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Murphy13

IRMA

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Murphy13    139

It's still early, the models have trended Irma closer to the east coast of FL though. After the flop that was Matthew last year, do you think there will be some complacency on the part of C. Floridians? Irma appears as though she will be at least as strong as Matthew was.

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Payton4thewin    1,063

I don't think Matthew will make Floridians complacent. I think not having a really devastating hurricane for 25 years makes us complacent.

 

I have no idea what I'm going to do if it hits us directly. I have 15 gallons of water and food for a week but they're saying its going to be a 5 and you can't really ride those out.

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Murphy13    139

I drove down to take care of my Mom's place for Matthew, and I can tell you she became complacent because Matthew amounted to just a lengthy seabreeze front for east seminole. The likelihood of it hitting anywhere is remote, but I think Orlando/ECF is officially in the non-zero chance of getting hit.

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Payton4thewin    1,063

I drove down to take care of my Mom's place for Matthew, and I can tell you she became complacent because Matthew amounted to just a lengthy seabreeze front for east seminole. The likelihood of it hitting anywhere is remote, but I think Orlando/ECF is officially in the non-zero chance of getting hit.

 

The newest models make it seem like its going to hit around Boca and then make a diagonal bisection of Florida through, like, citrus county. Thats just assuming a smooth turn rather than something sharp.

 

And you're probably right. My mother in law lives in port orange about a half mile from the river and i managed to convince her during Matthew that storm surge and wind could potentially kill her and she needed to come stay with us.

 

Wife calls her today about how she should probably start preparing for this instead of waiting until the last minute to get flashlights and water and stuff like last time. Her response? Oh Payton4thewin is just exaggerating like last time.

 

And i might be. It's 5 days out. It could just keep pushing west like that one hurricane two years ago that never hit land. But if we get a stable track Tuesday or Wednesday supplies are going to fly off the shelves and there might not be gas for your evacuation if you wait this out

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Payton4thewin    1,063

They don't typically build up as they're crossing the islands. They usually lose intensity.

 

Don't agree with this projection.

 

They don't usually. But the water there is 87+ degrees and there's no wind shear. It's perfect conditions.

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Magicman28    134

They don't usually. But the water there is 87+ degrees and there's no wind shear. It's perfect conditions.

 

 

Yeah but Hati's mountains are very effective at weakening Hurricanes despite the conditions. Sucks for Hati and other islands but good for us.

 

Man, wish I still had my shortboard.

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Payton4thewin    1,063

Yeah but Hati's mountains are very effective at weakening Hurricanes despite the conditions. Sucks for Hati and other islands but good for us.

 

Man, wish I still had my shortboard.

 

It's not supposed to hit Haiti directly

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Magicman28    134

It's not supposed to hit Haiti directly

 

 

Not "directly" but that projection shows Hati will get hit. If the first projection happens, and it does go right up our ass, Hait's mountains, Cuba and the Bahamas will get the **** end and once it hits us, it'll be a category 2. Maybe 3. Even not directly hitting Hati, those mountains will still de intensify it.

 

If the second happens, the east coast will get hit but the Bahamas will slow it down, some, but it'll still cause some damage.

 

I just hope it doesn't go the route Hurricane Andrew did. That's the route that would have me like "oh ****".

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