2017 Official Offseason Thread

[CTMagicUK 1,476]

so I'd bet we hit 36-37 wins. his numbers were off by an average of 4.27 wins last year and it's not like outliers pushed it down. 16 teams' projections were off by 4+ wins. Only 1 was hit exactly (golden state). only 1 was off by 1 win (OKC). Almost all of the projections were under projected.

 

or maybe we're going to be 35 wins because the mode was 3.

The median number was 4.

 

no team was misprojected by more than 10 wins (Detroit) so it's very likely our minimum wins are going to be greater than 22 and our maximum is 42.

 

All this does assume that Pelton didn't update his model based on last season's inaccuracy.

 

I only scanned the article so if he mentioned it being the same model then fair enough.

 

Personally I do still think 37 wins is more reasonable but maybe that's the rose tinted glasses.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

All this does assume that Pelton didn't update his model based on last season's inaccuracy.

 

I only scanned the article so if he mentioned it being the same model then fair enough.

 

Personally I do still think 37 wins is more reasonable but maybe that's the rose tinted glasses.

 

its RPM based and historically that has under projected most teams wins, over-projects the bad teams and then you have one random team who just does much worse than expected. But the total wins pretty much add up.

 

based on history, I think Atlanta and Chicago are probably over-projected by about 15 total wins combined. you probably have 3 or so wins to take from Miami (as pelton notes in his story about RPM overvaluing them). Phoenix is probably overprojected. New Orleans is probably over-projected. The clippers are probably over-projected.

 

Golden state, San Antonio, Boston, Cleveland are probably way under projected.

[Tank Vogel 191]

It projected our defense to get worse because of Speights who had a better dRPM last year than Green, Rudez , and even Gordon. Not to mention Simmons being 8th best for SG and Mack almost 2 points better than Augustin.

 

My finger was too tired from clicking to see how low Hezonja ended up but no way we dont improve there as well.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

It projected our defense to get worse because of Speights who had a better dRPM last year than Green, Rudez , and even Gordon. Not to mention Simmons being 8th best for SG and Mack almost 2 points better than Augustin.

 

My finger was too tired from clicking to see how low Hezonja ended up but no way we dont improve there as well.

 

depends on how much afflalo plays. he could be just as bad as Mario on defense.

 

A lot of this season (and our projections) depend on how good Simmons is and what type of minutes he grabs as backup.

 

if he's as good as some people here think, he'll take most of the backup 2/3 minutes and we effectively can run a rotation that's basically payton-ross-Fournier-Gordon-vucevic mack-simmons-isaac-biyombo. That's a lot of guys who project as good defenders.

[jmmagicfan 299]

depends on how much afflalo plays. he could be just as bad as Mario on defense.

 

A lot of this season (and our projections) depend on how good Simmons is and what type of minutes he grabs as backup.

 

if he's as good as some people here think, he'll take most of the backup 2/3 minutes and we effectively can run a rotation that's basically payton-ross-Fournier-Gordon-vucevic mack-simmons-isaac-biyombo. That's a lot of guys who project as good defenders.

I seem to recall that Afflalo is actually a pretty decent defender, and he has apparently been working to get into top shape coming into this season 10-15 pounds lighter, so I'm not sure he isn't a positive versus last year as well. I think he is at least as good on the defensive end as Meeks was.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

I seem to recall that Afflalo is actually a pretty decent defender, and he has apparently been working to get into top shape coming into this season 10-15 pounds lighter, so I'm not sure he isn't a positive versus last year as well. I think he is at least as good on the defensive end as Meeks was.

 

yeah, but you gotta assume afflalo will be as bad as last year and the drop is due to age.

 

but he will probably be as good as meeks.

[fan for too long 2 530]

yeah, but you gotta assume afflalo will be as bad as last year and the drop is due to age.

 

but he will probably be as good as meeks.

He's gotta be better than Meeks!

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

He's gotta be better than Meeks!

 

he'll be better than meeks because he'll actually play. their defense was comparable last year and the year before but 14-15 Afflalo was good.

[Magicman28 295]

yeah, but you gotta assume afflalo will be as bad as last year and the drop is due to age.

 

but he will probably be as good as meeks.

 

 

I'm actually going to go in the other direction and say he's better this year. Away from that drama, better conditioned, and back where he loves to be.

[Soul Bro 1,419]

I just want EP, AG or JI to pop and become a star.

[fan for too long 2 530]

I just want EP, AG or JI to pop and become a star.

I think Isaac has biggest chance.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

I just want EP, AG or JI to pop and become a star.

 

I don't think you're alone