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The Neighborhood Bully

2018-19 Official Season Discussion Thread

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21 minutes ago, The Neighborhood Bully said:

If we really want to free up cap space, can't we stretch Mozgov's last year and open up $11M?

Yeah

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1 hour ago, Originalticketholder said:

And not good for our playoff chances.  I am starting to believe it will take 40 wins to get in.  I had Nets struggling to do that until last night.  If they beat Lakers in their next game they will be at 38 wins with 8 games left.    Even though their schedule is tough thye can eek out 2 wins to get to 40.  I project Miami to have 38 wins after they beat the Knicks on March 30th.  Then they need 2 wins in 6 games to get to 40 which they could easily do.  That means we need to go 7-4 in the last 11 games to get to 40.  Possible but definitely a tall order.  It would help if we could win at Miami on March 26th since i have that game as one of Miami's win.

I don't see Miami getting 40. 

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7 minutes ago, The Neighborhood Bully said:

If we really want to free up cap space, can't we stretch Mozgov's last year and open up $11M?

The only way we get to the $16M in cap space that ?4TW was alluding to is if we waive our RFA (Martin/Grant/Birch), and do not resign Vucevic and Ross.  Waiving and stretching Mozgov at that point would open up about another $11M. That would leave us with $27-27.5M in cap space, but only ten players under contract (assuming we pick #11/sign pick at 120%). That might be worthwhile doing if we know that we can sign a multi-time, all-star caliber free-agent. But, you have to make your pick beforehand to fill one of your holes, and you have no guarantee of getting that big name free agent. It's a pretty big gamble and swing for the fences.  This is what you would be starting with/trying to sell said free agent on the team he is joining, our first round pick, and:

Augustin/Briscoe/Fultz(?)

Fournier

Isaac/Iwundu/Frazier

Gordon

Bamba

I think it more likely that we try to retain Ross, and Birch,  (and Vuc??) and try to fill in with the Mid-Level and/or the Bi-Annual Exception. I think the Waive/Stretch provision may be used on Mozgov if it looks like we need to do that to stay under the luxury tax; but I don't have a feel for the "new" ownership group now that Rich DeVos is no longer with us. 
 

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1 hour ago, ?4thewin said:

Yeah

I'll have time to research this later so don't feel obligated, but do you have a TL;DR to offer on the stretch provision?  I've never understood it.  I thought it was initially akin to the amnesty provision where it was a one-time thing.

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40 minutes ago, ML6 said:

I'll have time to research this later so don't feel obligated, but do you have a TL;DR to offer on the stretch provision?  I've never understood it.  I thought it was initially akin to the amnesty provision where it was a one-time thing.

No. Because they instituted a hard cap they had to institute a policy to let teams get off of the hard cap if they need to sign players to fill their roster obligations. Otherwise there might be a situation where a team can trigger the hard cap, make a several players for one player trade and go right up against the hard cap but only have 12 players on the roster which doesn't meet the minimum roster spot threshold. 

So anytime anyone waives a player they have the option to eat the money on regular schedule or reduce the salary in a total salary divided by (years x2)+1 rate. 

So if we waive Mozgov this summer we can either have his 16.72 million on the books for just next year or split up his cap hit into 3 years of $5,573,333.33. 

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13 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

I don't see Miami getting 40. 

I think it will take at least 39 wins for us to make the playoffs. It is conceivable that it will take 40.

Detroit is sitting in 6th at 36-34, with 12 games left; 5 home, 7 away. They have away games at Phoenix and New York, and home games against Charlotte and Memphis; so they look to have a pretty clear path to 40. They also have an away/home match-up with Indiana, and we know how hard it is for one team to take both, so that gives them a good shot at 41 wins.They currently lead us in season series 2-1, we meet again in Detroit 3/28. If we win, it ties the season series. At that point the tie-break is conference record, we currently lead on percentage, but they only have five conference games left, we have nine. A tied record might get us in, it might not. I don't think we can catch Detroit.

Brooklyn is currently in 7th at 37-36, with 9 games left; 4 home, 5 away. They have a beastly finishing schedule. They only have two games left against sub-.500 teams; at the Lakers this Friday, and home vs. Miami the final game of the season. They have seven games in between all against playoff teams. Their path to 40 is extremely difficult, as they would probably have to upset at Portland, or home versus Boston or Indiana; as well as taking both the LAL and Miami games. They won the season series with us 2-1; so we would need to have a better record, a tie won't do it. We might have a shot to get past Brooklyn, if they get on a losing streak, it could snowball.

Miami is currently in 8th at 34-36, with 12 games left; 4 home, 8 away.  Their final schedule is tough, but actually not as bad as Brooklyn's. They have five games left against sub-.500 teams (one vs. us). They also have an away/home match-up with Boston. If they lose to us, but take the other four games vs. sub-.500, and manage to take the home game vs. Boston; that still puts them at 39 wins. We lead the season series 2-1, so if we beat them, we take the season series, and a tied record would get us the playoff spot.  We currently lead them in both divisional and conference records, so a tied season series might still get us in; but we probably need that win to get to a tie.

We are currently in 9th at 33-38, with 11 games left; 5 home, 6 away. We have home games against New Orleans, Memphis, New York, and Atlanta. I think we need to win all four of those games to have a shot at the playoffs. We would then presumably need to win 2 of the 3 away games against Miami, Detroit, and Charlotte. Our remaining games are home vs Philadelphia, away versus Indiana, Toronto and Boston. I think that there is still a path for us to get to the playoffs, as I think 39 wins might do it. 

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22 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

No. Because they instituted a hard cap they had to institute a policy to let teams get off of the hard cap if they need to sign players to fill their roster obligations. Otherwise there might be a situation where a team can trigger the hard cap, make a several players for one player trade and go right up against the hard cap but only have 12 players on the roster which doesn't meet the minimum roster spot threshold.  

So anytime anyone waives a player they have the option to eat the money on regular schedule or reduce the salary in a total salary divided by (years x2)+1 rate. 

So if we waive Mozgov this summer we can either have his 16.72 million on the books for just next year or split up his cap hit into 3 years of $5,573,333.33. 

Got it, thanks

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29 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Yeah. He's had a couple fantastic games since the all star break that bookend a streak of games where he's been basically unplayable

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Mirotic to miss 2-4 weeks for the Bucks.  Brogdon already out.  Not sure there's enough time left for Toronto to overtake them, but that would be a dream scenario if we slide into 8.

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5 hours ago, Originalticketholder said:

As you stated we only will $16 million anyway so we can forget Russell.   It is obvious that some one and done's take time to develop.  Lakers gave up on Russell too early and looks like he will have a nice career.  I think we have the same, and actually even better in Fultz.  Philly's discard too early may become our Russell even better.

Oh I for one truly believe he will

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