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2018 Official Offseason Thread

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?4thewin    1,724

"no, I didn't mean busts. When I said busts I meant 'not franchise changing players'."

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Odin    85
2 minutes ago, Franchise408 said:

Oh so you've seen Ayton's career already.

Awesome.

But I'm the dishonest one?

Neither of you should be putting the last 2 years in your percentages. It is dishonest on both sides.

You can't really say Fultz is a bust. You can't say he isn't. Same with Ayton.

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Franchise408    65
3 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

"no, I didn't mean busts. When I said busts I meant 'not franchise changing players'."

Yes, because "bust" can ONLY mean a player who ends up ducking horribly.

"A draft bust occurs when a highly touted or highly selected draftee does not meet expectations. This can be for a variety of reasons, but the most often noted are injury or inability to perform at a professional level. A player is also regarded as a larger bust if more successful players are drafted after him or her."

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Franchise408    65
Just now, Odin said:

Neither of you should be putting the last 2 years in your percentages. It is dishonest on both sides. 

Which is exactly why I stated 8/17 or so. Fultz is a question mark. Ayton hasn't even played.

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Franchise408    65

The purpose of tanking is to get a franchise changing player. Not Elton Brand or Kenyon Martin. So yes, under that criteria, they are busts, and it happens at about equal rates to getting a player who justifies the spot.

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?4thewin    1,724
15 minutes ago, Odin said:

Neither of you should be putting the last 2 years in your percentages. It is dishonest on both sides.

You can't really say Fultz is a bust. You can't say he isn't. Same with Ayton.

I used 97-16

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?4thewin    1,724
20 minutes ago, Franchise408 said:

Oh so you've seen Ayton's career already.

Awesome.

But I'm the dishonest one?

1 hour ago, ?4thewin said:

Between the 1997 draft and the 2016 draft the only busts were Bennett, oden, bargnani, Brown, olowokandi. 

That's a 75-25, not 50/50

Yes. You're the dishonest one. 

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Franchise408    65

So then Fultz and Ayton would be years 21 and 22.

So you're right that its 8/20 that weren't franchise changers.

So 12 / 20 that were. So I'll concede the 60/40 split.

But my point still stands that only 2 of those guys have won a championship with the team that originally drafted them.

Only 5 of them have even gotten to the Finals with their original team.

So 1 out of 4. Every 4 years, 1 player will come along that will change the fortunes of his team to get to a championship round. Every 10 years, 1 player will come along that actually wins his team a championship.

That is NOT worth tanking an entire franchise for.

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Franchise408    65
5 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

Yes. You're the dishonest one. 

No, I'm not. I misread your 2016 and thought you wrote 2018. Just because my point still stands doesnt mean I'm dishonest.

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Odin    85
5 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

I used 97-16

Apologies. I missed that.

Anyway, if you aren’t already good, there are 4 basic ways to get good.

1. Tank. Almost all of the best players are high draft picks- and for good reason. Get one or two (or more) good prospects to build your team around on the cheap.

2. Get lots of cap space and sign multiple all-star type players. If already mediocre, you can open up space for only one star if you already have another. (T-Mac and Grant Hill to Orlando, the Heatles)

3. Stockpile assets to trade for a star. (The Houston)

4. Be the Lakers.

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jec    367
17 minutes ago, Franchise408 said:

So then Fultz and Ayton would be years 21 and 22.

So you're right that its 8/20 that weren't franchise changers.

So 12 / 20 that were. So I'll concede the 60/40 split.

But my point still stands that only 2 of those guys have won a championship with the team that originally drafted them.

Only 5 of them have even gotten to the Finals with their original team.

So 1 out of 4. Every 4 years, 1 player will come along that will change the fortunes of his team to get to a championship round. Every 10 years, 1 player will come along that actually wins his team a championship.

That is NOT worth tanking an entire franchise for.

This doesn't take into account all of the other factors that lead to success in the playoffs. If you're evaluating a top draft pick, evaluate them as a player, not by team accomplishments. The 76ers tanked and got some great young players. Good for them. Now they have to find a way to actually win. The tanking got them the pieces they needed. It's not the solution to everything.

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