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Murphy13

IRMA

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Payton4thewin    1,157

Not "directly" but that projection shows Hati will get hit. If the first projection happens, and it does go right up our ass, Hait's mountains, Cuba and the Bahamas will get the **** end and once it hits us, it'll be a category 2. Maybe 3. Even not directly hitting Hati, those mountains will still de intensify it.

 

If the second happens, the east coast will get hit but the Bahamas will slow it down, some, but it'll still cause some damage.

 

I just hope it doesn't go the route Hurricane Andrew did. That's the route that would have me like "oh ****".

 

The nhc disagrees with your assessment

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Payton4thewin    1,157

My assessment was based on that model you posted.

 

What do they disagree on?

 

Its supposed to hit south Florida and/or the keys at somewhere between a high 4 to what would be a 6 if that existed.

 

After that its hard to say what will happen. The NHC doesn't project further.

There's a debate right now on r/tropicalweather whether going over south Florida up through Orlando will result in a decrease in intensity to a low 3 or if the size of the storm plus the geography being mostly flat wetlands will cause minimal weakening.

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Payton4thewin    1,157

My assessment was based on that model you posted.

 

What do they disagree on?

 

 

Edit: They themselves show it weakening after it hits the islands according to their projected path.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/030008.shtml?tswind120#contents

 

No. That's a probability of wind speed over the next 5 days. At 8pm Saturday the storm will be in the red or Orange area still.

 

If you look at the forecast discussion they have it as a 4 still 120 hours out after passing Cuba. And that's a place with favorable waters where it could restrengthen right before hitting Florida.

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Magicman28    163

Its supposed to hit south Florida and/or the keys at somewhere between a high 4 to what would be a 6 if that existed.

 

After that its hard to say what will happen. The NHC doesn't project further.

There's a debate right now on r/tropicalweather whether going over south Florida up through Orlando will result in a decrease in intensity to a low 3 or if the size of the storm plus the geography being mostly flat wetlands will cause minimal weakening.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/030008.shtml?tswind120#contents

 

How much you wanna bet it won't be a 5? Hurricanes is what we Florida Surfers live for. We dissect the crap out of them because it's the best surf we'll potentially see for the year.

 

No way it hits PR, Dominican Republic, Hati, Cuba, and the Bahamas and still be at a 5. If it follows Andrew's path, yeah, we'll see a high 5 but not if it goes accordingly to what above image shows.

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Payton4thewin    1,157

I should also point out they still have no idea where its going to turn. It could still go out to sea. It could run either coast. It's just going to be a huge ****ty storm no matter what though

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Magicman28    163

No. That's a probability of wind speed over the next 5 days. At 8pm Saturday the storm will be in the red or Orange area still.

 

If you look at the forecast discussion they have it as a 4 still 120 hours out after passing Cuba. And that's a place with favorable waters where it could restrengthen right before hitting Florida.

 

South Florida will see a 4. Not central.

 

I guess I should've stated that when I was referring to what "we" will see.

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Murphy13    140

It's too early to say what we will or won't be getting. The hurricane force winds have a 120 mile wide diameter in this storm, its huge and getting bigger. Charley's hurricane diameter was half that size per the NHC. Irma's tropical storm force diameter is currently 3x wider than Charley's was.

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Payton4thewin    1,157

The latest Euro model has it bouncing off Cuba and a track that's basically connecting ft Meyers and Jacksonville.

 

Max wind speed when approaching Ft Meyers 154.9 mph http://i.imgur.com/TC0AKoM.jpg

 

Max wind speed in the Orlando area is somewhere between 116-125 http://i.imgur.com/Ie4pXc8.jpg http://i.imgur.com/8wEhMhD.jpg

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Payton4thewin    1,157

It's too early to say what we will or won't be getting. The hurricane force winds have a 120 mile wide diameter in this storm, its huge and getting bigger. Charley's hurricane diameter was half that size per the NHC. Irma's tropical storm force diameter is currently 3x wider than Charley's was.

 

yup. the error for these models this far out is 100+ miles. that could make it do anything.

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Magicman28    163

The latest Euro model has it bouncing off Cuba and a track that's basically connecting ft Meyers and Jacksonville.

 

Max wind speed when approaching Ft Meyers 154.9 mph http://i.imgur.com/TC0AKoM.jpg

 

Max wind speed in the Orlando area is somewhere between 116-125 http://i.imgur.com/Ie4pXc8.jpg http://i.imgur.com/8wEhMhD.jpg

 

 

Yeah that particular model doesn't look promising.

 

I am growing a little concern about it's strength but I'm still thinking the islands will weaken it. It's more like a big tornado than a hurricane.

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ML6    138

It's more like a big tornado than a hurricane.

 

Uh a tornado the size of Ohio sounds pretty bad, doesn't it?

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