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2018 Official Offseason Thread

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15 hours ago, ?4thewin said:

That Wiggins/Jones trade suggestion is interesting. 

Speaking of Timberwolves I am still lamenting pick  at #43 of J. Jackson over Bates-Diop especially comparing their summer league stats and career stats ....  I get that the jury is still out but I see a distinct possibility we may  have passed on a player, who dropped due to injury and AGE concerns, who fit what we are trying to build.  Taking a risk in the mid-40's on draft night not really a risk at all.  Hope J. Jackson not a bust because, early on, it looks like Bates-Diop will not be one

https://hoopshabit.com/2018/06/30/minnesota-timberwolves-3-reasons-keita-bates-diop-was-a-good-pick/

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On 7/11/2018 at 4:00 PM, Franchise408 said:

I don't agree with tanking, because you are purposefully sinking your team and developing a losing culture, all on the hopes that you win the lottery in the draft and get the right positioning, at a time when a franchise changing player is available. It is far too fickle to bank on as a viable rebuilding strategy.

You can go back about 20 years or so, and the #1 overall pick is about a 50-50 at best of landing a player that is or isn't a bust. The # of teams that have successfully rebuilt their franchise into champions is even less. The premiere franchise in the league right now is doing it with 2 mid lottery picks, a 2nd rounder, and a free agent. Cleveland won 0 champions with a drafted LeBron James, and it wasn't until he came back as a free agent that they won 1 championship. The Spurs are the big example of a team who build a dynasty off the back of Tim Duncan, a guy who they paired with David Robinson who was hurt the previous year, the only reason they had the #1 pick to begin with. They didn't intentionally tank. Celtics are an asterisk because they won their championship with high draft picks that were traded. The Magic build a 2 year contender off the back of a #1 overall pick, but never won a championship, losing to a superstar that was drafted in mid lottery. One of the few non Lakers, Celtics, LeBron, or Warriors teams to win a championship was the Mavericks who won it off the mid lottery drafted Dirk Nowitzki.

Basically, what I'm saying is that in the past 20 or so years, the only "tank" draft picks that won a championship with the original team that drafted them were Tim Duncan, Dwyane Wade, and Kyrie Irving, and 2 of those guys won it with major free agent help (Wade: Shaq, and later LeBron and Bosh. Irving: LeBron)

So basically the strategy of tanking means you're gonna be the ONE team in about a span of a decade that drafts someone who will bring you a championship.

Those are not viable odds to rely your entire team rebuilding strategy on.

Of course, teams are going to naturally "tank" by circumstance - I.E. when Dwight left, of *course* the Magic were going to suck, but circumstance. I don't blame Hennigan for our first couple years being bad. But I do blame him for employing a strategy that simply doesn't work, and has been proven time and time again to not work, and not taking any other initiatives to improve the team.

I get that as an organization, the Magic have had a lot of success with the #1 overall pick in the draft, and not a lot of success outside of that spot. But just because we've had poor decisions being made in the past does not mean that tanking for the #1 pick is the only viable way to build a team. As I've stated above, it's actually the least viable way to build your team.

Just as many teams have won and competed with no big time players (ala the 2004 Pistons) as have won with their original top 3 draft pick.

My contrarian friend,

I have been in the ER and hospital the last couple of days with my 92+ year old father in law so I am just catching up on these lively "tanking" discussions that I missed.  I also do not agree with tanking, as do most on this site, not because of success or failure because you can make it a success, but  I oppose it due to the nature of trying to lose.....just goes against basic competitive instinct.   While you note lots of examples and stats of how it will not ensure a  championship title, tanking does work (that is where you are wrong) to make a team better and more competitive faster and quicker if done correctly.  I give you the 76'er's, the masters of tanking.  But that competitive success could be applied to the tanking Lakers, the tanking Maverick's, the tanking Suns (premature success but you see it coming with Ayton (#1) and Jackson (#4) in the mix) and numerous others.  Even If I won only one title I still would have like LeBron on my team rather than hot have him.  Tanking is not just about the #1 pick but about continued picks in the top 3 or 4 (where would the Bulls be without a certain # 3 pick named Jordan or Warriors without #2 pick Durant).  While Philly did not hit on every one of those and no team does, each year the odds increased they would and they did!  Philly perfected tanking model when , at the same time, we failed if we tried.   Their model produced copycats forcing Silver and the league to address it because it succeeded.  

And I do find your posts insightful (not always correct)  and do not find you "intellectually dishonest" and hope you did not take that too personally and I like this site, which is not for the "faint of heart" or thin skinned posters, because of it's honesty and bluntness.  After all B.I.G.4TheWin, our moderator,  is an equal opportunity "tells like he sees it" poster of everyone. lol.

Just keep hoping MagicFan1234 resurfaces and your posts will receive far less attention.  lol

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Mauro Pedrosa    488

The IT situation is one of the most bizarre things I've witnessed. I get the injury concerns, but his upside is still there and I thought that SOME team would throw around 8 million at him.

I think Denver is a great basketball fit for him, though

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Mike1989    54
4 hours ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

I have to think that management was dead against IT because he was just too far off from our plan

It does make me question what our intention is for next season. A healthy IT could have been an upgrade over what we've got here, but do we want to win games next season or is our intention to stick with our young talent and development them (ie a semi-final for another top ten pick)? 

