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Magic at Heat

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How? We're still 4th worst record in the league, just like we were at the start of the day. I'll take a win over Miami any time

 

Yeah. We're not going to lose out. Beating Miami is preferable

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How? We're still 4th worst record in the league, just like we were at the start of the day. I'll take a win over Miami any time

 

One more win may be all it takes for an extra ping pong ball to fall the Lakers way since theyre right behind us in the win/loss department. We really need to be worse than the Lakers and the Lakers need to drop to 6th or 7th on lotto night which requires a win streak by the Lakers.

 

I could imagine us at 4 and the Lakers at 3 in the pre-lotto. The Lakers win and get #1 (instead of us) and then keep their pick in 2019 because of this (which would have been ours) and leave us with two useless 2nd rounders. Then the Lakers win the lotto with that pick (particularly if a Shaq/Lebron talent were available). We could have had two overall #1's in that situation and been a championship caliber club for many years and instead we get another Mario at 4 or 5 and flounder for another decade. How much is that Heat win really worth? Sticking your chest out right now about beating Miami is terribly short sided particularly in the face of an empty arena and the worst record in the last 5 years. We dont need wins right now and this year is double jeopardy with that Lakers pick.

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why pin ALL of your hopes on a 19 year old kid who isn't fully mature, hasn't physically developed, and is still growing mentally? I mean scientifically speaking a 19 year old's brain is not fully developed in terms of mental faculties and capabilities. It's a huge risk. We need to start building a winning culture and attitude. We have a POOR culture as we're right behind Brooklyn in terms of point differential i.e. getting blown out on a nightly basis. And it's not like there's a clear shaq or tim duncan in this draft either.

 

hopefully we build on this win into the break.

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why pin ALL of your hopes on a 19 year old kid who isn't fully mature, hasn't physically developed, and is still growing mentally? I mean scientifically speaking a 19 year old's brain is not fully developed in terms of mental faculties and capabilities. It's a huge risk. We need to start building a winning culture and attitude. We have a POOR culture as we're right behind Brooklyn in terms of point differential i.e. getting blown out on a nightly basis. And it's not like there's a clear shaq or tim duncan in this draft either.

 

teams don't win without talent. it's not 1999 anymore the base level talent and coaching got a lot better. The best way to get talent is either draft a player or trade that high draft pick for a better player.

 

You're describing the exact gameplan of the post Iverson 6ers. Dump Iverson and Webber for high character hustle players around Iguodala. Win 40, 41, 27, 41, 35 (the strike year equivalent of 43 wins).

 

You have to go back to 2005 with detroit to find a team in the finals that didn't draft their star.

 

now to get a star you can technically get one from any area of the draft. However, the chances of drafting a star is significantly higher at picks 1-3 than picks 4-10.

 

•The first overall pick has historically had a very high floor. Almost 60% of first overall picks become All-Stars, and almost 25% become All-NBA First Teamers.

 

 

•The mid-lottery range (picks 4-10) is unlikely (<25%) to produce an All-Star, and has a very low chance of producing an All-NBA First Teamer.

 

 

•The late lottery (11-14) does not give teams a large advantage over picking in the mid to late first (15-30) in regards to picking All-Stars or All-NBA Players. It does give teams a larger chance of getting a rotation player (~50% vs ~40%).

 

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/

 

 

 

so to win basketball games you ultimately need a star. to get a star you need to draft high. to draft high you need to lose.

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