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21 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

20/20 hindsight - I don't recall a single posting on the board saying that Mario had done anything that made picking up his year 4 option worthwhile. Up to that point his "flashes" were few and far between, and didn't seem to be increasing in frequency, which might have given us a reason to pick it up. In point of fact, I wonder if the fact that we didn't pick up his option is what lit the fire and caused him to focus more and start producing. The idea that suddenly there was no guarantee and he could be out of the league if he didn't. 

I recall a considerable conversation discussing the reasons why picking up his option was worthwhile

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26 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

20/20 hindsight - I don't recall a single posting on the board saying that Mario had done anything that made picking up his year 4 option worthwhile. Up to that point his "flashes" were few and far between, and didn't seem to be increasing in frequency, which might have given us a reason to pick it up. In point of fact, I wonder if the fact that we didn't pick up his option is what lit the fire and caused him to focus more and start producing. The idea that suddenly there was no guarantee and he could be out of the league if he didn't. 

I would have top agree that not being picked up lit a fire and caused him to focus. There is no other explanation for why all of the sudden he was playing like a different player. Maybe he was personally tanking to get out of Orlando?

4 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

I recall a considerable conversation discussing the reasons why picking up his option was worthwhile

I remember people saying he would be out of the NBA. Based on what he had shown so far and the fact that no team wanted to trade for him I was one of those people.

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1 minute ago, ?4thewin said:

I recall a considerable conversation discussing the reasons why picking up his option was worthwhile

Let me rephrase, I don't remember a large outcry saying we absolutely should pick it up. There was considerable discussion about whether he had done enough, whether extenuating circumstances (coaching changes, position changes, etc) contributed to his issues, and whether it was too early to give up on him. There might have been one person who came out strongly against not picking up the option; but it seemed like most people were in agreement that he wasn't worth the $5M plus option when the time came to make that decision. 

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2 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

I do agree with you about them trading away some of last years picks, instead of getting some of the players that were available. I can see how they might have wanted to limit the number of players that they were trying to evaluate. Getting playing time for those picks last year while still evaluating the entire current roster "could" have made that process more difficult. I still think it was a mistake, but I can see both sides on that.  

7 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

20/20 hindsight - I don't recall a single posting on the board saying that Mario had done anything that made picking up his year 4 option worthwhile. Up to that point his "flashes" were few and far between, and didn't seem to be increasing in frequency, which might have given us a reason to pick it up. In point of fact, I wonder if the fact that we didn't pick up his option is what lit the fire and caused him to focus more and start producing. The idea that suddenly there was no guarantee and he could be out of the league if he didn't. 

I was being a bit surly and tongue in cheek. I generally like their moves and like that they have a philosophy that they are trying to stick to.

I think you should almost always pick up the rookie option though, especially at a high pick unless the player is absolutely unplayable- which he wasn't.

The pick thing isn't necessarily about trading the draft picks. It is the return on the draft picks. Think about trading the draft picks as an investment. If you are going to delay your pick- not getting value for it now- you should be getting more value for it later.

It is basically a similar idea as the time-value of money in finance. A pick now is worth more than a pick years from now- as you can draft a player who (hopefully) can immediately help your team.

Just as a monetary example. Say you lend someone $100, with the expectation that they pay you back one year from now. If they merely pay you back $100, you actually lost value as you could have invested that money and earned a return, and even inflation would have reduced the buying power of that $100. So you instead expect to get at least $102, just to break even on inflation.

NFL execs have this idea down. Every pick in the future is basically valued as one round lower for the current draft. So a future second is generally valued as a current 3rd round pick, and etc. Obviously, we do not have as many rounds, and the value of a pick in the NBA is different, especially a top pick. None the less, if you trade a current pick, you should have a chance at getting a higher pick in the future as compensation.

So, if we take the first rounder as an example. It was the 21st pick in the draft. In return, we got a top 20 protected pick in 2020, 2021, or 2022- which changes to two seconds in 2022 and 2023 if it doesn't confer.

So, at best, we get the 20th pick (one whole spot up from where we were) 3 years after we picked, with a good chance to only get 2 second rounders. That is just a bad return. That is loaning someone $100, with a 5% chance at getting $105 in three years, but more likely getting between $80-90 3,4, or 5 years in the future or getting $25 and $30 dollars two subsequent years after.

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55 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

Let me rephrase, I don't remember a large outcry saying we absolutely should pick it up. There was considerable discussion about whether he had done enough, whether extenuating circumstances (coaching changes, position changes, etc) contributed to his issues, and whether it was too early to give up on him. There might have been one person who came out strongly against not picking up the option; but it seemed like most people were in agreement that he wasn't worth the $5M plus option when the time came to make that decision. 

I don't think so. I think there was a large contingent saying he was worth it based on the simple fact it's stupid to give up on a early lotto pick after only two seasons. For the past two years I held firm that the time to discuss giving up on Mario was a few weeks before the trade deadline 2018. There was no downside to keeping Mario (we didn't gain any cap space. We're still 12 million under the luxury tax. We haven't filled his roster spot or spot in the rotation with anything substantial) and there was only upside. Either he was going to have a career resurgence or he was going to be an interesting trade piece for a throw in or at the very least he would be a mid sized expiring contract to help facilitate a trade (something we're lacking right now). 

It was a pretty dumb move at the time and now. 

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34 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

I don't think so. I think there was a large contingent saying he was worth it based on the simple fact it's stupid to give up on a early lotto pick after only two seasons. For the past two years I held firm that the time to discuss giving up on Mario was a few weeks before the trade deadline 2018. There was no downside to keeping Mario (we didn't gain any cap space. We're still 12 million under the luxury tax. We haven't filled his roster spot or spot in the rotation with anything substantial) and there was only upside. Either he was going to have a career resurgence or he was going to be an interesting trade piece for a throw in or at the very least he would be a mid sized expiring contract to help facilitate a trade (something we're lacking right now). 

It was a pretty dumb move at the time and now. 

And yet when we tried to trade him nobody would even offer a 2nd for him. He had the entire league fooled and based on his contract I'd say they are still very skeptical.

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22 minutes ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

And yet when we tried to trade him nobody would even offer a 2nd for him. He had the entire league fooled and based on his contract I'd say they are still very skeptical.

Because we tried to trade him between the end of preseason and the first week of the season which is a terrible time to shop a guy as rosters are full and not ready for a shake up

Also 1 year 6.5 isn't really a skeptical offer. 

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24 minutes ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

And yet when we tried to trade him nobody would even offer a 2nd for him. He had the entire league fooled and based on his contract I'd say they are still very skeptical.

He received more than one offer this off season, so there were multiple teams interested.

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5 hours ago, Odin said:

Sorry, forgot that the Weltham plan is to not pick up the rookie options on talented but struggling players who have shown flashes of talent- only to watch the player improve as the year goes on and lose the player for nothing. Or to trade away current draft picks for future, likely worse, draft picks.

Hezonja didn’t fit the wingspan and defensive specialty mold. Letting him go made sense for new management. Jury is still out if they made the right decision. 

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7 minutes ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

How much more after NY taxes is this than what we could have paid him?

My quick and lazy math says about $400,000 after taxes.

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3 minutes ago, Catalina Maria said:

Hezonja didn’t fit the wingspan and defensive specialty mold. Letting him go made sense for new management. Jury is still out if they made the right decision. 

He's still someone with modest trade value who we could have used to obtain a guy who is a better fit. Or moved up in the draft. 

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