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2017-2018 Official Season Discussion Thread

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Justin Jaudon    158
1 minute ago, Magicman28 said:

Not in this draft. This is the draft where top 5, top 3 if you can, is important imo.

Sure, we can think that now. But people say that every year, to an extent. This past year was a crazy deep draft for star potential, everyone saying that you could get a potential star in the top 8 or 9. Who's the best rookie of this class so far? Donovan Mitchell, pick #13, who no one thought would be this good. 2009 was the year of Blake Griffin and then no one. Except Steph turned out to be Steph. No one saw that coming. 2010 was the John Wall Sweepstakes year. Except PG was picked 10th. 2012 was AD and no other stars, remember? except Beal and Drummond are great. There weren't supposed to be any stars in 2013. Oladipo, McCollum, and Giannis came out of nowhere.

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Mike1989    54
47 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

No you don't have to. I just don't have a ton of confidence with this organization so I rather they play the odds.

Beginning of the year I wanted nothing to do with the draft in general. When the deadline came I was hoping we could pull off a deal that helps us next year. We didn't. Now we're going to be closing the season out with wins here, losses there and a meh draft pick.

Maybe I'm wrong and we continue to suck hard. I dunno but odds say that with an healthy AG and Isaac, and an more consistent Mario, minus EP, we have the potential to finish with more wins that shoots us out of a high draft pick.

How do we improve? Well you might say trades in the off season. That's going to be really difficult and we don't really have a good enough selling point to acquire talented vets, not Simmons, but real difference makers in FA. It's a weak FA class anyways. Draft is your best bet. Tank.

Now your GS argument. This is time comes in. This draft? Not seeing the next steph there. And let's be honest, without Steph, GS wouldn't be GS. Anywho, I don't see the talent there 7-10. Maybe Porter if he slips because of his back but, his back...

 

I'm not discrediting tanking, but you do have to assume that the front office don't try to do something different and think outside of the box.

Problem is year is that the current top five are pretty fluid, and you can even add Bamba and Jackson to the equation to make it seven. Do I trust this team to draft someone like Trae Young over Jaren Jackson? 

I don't. Jackson is a Isaac type pick and our front office proved last year they valued his length and defensive potential over any offensive short comings when compared to players like Markkanen and Smith. So as much as I'd like to see us draft Trae, I think there's a good chance we take Jackson because of that length and defensive ability/potential.

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Magicman28    251
4 minutes ago, Justin Jaudon said:

Unless Bridges or Knox end up the next PG/McCollum/DeRozan/Hayward/Kemba/Drummond/Steph/Barnes. For the record, if we get th 8th pick we're just cursed... or maybe eight is due, right?

Not in this draft. This is the draft where top 5, top 3 if you can, is important imo.

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Mike1989    54
11 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

Not in this draft. This is the draft where top 5, top 3 if you can, is important imo.

I think an argument can be made for a top seven: Trae, Sonic, Bagley, Porter, Jackson, Bamba, and Ayton. 

Preferably top 3, but anywhere up to 7 should get you a prospect that can be a piece to help a rebuild. Some are better than others, and my preference (Trae) will likely need to see us pick top three, but I guess we could do worse than end up with Jackson or Bamba or even Porter if we pick 6 or 7.

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Magicman28    251
20 minutes ago, Justin Jaudon said:

Sure, we can think that now. But people say that every year, to an extent. This past year was a crazy deep draft for star potential, everyone saying that you could get a potential star in the top 8 or 9. Who's the best rookie of this class so far? Donovan Mitchell, pick #13, who no one thought would be this good. 2009 was the year of Blake Griffin and then no one. Except Steph turned out to be Steph. No one saw that coming. 2010 was the John Wall Sweepstakes year. Except PG was picked 10th. 2012 was AD and no other stars, remember? except Beal and Drummond are great. There weren't supposed to be any stars in 2013. Oladipo, McCollum, and Giannis came out of nowhere.

This draft though? 

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Magicman28    251
24 minutes ago, Mike1989 said:

I think an argument can be made for a top seven: Trae, Sonic, Bagley, Porter, Jackson, Bamba, and Ayton. 

Preferably top 3, but anywhere up to 7 should get you a prospect that can be a piece to help a rebuild. Some are better than others, and my preference (Trae) will likely need to see us pick top three, but I guess we could do worse than end up with Jackson or Bamba or even Porter if we pick 6 or 7.

What scares me about this draft is there's no clear cut number 1. Teams are going to do a lot more homework. Makes finding that stud at the low end less likely imo.

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Soul Bro    563

Considering our management’s history of finding diamonds in the rough outside of the top pick, I’m excited to see who we draft this summer.

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Justin Jaudon    158
4 minutes ago, Magicman28 said:

This draft though? 

You're asking me to pick who I think will come out of nowhere as a great player after #6 in this draft? That kinda goes against everything I'm talking about, but sure, I can see some candidates:

Sexton

Miles Bridges

Mikal Bridges

Obviously I wouldn't assume any one of these guys will be stars. But these three would be my picks of guys to come out of the 7-12 picks as stars. Of course, maybe someone completely different will do it. But it's almost certain someone will.

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JJZFL    107
5 hours ago, Magicman28 said:

Your putting words in my mouth. I never said anything about tanking=ships. In fact I don't think you can make a 100% accurate argument that one is better than other. 

I said tanking means better odds at a high pick which means better odds at a good player.

