2018 NBA Draft Thread

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

1 minute ago, Murphy13 said:

I understand how it works, but its impossible to win 31% of a game so its more realistic to look at it as a whole.  In the end it might work out right but at this stage in the season it isn't helpful.  

Right but in your scenario if we're hypothetically heavy underdogs oon every game going forward then we should win 0 games which is also not realistic.  That's why you play the percentages it evens out generally

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Trae Young has 161 turnovers on the season.  The highest number i can find going back at least 16 years.  

[Originalticketholder 133]

3 hours ago, Murphy13 said:

It's certainly possible with the way end-of-season dynamics play out, but I don't think remaining SOS tells the whole story either.  For example, I only count 4 more games against teams with an incentive to lose.  @Sac, @Atl, vs DAL, and vs PHX.  I think we probably win 3 of those games realistically.  The other toss-ups are @ NYK, vs CHA, and vs BKN.  I think we win 1 of those games.  The rest of the games are against playoff teams that likely will beat us even if they sit someone.  Maybe 1 more surprise win there? We could theoretically win all 7 of those games listed previously to make the mark, its possible.  At this point I'm not sure beating all the other lowlifes helps us create a winning culture though.  Now if we beat the other playoff teams then I'm on board..

Four games left on West Coast swing and, if fortunate, will lose all four, then four straight home games against the Bucks, the Celts, the Raptors and 76'ers could equal 4 more losses or 8 in a row very easily (if we lose to Lakers tonight and Kings in 2 nights this is very possible).  If that occurs then 7 staight games against lottery teams--need to and better lose to Brooklyn (March 28th here) for sure, then starting April 1st at Atl. next night at NY, 4/4 Dallas here, and 4/6 Charlotte here.  If we lose the night eight then my scenario has us at 22 wins maximum on 4/1 and absolute FULL tank mode starts on that date to get a top 3 pick.  27 wins seems a bit optimistic!

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

1 minute ago, Originalticketholder said:

Four games left on West Coast swing and, if fortunate, will lose all four, then four straight home games against the Bucks, the Celts, the Raptors and 76'ers could equal 4 more losses or 8 in a row very easily (if we lose to Lakers tonight and Kings in 2 nights this is very possible).  If that occurs then 7 staight games against lottery teams--need to and better lose to Brooklyn (March 28th here) for sure, then starting April 1st at Atl. next night at NY, 4/4 Dallas here, and 4/6 Charlotte here.  If we lose the night eight then my scenario has us at 22 wins maximum on 4/1 and absolute FULL tank mode starts on that date to get a top 3 pick.  27 wins seems a bit optimistic!

Algorithms are neither optimistic nor pessimistic.  

[A Better DJ & Photographer 455]

1 hour ago, ?4thewin said:

Trae Young has 161 turnovers on the season.  The highest number i can find going back at least 16 years.  

That may be true but you also have to consider the rest of his team sucks pretty bad. That forces him to take higher risk shots and get some turn overs on plays that should have been buckets.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Just now, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

That may be true but you also have to consider the rest of his team sucks pretty bad. That forces him to take higher risk shots and get some turn overs on plays that should have been buckets.

So no other team has been bad for the last 16 years?

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

 Ben Simmons had a pretty bad team and 31% fewer turnovers in 2 more games.  31%!

[Originalticketholder 133]

29 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

Algorithms are neither optimistic nor pessimistic.  

Absolutley true because math is based on logic.  So today 27 wins would be the logical right answer mathematically.  But each game potentially changes that algorithm.  If it projects a win and we lose, at some point,  you have to revalue.  It also does not factor in whether we may have a strategy to tank.  Even I do not know that but I do not rule it out and think it is more possible with each loss.  We sure are not going to advertise it (i.e $600,000 fine for Cuban).  Time will tell but it is interesting to watch!

[A Better DJ & Photographer 455]

18 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

So no other team has been bad for the last 16 years?

I'm sure there have lots of bad teams. I'm just saying from the few games I've watched Trae play in he basically is the only one on the team that plays halfway decent and has to shoulder more load than he should. Imagine how many TOs somebody would have if 40% of their passes went to Biz? LOL

[Originalticketholder 133]

15 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

So no other team has been bad for the last 16 years?

I like Trae Young but he has some things to work on---T/O being one of them, proving he can play  NBA defense another  What I like is he is a good shooter and he is aggressive to a fault.  While he has 5.2 T/O per game he also has 8.9 assists per game.  Simmons in college had 3.4 T/O per game on 4.8 assists per game.   I do not think it is a bad team that is causing Young's T/O's but I think Young is probably trying to be too fancy, thread the needle, trying to make a play when it is not there when he should not do that  I think it is easier to fix that than teach someone had to have higher assists IMHO.

[ML6 520]

Looking forward to watching MPJ after work today.  Coach estimated ~20-25 minutes but could play more.  Doesn't seem like there's any sort of formal minutes restriction.

[magicdoc1 261]

10 hours ago, ?4thewin said:

Trae Young has 161 turnovers on the season.  The highest number i can find going back at least 16 years.  

He plays very erratic. That is not a good thing but his Assist to T/O ratio is not bad at all. He is still developing and likely will get better in that department. 

He is not afraid to make mistakes which is really good.