put it to bed. 

Stop worrying about the Hornets. We have so many combinations to get in. There are 5 of us battling for 3 spots. Chances are if Charlotte gets in then 2 of Brooklyn, Miami, or Detroit won't make it. 

Miami still has Toronto, Philly, and Brooklyn If they win out they hit 41 but then Brooklyn can't win out.

Brooklyn has the Bucks, Pacers, and Miami. If they win out they hit 42 but then Miami can't win out

Detroit has Charlotte, Memphis, and NY. If they win out they hit 42 but Charlotte can't win out

Charlotte has Detroit, Cleveland, and us. If they don't win out they are done. If they do win out then Detroit can't win out. If they are done when they play us I'm praying that they sit Kemba.

We have Boston then 2 days rest before Charlotte who has a back to back.
No matter what any of them do if we win 1 we are in and if we win both there is a good chance we get Philly in round 1. Ideally we could be in before we even play another game.

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4 minutes ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

Stop worrying about the Hornets. We have so many combinations to get in. There are 5 of us battling for 3 spots. Chances are if Charlotte gets in then 2 of Brooklyn, Miami, or Detroit won't make it. 

Miami still has Toronto, Philly, and Brooklyn If they win out they hit 41 but then Brooklyn can't win out.

Brooklyn has the Bucks, Pacers, and Miami. If they win out they hit 42 but then Miami can't win out

Detroit has Charlotte, Memphis, and NY. If they win out they hit 42 but Charlotte can't win out

Charlotte has Detroit, Cleveland, and us. If they don't win out they are done. If they do win out then Detroit can't win out. If they are done when they play us I'm praying that they sit Kemba.

We have Boston then 2 days rest before Charlotte who has a back to back.
No matter what any of them do if we win 1 we are in and if we win both there is a good chance we get Philly in round 1.

Very succinct

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Brooklyn COULD lose twice, Miami once, and either Detroit or Charlotte will definitely lose 1 before we play again. Detroit still has Memphis who badly wants to finish 9th where their pick is conveyed or next year it is only top 6 protected.

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From a probability standpoint, it's a 6.4% chance that we lose out and Charlotte wins out. That number should get slightly smaller when we include other teams. 

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I've gone back and forth every 5 minutes on whether we want Charlotte to beat Detroit (allowing us to control our own destiny for the 6 seed) or if we want Detroit to beat Charlotte (increasing the odds that we've made the playoffs without winning another game). 

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25 minutes ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

Chances are if Charlotte gets in then 2 of Brooklyn, Miami, or Detroit won't make it. 

 

This is the part I disagree with which makes all the downstream arguments somewhat irrelevant. If Charlotte gets in that pretty much means we’re out barring very unlikely scenarios. If they’re in, that means we’re 40-42. The only way that’d still get us in is if DET or BKN lose out.

I’m not saying it’s likely it unfolds that way. But if it does we’re pretty much screwed because of tiebreakers. 

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If we go 1-1, Detroit goes 2-1, and Brooklyn goes 1-2 we get the 7th seed.

If we go 1-1, Detroit goes 2-1, and Brooklyn goes 2-1 we get the 6th seed. 

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1 minute ago, ML6 said:

This is the part I disagree with which makes all the downstream arguments somewhat irrelevant. If Charlotte gets in that pretty much means we’re out barring very unlikely scenarios. If they’re in, that means we’re 42-42. The only way that’d still get us in is if DET or BKN lose out.

I’m not saying it’s likely it unfolds that way. But if it does we’re pretty much screwed because of tiebreakers. 

If Charlotte wins out we could still finish 41-41 and get in if we beat Boston. I think Detroit beats Charlotte and knocks them out.

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