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2016 Off-Season Thread

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I'm supposed to feel better about the kid because he couldn't get into a major program in college? Because the team is bad? Damian Lillard and Steph Curry went to mid-majors, and were brought into bad teams (less so for Lillard, but they were still far from a playoff team), and they played great right away. And a significant role on a terrible team, especially with zero pressure of being replaced, usually means inflated numbers, not terrible ones (see Ish Smith for the 76ers, or Shabazz Muhammed for the T-Wolves in 2014-15).

 

Calling Payton a terrible starter to this point isn't hyperbole, it's painfully accurate. He's been a bottom 3-5 starting PG in the league, unarguably. That means he's been terrible. Rookie year, that's acceptable. Not year two at 22 years old. After that point, you're looking for a miracle turnaround or a new player. But the fact that he would need a miracle turnaround to be a mid-level NBA starter means he's been terrible to this point. But you keep making excuses, even if they don't make sense. Skiles was successful with every other young PG he coached. Kirk Hinrich and Brandon Jennings both played very well under Skiles, early in their careers (Hinrich hasn't looked like a starting PG for anyone else). But of course, because Payton sucked hardcore last year, it must be Skiles' fault. Rajon Rondo, the closest analogue for Payton's ceiling in the league today, has put up numbers but has consistently made his teams worse over the last three years as the league has changed, yet Elf's going to be different, because you say so.

 

Payton's game doesn't fit the modern NBA, even if he were particularly good at his game, which he hasn't shown to be. Payton, to be utilized at all, would need to be surrounded by guys who are excellent outside shooters, which this team doesn't have in abundance. Payton has yet to show the internal drive to succeed necessary for any starter in the NBA, especially one with his limitations. These things are indisputable. Yet you will make excuses...

My mouth is stuffed with all the words u put in it. OK your right about everything. Does that make you feel special. Lol

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Skiles and Payton's personalities didn't mesh.

 

 

They are being hyperbolic in the context that payton will be great. You are being hyperbolic with most of the other stuff.

 

 

Payton is an inconsistent player who has shown flashes of being pretty good but instead of improving at a steady rate he's been up and down. If the 18 game stretch where he went for 14 and 6 and we went 11 and 7 happened at the end of the year we'd feel pretty good about him. He didn't so it's appropriate to question what he is.

 

Vogel is a nurturing coach which probably fits Payton better.

 

Either way it is what it is. Payton has this upcoming season to provide some sort of basis for keeping him and not going in another direction. He's set up to succeed as we have better pick and roll defenders that should help him fighting through screens, a coach that has a track record of developing young players, and enough roster versatility that can deal with bumps in the road.

 

Other than the obvious joke about Payton not being top 25 in this rebuild (I'd put him 9 or 10, probably), I haven't said anything that could be considered hyperbolic. Can you argue that Payton has been better than a bottom-5 starting PG in his two years (I said nothing negative about him his rookie year, because, as I said earlier, rookie year is forgiven, always)? If so, please name the five players over the last two years who have started the majority of their games and been worse. Can you argue that a bottom-five player in his role should not be described as terrible, if that bottom-five performance has lasted past their rookie season? Can you argue that Skiles has not had success with the other times he was asked to start young PGs? Can you argue that Payton's style of basketball fits the modern NBA? Can you argue that Payton's style of basketball fits this team which does not have many great shooters to put around him? Can you argue that Payton has shown to be a positive in his internal drive and intensity on the court?

 

If you are going to accuse me of being hyperbolic, please explain.

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I'm willing to give Payton a pass for last year. Young kid, sophomore slump, coach that didn't trust him, health issues. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can turn it around and become a solid starting point guard (I'm biased because he's the jersey I decided to go with for the new generation... better than an Oladipo I suppose)... Really wouldn't be surprised to see him go either direction though. I do know Vogel will do everything in his power to help Elfrid succeed.

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Other than the obvious joke about Payton not being top 25 in this rebuild (I'd put him 9 or 10, probably), I haven't said anything that could be considered hyperbolic. Can you argue that Payton has been better than a bottom-5 starting PG in his two years (I said nothing negative about him his rookie year, because, as I said earlier, rookie year is forgiven, always)? If so, please name the five players over the last two years who have started the majority of their games and been worse. Can you argue that a bottom-five player in his role should not be described as terrible, if that bottom-five performance has lasted past their rookie season? Can you argue that Skiles has not had success with the other times he was asked to start young PGs? Can you argue that Payton's style of basketball fits the modern NBA? Can you argue that Payton's style of basketball fits this team which does not have many great shooters to put around him? Can you argue that Payton has shown to be a positive in his internal drive and intensity on the court?

 

If you are going to accuse me of being hyperbolic, please explain.

 

he hasn't been terrible. just bad.

 

Name the five starting point guards over the last two years who have started the majority of their games and been worse?

 

Mudiay, D'angelo Russell, Derrick Rose 15-16, arguably 14-15 MCW, Raul Neto, 14-15 Rondo, 14-15 trey burke, arguably Jarrett Jack, Isaiah Canaan, 14-15 Langston Galloway, 14-15 Jose Calderon.

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Payton will be an all star in the near future. How's that. Just my opinion.

 

You think Payton will be a very good NBA player. I put no words in your mouth.

 

So is per is .1% below avg. His win pct. Is based on a bad team. His assist % is based on bad shooters around him.

These stats are skewed don't you think?

 

You blame his poor stats on the other players. I put no words in your mouth.

