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Bauncey Chillups

2018 NBA Draft Thread

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16 hours ago, ?4thewin said:

We don't have to be good.  We just have to win one more game than Brooklyn, Atlanta, and Sacramento and the same number as phoenix Dallas and Memphis.  

 

I would rather win one or two more games and then trade our pick and a future first (since we dont have Phillys anymore) to move up two spots. Common sense and our management dont see eye to eye around here.

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30 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

The consensus between basketball reference projections, 538, and espn bpi has us finishing with 27 wins and 7th in the lottery

That is how I see it as well. Our schedule looks pretty easy. As long is a top 7 we will have the chance to draft one of 

Ayton, Doncic,JJJ, Bamba, Bagley,Young or Porter.  

Looking back, All minus Bamba has been the number one selection at one point in previous Mock Draft. 

I think we will be ok. 

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44 minutes ago, Tank Vogel said:

 

I do not think we will get him if we draft at #7. Hoping we tank and draft higher.  He is the Embiid of this draft and could easily go at #3.  Injury concerns with All Star potential. If he is healthy he ranks right there with Doncic and Ayton.  Before the season he was listed #1 on NBA mock draft boards.

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5 hours ago, ?4thewin said:

The consensus between basketball reference projections, 538, and espn bpi has us finishing with 27 wins and 7th in the lottery

I would be OK with #7 but prefer tanking.  What will irritate me the most is if Brooklyn (Cleveland) picks in front of us which looking at their schedule is very possible if we do not tank.  That would beyond stupid, that would be pure lunacy!!!

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To end with 27 wins we'd have to go 7-11 the rest of the way, I know it's the easiest part of our schedule but that's a tall order for our team right now.  

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9 minutes ago, Murphy13 said:

To end with 27 wins we'd have to go 7-11 the rest of the way, I know it's the easiest part of our schedule but that's a tall order for our team right now.  

Not that tall of an order considering we're 7-12 over our last 19. One less loss with an easier schedule isn't crazy. 

Its pretty good odds we finish with 27 wins and two of the models suggest that 28 wins is slightly more likely than 26. 

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It's certainly possible with the way end-of-season dynamics play out, but I don't think remaining SOS tells the whole story either.  For example, I only count 4 more games against teams with an incentive to lose.  @Sac, @Atl, vs DAL, and vs PHX.  I think we probably win 3 of those games realistically.  The other toss-ups are @ NYK, vs CHA, and vs BKN.  I think we win 1 of those games.  The rest of the games are against playoff teams that likely will beat us even if they sit someone.  Maybe 1 more surprise win there? We could theoretically win all 7 of those games listed previously to make the mark, its possible.  At this point I'm not sure beating all the other lowlifes helps us create a winning culture though.  Now if we beat the other playoff teams then I'm on board..

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2 minutes ago, Murphy13 said:

It's certainly possible with the way end-of-season dynamics play out, but I don't think remaining SOS tells the whole story either.  For example, I only count 4 more games against teams with an incentive to lose.  @Sac, @Atl, vs DAL, and vs PHX.  I think we probably win 3 of those games realistically.  The other toss-ups are @ NYK, vs CHA, and vs BKN.  I think we win 1 of those games.  The rest of the games are against playoff teams that likely will beat us even if they sit someone.  Maybe 1 more surprise win there? We could theoretically win all 7 of those games listed previously to make the mark, its possible.  At this point I'm not sure beating all the other lowlifes helps us create a winning culture though.  Now if we beat the other playoff teams then I'm on board..

Thats not how you project games. Because you don't always beat teams you should beat 100% of the time and you don't lose to teams you should lose to 100% of the time.  

So tonight basketball reference gives us a 31% chance to beat LA. If you agreed with that projection you'd count that as 0.31 wins.  You do that for every game and add those together and end up with your win total projections.  

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2 hours ago, ?4thewin said:

Thats not how you project games. Because you don't always beat teams you should beat 100% of the time and you don't lose to teams you should lose to 100% of the time.  

So tonight basketball reference gives us a 31% chance to beat LA. If you agreed with that projection you'd count that as 0.31 wins.  You do that for every game and add those together and end up with your win total projections.  

I understand how it works, but its impossible to win 31% of a game so its more realistic to look at it as a whole.  In the end it might work out right but at this stage in the season it isn't helpful.  

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