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The Neighborhood Bully

2018-19 Official Season Discussion Thread

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9 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

It doesn't really make sense to spend money on a third center when they're super cheap and easy to find.

If we can get Birch for like 4 million a year then it's probably worth keeping him but if he wants more than that then just go get some other guy. 

You could let Birch walk and give his minutes to Amile. See how he develops. 

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8 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

It doesn't really make sense to spend money on a third center when they're super cheap and easy to find.

If we can get Birch for like 4 million a year then it's probably worth keeping him but if he wants more than that then just go get some other guy. 

I fully agree with you - but the analogy was too much to pass up lol!

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Does anyone else think the drama the Pelicans are going through is almost identical to the drama we went through with Dwight?

  1. Dysfunctional team drama
  2. Rumors of "which team he wants to go to" 
  3. Head coach bearing the load
  4. GM is fired, new one brought in the handle the situation
  5. Player who left has his image/reputation hurt
  6. The Lakers are involved

I just hope Davis doesn't end up regretting this like Dwight has

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32 minutes ago, TrueBlueDrew said:

just hope Davis doesn't end up regretting this like Dwight has

Good last point. With a new gm coming in, AD should be open to staying. Jrue is a very good running mate, and they have plenty of time to win in NO.

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52 minutes ago, All Eyes On Me said:

I wouldn’t put it past Cliff WeltHam to look to trade Bamba attached with a guy for an upgrade and roll with a Vucevic/Birch Center tandem.

Birch is a legitimate backup center imo - and has outplayed Bamba - BUT - if Bamba makes the same strides as JI we would be missing out on something very special! If Birch would be satisfied as a third stringer ( with a third string contract) we would be in very good position irregardless of Bamba improvement (or lack thereof)! The addition of Fultz with the resigning of Vuc and Ross would make us playoff bound fo sho next year!

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56 minutes ago, Notguilty said:

Birch is a legitimate backup center imo - and has outplayed Bamba - BUT - if Bamba makes the same strides as JI we would be missing out on something very special! If Birch would be satisfied as a third stringer ( with a third string contract) we would be in very good position irregardless of Bamba improvement (or lack thereof)! The addition of Fultz with the resigning of Vuc and Ross would make us playoff bound fo sho next year!

      Eh, in this new league the most useful aspect of Bamba is his rookie contract.Very few centers actually move the needle in wins these days. 

That being said i don't see him going anywhere, but i would have happily traded him for DSJ two months ago. Just my humble opinion.

His success will depend on him and the system and players we put him around. Great centers like Gobert,Capella,Horford,Adams, and Drummond didn't win without a few stars around them. Better centers like Davis,Boogie,Towns and Embid struggled without much help. 

So i guess what i'm really saying lets see how he fits in. 

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I think you guys are selling Birch short in a big way.  I don't agree that you can just pick any backup center off a tree and they'll all be the same.  The fact is that both last season and this season, the team played its best, and had its best record, when Birch was playing significant minutes at backup center.  Whether it's his energy and desire that inspires his teammates, his ability to be in the right place at the right time defensively, or some other intangible, Birch seems to correlate with us winning.  I would be hesitant about giving that up.

Do all of you think we'd be doing as well right now if Bamba was still playing?

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20 minutes ago, JJZFL said:

I think you guys are selling Birch short in a big way.  I don't agree that you can just pick any backup center off a tree and they'll all be the same.  The fact is that both last season and this season, the team played its best, and had its best record, when Birch was playing significant minutes at backup center.  Whether it's his energy and desire that inspires his teammates, his ability to be in the right place at the right time defensively, or some other intangible, Birch seems to correlate with us winning.  I would be hesitant about giving that up.

Do all of you think we'd be doing as well right now if Bamba was still playing?

Agreed but we can’t overpay him. Would love to keep him tho for the reasons you specified

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31 minutes ago, JJZFL said:

I think you guys are selling Birch short in a big way.  I don't agree that you can just pick any backup center off a tree and they'll all be the same.  The fact is that both last season and this season, the team played its best, and had its best record, when Birch was playing significant minutes at backup center.  Whether it's his energy and desire that inspires his teammates, his ability to be in the right place at the right time defensively, or some other intangible, Birch seems to correlate with us winning.  I would be hesitant about giving that up.

Do all of you think we'd be doing as well right now if Bamba was still playing?

If we don't resign Vuc I would make him a decent offer maybe 4/20-24 and split the minutes until/if Bamba gets up to speed. Birch has been great for us!

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Birch is a career backup. Hell get 1 + 1 option contracts his whole career and maybe get $2mil a year which is a steal cause hes a 2nd stringer who is often playing 3rd string

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1 hour ago, JJZFL said:

I think you guys are selling Birch short in a big way.  I don't agree that you can just pick any backup center off a tree and they'll all be the same.  The fact is that both last season and this season, the team played its best, and had its best record, when Birch was playing significant minutes at backup center.  Whether it's his energy and desire that inspires his teammates, his ability to be in the right place at the right time defensively, or some other intangible, Birch seems to correlate with us winning.  I would be hesitant about giving that up.

Do all of you think we'd be doing as well right now if Bamba was still playing?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23795646/2018-nba-draft-centers-deandre-ayton-marvin-bagley-easily-replaceable&ved=2ahUKEwiA0rjOqb_gAhVws1kKHSPyA4MQjjgwAnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw05pVCsFWVEYftlA960nL0w

 

Center production available cheaply

Back in the early 2000s, the fear was that the center position was going extinct for lack of talent. The problem now is the opposite of that. With higher 3-point attempt rates providing so much spacing around spread pick-and-roll offenses, the productivity of centers has never been better -- making useful centers easy to find.

During the 2017-18 season, players who saw a majority of their action at center (based on lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats and my own assessment of player positions) collectively posted a .587 true shooting percentage -- 25 points better than the next-best position (power forwards at .562; league average was .557). Centers managed that despite finishing 19.5 percent of their teams' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover, barely below the league average of 20 percent.

As a result, weighted by minutes played the average center had a player winning percentage of .560, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric akin to player efficiency rating. League average is .500 by this measure, and no other position topped that mark (power forwards were next at .498). Something similar is true with ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), where the weighted average for centers was a plus-1.3 rating (power forwards were next best at plus-0.3).

Naturally, that means centers dominated the WARP leaderboard. Of the 66 players to post at least five WARP this season, an incredible 26 played primarily as centers -- nearly 40 percent, or about twice the expected number if all positions were distributed equally.

The issue here is that as centers have become more productive, that has affected both the stars and the journeymen. In practice, I've defined replacement level for WARP as the performance of players signed as free agents for the minimum before the season, a group that now includes players signed to two-way contracts. Again, centers stand out among their replacement-level peers for their effective play.

Led by McGee and West, centers signed for the minimum combined for 15.3 WARP this season, as compared to minus-6.6 WARP for replacement players at other positions. While some year-to-year fluctuation in the replacement pool is natural -- for example, the other positions rating collectively below replacement in 2017-18 was unusual -- there's a long-term trend of replacement centers outperforming their peers.

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