 

Payton can get under people's skin on defense. I think his effort will be there this year on a more consistent level. Without skiles scowl on the sidelines will help.

 

You assume Payton's effort level will rise because Skiles is gone, thereby blaming Skiles for his low effort. I put no words in your mouth.

 

U have to put his 2 years in context and compared to what? For a player that came from a mid major forced into starting on a terrible team, to say he has been terrible is hyperbole. If he was a veteran pg and had the same numbers then yes that's terrible. But he isn't so it's not.

 

You blame his poor play on his college, his team, and his youth. I put no words in your mouth.

 

My mouth is stuffed with all the words u put in it. OK your right about everything. Does that make you feel special. Lol

 

I put no words in your mouth. But it doesn't take someone special to see that I'm right about Payton's performance so far.

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he hasn't been terrible. just bad.

 

Name the five starting point guards over the last two years who have started the majority of their games and been worse?

 

Mudiay, D'angelo Russell, Derrick Rose 15-16, arguably 14-15 MCW, Raul Neto, 14-15 Rondo, 14-15 trey burke, arguably Jarrett Jack, Isaiah Canaan, 14-15 Langston Galloway, 14-15 Jose Calderon.

 

Rookie but yes, Rookie and no, yes, I can see the argument for MCW but I disagree, rookie who played 18 minutes per and still no, no, no, no, has in fact not started a majority of his games and still no, started half a season as a rookie and still just maybe, maybe.

 

So, in 2015-16, we have: Mudiay, Rose, maybe Raul Neto. He was a bottom 5 starting PG in 2015-16.

and in 2014-15: Maybe MCW, Langston Galloway, and Jose Calderon, but I disagree with one. Rondo was absolutely better that year, as was Trey Burke, and Jarrett Jack. Isaiah Canaan only started half his games that year and in those was considerably better than Payton. He was a bottom 5 starting PG his rookie year.

 

Terrible.

 

On further inspection, we will allow D'Angelo Russell, but that doesn't change his bottom-5 status.

Edited by Justin Jaudon

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all I'm saying is we gotta be careful about using absolutes when discussing Payton. There's a long list of point guards who have similar first two seasons and then turn into great players. There's also a long list of players who play like payton and don't end up more than a solid backup for a few years and bounce between teams.

 

He's shown enough to be hopeful. he's shown enough bad things to be concerned.

 

If he turns out great we'll say "Of course, look at all these games where he did something fantastic! How could we doubt him."

 

If he turns out to be a bad player we'll say "Of course, look at all the times he struggled in summer league or was unplayable."

 

There's no way to win this argument right now as there's as much evidence he's TJ Ford or Mike Conley or Deron Williams as there is he's Johnny Flynn

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all I'm saying is we gotta be careful about using absolutes when discussing Payton. There's a long list of point guards who have similar first two seasons and then turn into great players. There's also a long list of players who play like payton and don't end up more than a solid backup for a few years and bounce between teams.

 

He's shown enough to be hopeful. he's shown enough bad things to be concerned.

 

If he turns out great we'll say "Of course, look at all these games where he did something fantastic! How could we doubt him."

 

If he turns out to be a bad player we'll say "Of course, look at all the times he struggled in summer league or was unplayable."

 

There's no way to win this argument right now as there's as much evidence he's TJ Ford or Mike Conley or Deron Williams as there is he's Johnny Flynn

 

I'm not sure there is a long list of players who have played this bad for two seasons and turned into great players. I'm not sure if there are any. I'd actually be encouraged to hear of some, because I put a lot of stock in trends and stuff like that. Decent, mid-level PGs, I guess their may be a couple. The TJ Ford reference made me think, but he was never above an average NBA starter. Conley and Williams both played considerably better in their second seasons than Payton.

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Rookie but yes, Rookie and no, yes, I can see the argument for MCW but I disagree, rookie who played 18 minutes per and still no, no, no, no, has in fact not started a majority of his games and still no, started half a season as a rookie and still just maybe, maybe.

 

So, in 2015-16, we have: Mudiay, Rose, maybe Raul Neto. He was a bottom 5 starting PG in 2015-16.

and in 2014-15: Maybe MCW, Langston Galloway, and Jose Calderon, but I disagree with one. Rondo was absolutely better that year, as was Trey Burke, and Jarrett Jack. Isaiah Canaan only started half his games that year and in those was considerably better than Payton. He was a bottom 5 starting PG his rookie year.

 

Terrible.

 

On further inspection, we will allow D'Angelo Russell, but that doesn't change his bottom-5 status.

 

everyone I mentioned had lower PER, lower win shares, lower win shares per 48 and most had lower BPM except for the ones I said arguably where they were close in some catagories but not all. Everyone also started the majority of their games. Rondo spefically in 14-15 was worse in both advanced and traditional statistics. I mean he even shot less than 40% on FTs.

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I'm not sure there is a long list of players who have played this bad for two seasons and turned into great players. I'm not sure if there are any. I'd actually be encouraged to hear of some, because I put a lot of stock in trends and stuff like that. Decent, mid-level PGs, I guess their may be a couple. The TJ Ford reference made me think, but he was never above an average NBA starter. Conley and Williams both played considerably better in their second seasons than Payton.

 

TJ ford had a PER above 20 one season before he succumbed to injury

 

There's also Brandon Knight, Eric Bledsoe, Mike Conley, kyle lowry if you consider his second year his true first year

 

here's the ones who were bad for one season then got better: Tony Parker, George Hill (bad first, average second), Jason Terry, Jrue Holiday

 

Not comprehensive but I have to go home now.

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