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?4thewin

2017-2018 Official Season Discussion Thread

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11 hours ago, JJZFL said:

So, this has been a good discussion.  Lots of good, well thought out and well written posts.  And none of the juvenile personal attacks that were unfortunately common a few years ago, and have no place here.

I disagree on this issue with Magicman28 but I respect his opinion and the logical way that he presents it.

We all want to put the odds in the Magic's favor.  But we evidently disagree about how to do it.  Of course, being worse means a better chance at a high draft pick, although there is enough uncertainty so that even the worst team in the league has a less than 50% chance of getting the first pick.  However, that is only looking at one side of the picture.  That's the benefit of being bad.  The negative side of being a bad team is, well, you're a bad team. You've dug yourself a deeper hole.  Now getting a pretty good rookie, like say a Wiggins, might not be enough to turn things around.  So I don't believe that "tanking", which to me means intentionally building a losing roster, puts the overall odds of getting better in your favor even though it does increase the odds of getting a high draft pick.  The positives aren't worth the negatives.

Contrast that approach with what a number of other posters have described in recent posts.  Keep the team competitive, put out the best roster you can, find a draft pick or two that people overlook, make a smart trade or two, and you may be right back at the top without running the risk of creating a horror show.

Yup. Good to disagree without insults.

One more thing I like about high draft picks, you can trade them for players who might be able to help now.

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19 hours ago, Miller4Prez66 said:


No, the reason we are in the situation we're in now is because of Rob Hennigan's moronic attempt to rebuild this team after trading Dwight. We stripped the roster of talent in an attempt to go young and lose a lot. Which created the culture of youth and losing we're stuck with today. At the time of the Dwight trade, this city and franchise was hungry for championships since we were not far off from playing in the NBA Finals and b2b Eastern Conference Finals. Which is fair to a point, but now 6 years later we are as far off from a championship as ever. Straight up tanking doesn't win you championships. All the teams contending for the title this year didn't tank to get where they are, this idea that you need to strip your roster down and just suck until your savior comes is just crazy because you're gambling your franchise on getting lucky on a 19/20 year old. Plus, even if your team sucks enough doesn't guarantee you the pick to get any potential star players. The only pro-tanking argument I see much of these days is the 76ers, which kind of makes me laugh since right now Philly is a fringe 8th seed who does have a lot of young talent but these talented youngsters have a lot of injuries and question marks on them going forward. The 76ers HAVE to win a championship with this core to be worth putting their fans through some of the worst basketball in NBA history to get a chance to land them. 

Like I said,  this season is a lost cause already and the draft has good potential so I'm fine with just tanking to finish. Which Vogel won't do, we'll have to rely on our own terrible play. But going forward, please put an end to this BS. 

Yeah, we should have signed veterans and become a 30-35 win team after the Howard fiasco, then we wouldn't be in this position (insert rolling my eyes emoji)

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17 hours ago, Magicman28 said:

Big difference between trying to tank and just sucking. You try to tank hard enough you're increasing your odds to draft a player, which the graph I presented shows you're more than likely, has more of a impact.

This will never be acknowledged by the anti-tankers. They will still call it tanking, even though we clearly won way too many games (including several meaningless games which cost us draft position in multiple drafts) to reap any benefit from it.

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9 minutes ago, magicblue said:

This will never be acknowledged by the anti-tankers. They will still call it tanking, even though we clearly won way too many games (including several meaningless games which cost us draft position in multiple drafts) to reap any benefit from it.

Looking back on it, late season wins never really had an impact on our draft position

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19 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

Looking back on it, late season wins never really had an impact on our draft position

True but reading back through the posts this morning something occurred to me that I forgot about , we didn't quite tank for 3 years. Vaughn was let go slightly below 2 3/4 of the season. Borrego took over and vowed to win those moral victories at the end of the season.  Now I like Mario but those wins may have cost us Porzingis.

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27 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

True but reading back through the posts this morning something occurred to me that I forgot about , we didn't quite tank for 3 years. Vaughn was let go slightly below 2 3/4 of the season. Borrego took over and vowed to win those moral victories at the end of the season.  Now I like Mario but those wins may have cost us Porzingis.

The difference between us and the Lakers was 4 wins.  We would have needed to lose the final 19 games to catch them.  Instead we went 5-14 to finish the season. Not a big deal.  

I mean you go back and look at those wins and we were starting Payton - oladipo - Harris - vucevic -dedmon and winning because a guy would go off each game.  

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6 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

The difference between us and the Lakers was 4 wins.  We would have needed to lose the final 19 games to catch them.  Instead we went 5-14 to finish the season. Not a big deal.  

I mean you go back and look at those wins and we were starting Payton - oladipo - Harris - vucevic -dedmon and winning because a guy would go off each game.  

Ugh. Can't believe we let Dipo go man. I knew he was gonna be good. 

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I mean there's issues like winning that game in Detroit last year that gave us marginally worse lotto odds but in practice nothing really changed unless you thought we would take fox over Isaac which i don't.  

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1 minute ago, ?4thewin said:

I mean there's issues like winning that game in Detroit last year that gave us marginally worse lotto odds but in practice nothing really changed unless you thought we would take fox over Isaac which i don't.  

Do you think we would've taken Isaac no matter where we're picking?

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3 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

Do you think we would've taken Isaac no matter where we're picking?

I’ll chime in. I think Isaac was 5th on our big board behind Jackson, Tatum, Fultz and Ball (in no particular order)

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1 hour ago, ?4thewin said:

Looking back on it, late season wins never really had an impact on our draft position

I'm pretty sure a late season win (like last game or second to last game of the season) cost us draft position for Porzingis

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4 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

Do you think we would've taken Isaac no matter where we're picking?

I've wondered if "some teams liked Isaac at 1" was really "Hammond and Weltman liked Isaac at 1".

But in practice i guess if you consider that tatum was killing it in workouts they don't pick Isaac over Tatum or fultz.  I think we probably take Isaac as wary as 4th. Maybe 3rd if we're more of a "body of work" team vs a "workout" team which we might be considering we didn't workout Isaac.  

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