If it's the former then signing IT makes sense because if he does get healthy and return to form then he would boost our win count. However if it's the latter then signing IT makes no sense because he could boost our win total too much. Part of this depends on what our intention and aims for the coming season are.

Obviously we need to factor in injuries, do we believe he can overcome them and stay healthy? If not, passing on him makes sense. Then there's the culture side of things, if we want to build a team based around lengthy athletic players that play good defense, again passing on IT makes sense. After his injuries will he be better than DJ? Maybe, maybe not. So even if we push aside the win-loss side of things there are reasons, and perhaps more reasons on top of this, that made us pass on signing IT even at a cheap price.

The shame here is that we didn't have the space to take on a salary dump like Faried for a first round pick next year. It would be nice if we could stockpile some picks for future drafts.

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Mike1989    54
9 minutes ago, Mauro Pedrosa said:

The IT situation is one of the most bizarre things I've witnessed. I get the injury concerns, but his upside is still there and I thought that SOME team would throw around 8 million at him.

I think Denver is a great basketball fit for him, though

It's a case of who needs a starting point guard and are willing to throw the dice on him. I honestly don't see a team in either conference with an open spot, so it was likely to be a backup role for IT. I am surprised he's signed for the deal he has, but at the same time it's a prove it deal and that might make him more appealing this time next year if he's stayed healthy and returned to form. However I suspect a sixth man like role is probably going to be his thing going forwards.

Denver is ideal for him and adds a scoring punch to their bench unit. When you can take Jamal Murray off and put on IT that's a good rotation to have.

 

 

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magicdoc1    165

what is the Hawks doing?? Can someone make some sense out of this Lin deal? They Drafted for the future PG and now traded for Lin while still keeping Schroder as their starter PG. Thats like 30millions on the PG position. Granted Lin is an expiring contract but why??

Love the Denver and IT deal. I just don't know why we or even the knicks couldnt offer a similar deal to IT. He is now a very valuable trade piece if he return to half of what he was 2 years ago coming playoff time. 

Faried, 2019  first round and a second round pick to the NETS for peanuts.. wow. 

Are we getting any picks for VUC??? LOL. 

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Mike1989    54
23 minutes ago, magicdoc1 said:

what is the Hawks doing?? Can someone make some sense out of this Lin deal? They Drafted for the future PG and now traded for Lin while still keeping Schroder as their starter PG. Thats like 30millions on the PG position. Granted Lin is an expiring contract but why??

Love the Denver and IT deal. I just don't know why we or even the knicks couldnt offer a similar deal to IT. He is now a very valuable trade piece if he return to half of what he was 2 years ago coming playoff time. 

Faried, 2019  first round and a second round pick to the NETS for peanuts.. wow. 

Are we getting any picks for VUC??? LOL. 

Perhaps they have a deal in place for Schroder?

Not sure the Knicks would be interested. They've got Ntilikina, Burke and Mudiay at the PG spots. Hardaway Jr, Dotson and Baker at the SG spot. So guard wise they seem to be fine and without Porzingis they might be looking to tank for a top pick in next year's draft.

It would be great if we could get something in return for Vucevic or Fournier, but knowing us we'll not get much in return for them... 

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?4thewin    1,753
1 hour ago, Mauro Pedrosa said:

The IT situation is one of the most bizarre things I've witnessed. I get the injury concerns, but his upside is still there and I thought that SOME team would throw around 8 million at him.

I think Denver is a great basketball fit for him, though

Outlier small basketball players have a very slim margin of error in their careers. When they lose a step it effects them more than other players.

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Magicman28    249

Small and injured? Yeah that played a role. Not Weltman's MO. However I think it's more about AG/Isaac than IT. I firmly believe AG was told he was going to have a huge role offensively. IT is very ball dominating and probably even more this year to prove something.

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?4thewin    1,753
1 minute ago, Magicman28 said:

Small and injured? Yeah that played a role. Not Weltman's MO. However I think it's more about AG/Isaac than IT. I firmly believe AG was told he was going to have a huge role offensively. IT is very ball dominating and probably even more this year to prove something.

I think the AG stuff presumptive. 

I just think if you take all the potential IT scenarios with their probabilities together, on average IT is probably going to be a negative impact player this year. Denver mitigates that some by playing him off the bench and the fact their defense can't get much worse anyway. 

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Magicman28    249
2 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

I think the AG stuff presumptive. 

I just think if you take all the potential IT scenarios with their probabilities together, on average IT is probably going to be a negative impact player this year. Denver mitigates that some by playing him off the bench and the fact their defense can't get much worse anyway. 

AG didn't even test the waters and we got him on a really good deal. It's all speculation on my part I admit. When Clifford went out there, I believe his role in the offense was a big part of the discussion.

Big price tag but a guy like CJ would be ideal. Maybe even Brogdon.

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?4thewin    1,753
2 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

AG didn't even test the waters and we got him on a really good deal. It's all speculation on my part I admit. When Clifford went out there, I believe his role in the offense was a big part of the discussion.

Big price tag but a guy like CJ would be ideal. Maybe even Brogdon.

I think we think we have enough potential targets next year in kemba, Rozier, wright, Russell, Brogdon, bledsoe that it makes sense to just hold the position open and not give up assets now. 

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