I like those odds better than finding the next Gianni on the lower end of the draft.

So, this has been a good discussion.  Lots of good, well thought out and well written posts.  And none of the juvenile personal attacks that were unfortunately common a few years ago, and have no place here.

I disagree on this issue with Magicman28 but I respect his opinion and the logical way that he presents it.

We all want to put the odds in the Magic's favor.  But we evidently disagree about how to do it.  Of course, being worse means a better chance at a high draft pick, although there is enough uncertainty so that even the worst team in the league has a less than 50% chance of getting the first pick.  However, that is only looking at one side of the picture.  That's the benefit of being bad.  The negative side of being a bad team is, well, you're a bad team. You've dug yourself a deeper hole.  Now getting a pretty good rookie, like say a Wiggins, might not be enough to turn things around.  So I don't believe that "tanking", which to me means intentionally building a losing roster, puts the overall odds of getting better in your favor even though it does increase the odds of getting a high draft pick.  The positives aren't worth the negatives.

Contrast that approach with what a number of other posters have described in recent posts.  Keep the team competitive, put out the best roster you can, find a draft pick or two that people overlook, make a smart trade or two, and you may be right back at the top without running the risk of creating a horror show.

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1 hour ago, JJZFL said:

So, this has been a good discussion.  Lots of good, well thought and well written posts.  And none of the juvenile personal attacks that were unfortunately common a few years ago, and have no place here.

I disagree on this issue with Magicman28 but I respect his opinion and the logical way that he presents it.

We all want to put the odds in the Magic's favor.  But we evidently disagree about how to do it.  Of course, being worse means a better chance at a high draft pick, although there is enough uncertainty so that even the worst team in the league has a less than 50% chance of getting the first pick.  However, that is only looking at one side of the picture.  That's the benefit of being bad.  The negative side of being a bad team is, well, you're a bad team. You've dug yourself a deeper hole.  Now getting a pretty good rookie, like say a Wiggins, might not be enough to turn things around.  So I don't believe that "tanking", which to me means intentionally building a losing roster, puts the overall odds of getting better in your favor even though it does increase the odds of getting a high draft pick.  The positives aren't worth the negatives.

Contrast that approach with what a number of other posters have described in recent posts.  Keep the team competitive, put out the best roster you can, find a draft pick or two that people overlook, make a smart trade or two, and you may be right back at the top without running the risk of creating a horror show.

I concur about this being good discussion with great posts and logical arguments on both sides.  The reason I agree with Magicman28 is the logical way he presents it with respect to this year's class.  I recollect most Magic predictions, before the year started, for wins this year being in the 33-37 range + or - 2 on each side.  Obviously that will be hard to do now.  But I think the 33-37 win range reflects the talent level this team has if we did not have the injuries to starters, Ross and Vuc and recently AG and to the rookie Isaac.  We should not be in this position but we are so this is a unique year to make it work in our favor and that opportunity to go after that top 3 pick.  May be the last year we CAN do this.   As Magicman28 says, the better the pick the more likely you will get it right!  I think one thing everyone would agree on is we need shooters and a point guard.  That points to Doncic (seems most experts have him #1) who can play 1 or 2 and can shoot AND Trae Young (he can shoot) as a 1.  Either one solves shooting amd PG issue.  In the new rules top 3 lottery teams each get 14% chance at #1 pick.  New rules do not favor the worse teams as much as they did in the past but 14% is better than 12% or 11% or 10%, etc. so the goal is get in the top 3.  8 teams from both conferences vying for the worst record so figure out a way to be in the top 3 this year.  I would not tank every year but I sure would this year.  With the right pick this year (along with getting Keita Bates Diop thru trading on draft day--my personal gamble because he can shoot too=2 shooters) I do not think we will ever visit this topic again!!

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4 hours ago, Mike1989 said:

I think an argument can be made for a top seven: Trae, Sonic, Bagley, Porter, Jackson, Bamba, and Ayton. 

Preferably top 3, but anywhere up to 7 should get you a prospect that can be a piece to help a rebuild. Some are better than others, and my preference (Trae) will likely need to see us pick top three, but I guess we could do worse than end up with Jackson or Bamba or even Porter if we pick 6 or 7.

Doncic (#1 or #2 pick) and Trae=plug in as starting PG immediately (Wow! a PG who can shoot)

Ayton and Bamba (with his 7'9" wingspan)=immediate starter but probably have to trade Vuc (A real center)

Bagley, Porter, and Jackson (in that order)=duplicates of what we have so it is a little harder--Bagley probably better than what we have so=starter and Porter before injuries was projected as the best player in the class so probably=starter too,  Jarren Jackson=you cannot teach height!! raw with great potential

But I agree all can help us be better and I would take any of these,  just some help us more mmediate than others

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Magicman28    251
14 hours ago, Justin Jaudon said:

You're asking me to pick who I think will come out of nowhere as a great player after #6 in this draft? That kinda goes against everything I'm talking about, but sure, I can see some candidates:

Sexton

Miles Bridges

Mikal Bridges

Obviously I wouldn't assume any one of these guys will be stars. But these three would be my picks of guys to come out of the 7-12 picks as stars. Of course, maybe someone completely different will do it. But it's almost certain someone will.

I think Porter slides with the back issue.

If we end up picking from the Poter Bridges and Bridges group, I think I'll lose my ****.

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