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Kevin Pelton thread

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Well Payton is a terrible shooter and Marcus smart is a sharp shooter with his 37/34/65 line this past year.

 

His preference to smart is skewed by his projections of smart as the number 1 player in last year's draft. The better smart is, the better pelton looks.

 

Soul Bro and I were discussing that....Here is his criterion for the ranking...

 

To project how college and international players will perform in the NBA, I start by translating their performance in 14 core statistics, such as 2-point percentage and rebound percentage, to their NBA equivalents. Then I factor in past seasons, which, given how success for college prospects has carried over in the past, is now weighted more heavily. Finally, I regress the stats toward the average for rookies at the same position, generating a complete projected stat line for each player's rookie season.

 

For a long-term outlook, I project the wins above replacement player the player will average over his first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so that immediate contributions are weighted more heavily. I come to this figure by combining the player's projected rookie win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) with his age (as of the end of the NCAA season). Naturally, the younger the player, the more opportunity for improvement down the road. During their first NBA seasons, younger players display more development than their older counterparts, making age a crucial part of any prospect analysis.

 

This year, the top prospect in my rankings isn't any of the guys you've heard about atop Big Boards. Rather, it's a sophomore: Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart.

 

Here's what he said about Smart...ranked number 1

 

Several factors propelled Smart to the top of the WARP projections. He is young for a sophomore, just 10 days older than Joel Embiid. Smart's projected steal rate is tops for any projected first-round pick, which is important because steal rate has been a strong indicator of NBA success. He is also an excellent rebounder and has been surprisingly good playing against star point guards. Players similar to Smart tend to perform better in the NBA as the professional floor typically is more open, allowing them to create off the dribble.

 

Here's what he said about Payton...ranked number 24

 

Payton filled up the defensive box score, with an excellent rebound rate and above-average steal and block rates. The question is whether he can be efficient on offense. He projects to shoot below-average rates from both inside (43.2 percent) and outside (29.5 percent) the arc, and only Saric has a higher projected turnover percentage.

 

He also said Aaron Gordon has STAR POWER...ranked number 14

 

Statistically, Gordon would have been better off sitting out last season. If all we had to go on was his U19 performance, when he was named MVP, he would be near the top of this last. But Gordon's steal rate didn't translate in Arizona's more conservative defensive scheme, and his sub-50 percent free throw shooting tanked his efficiency. If Gordon can lick his shooting wounds, the rest of his game is star-caliber.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/insider/story/_/id/11102133/nba-draft-marcus-smart-tops-kevin-pelton-prospect-projection-rankings

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Soul Bro and I were discussing that....Here is his criterion for the ranking...

 

 

 

Here's what he said about Smart...ranked number 1

 

 

 

Here's what he said about Payton...ranked number 24

 

 

 

He also said Aaron Gordon has STAR POWER...ranked number 14

 

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/insider/story/_/id/11102133/nba-draft-marcus-smart-tops-kevin-pelton-prospect-projection-rankings

 

The problem with using stats and age to project draft picks is a players potential isn't about what he does his freshman season, it's about what he can't do and small flashes about what he might be able to do. That's why towns is better than Russel and darington hobson is in the d-league

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The problem with using stats and age to project draft picks is a players potential isn't about what he does his freshman season, it's about what he can't do and small flashes about what he might be able to do. That's why towns is better than Russel and darington hobson is in the d-league

 

Yeah. Towns is going to be a good player, but his first 2-3 years is going to have casual fans thinking hes a bust.

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Since we're on the subject of Payton I posed a question to Soul Bro that I'm going to submit to this board.

 

In the history of the NBA has there ever been a team to win an NBA Championship with a PG who shoots as poorly as Elfrid Payton ???

 

Before anyone answers Rajon Rondo ( like Soul Bro ) I'll post his and Elfrid's career stats for you...

 

http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXrXXrondora01.html

 

http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXpXXpaytoel01.html

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Since we're on the subject of Payton I posed a question to Soul Bro that I'm going to submit to this board.

 

In the history of the NBA has there ever been a team to win an NBA Championship with a PG who shoots as poorly as Elfrid Payton ???

 

Before anyone answers Rajon Rondo ( like Soul Bro ) I'll post his and Elfrid's career stats for you...

 

http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXrXXrondora01.html

 

http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXpXXpaytoel01.html

 

What numbers do we want to compare? Rookie numbers with true shooting percentage? Three point shooting? Or are we comparing Payton's rookie year with a championship point guard's year?

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What numbers do we want to compare? Rookie numbers with true shooting percentage? Three point shooting? Or are we comparing Payton's rookie year with a championship point guard's year?

 

I guess he didn't bother to compare Payton's first season with Rondo's or he wouldn't have even posted this. Same old Junkie... oh well, at least this thread has comedic value.

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I guess he didn't bother to compare Payton's first season with Rondo's or he wouldn't have even posted this. Same old Junkie... oh well, at least this thread has comedic value.

 

:shard:

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Tony Parker shot 27% from 3 and 65% on freethrows in 04-05 when San Antonio won it all

 

Michael Ray Richardson never won a championship but had a great career and shot 53% from the line one year.

 

Same deal with baron Davis and Gary Payton.

 

The problem is the list of championship point guards isn't very long over the last 25 years or so.

 

Curry

Chalmers

Parker

Kidd

Fisher

Rondo

Jason Williams

Billups

Avery Johnson

Ron Harper

Kenny Smith

Bj Armstrong

Isaiah Thomas

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Jason Kidd only shot like 36% from the field when Dallas won it's title. Gary Payton played the 3rd most minutes for the 2006 Heat team and he shot like 29% from 3.

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Also 'Smart is better now' is disputable if not plain wrong.

Keep in mind that the quote is from back in mid-January, so "now" was probably unduly influenced by the first few months of Payton's rookie season and early expectations. (Not that Smart was exactly tearing things up at that point either.) It's funny, because I can totally imagine someone posting the quote to demonstrate how much Pelton is shooting in the dark.

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