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Justin Jaudon

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Everything posted by Justin Jaudon

  1. Justin Jaudon

    Grade Our Draft

    Stop. I'm trying to remain calm, and not expect too much of the guy. I'm trying not to imagine J.R. Smith with Kobe's work ethic or Klay Thompson with Kobe's attitude. I'm trying not to see Mike Miller's evil twin with a chip on his shoulder. I'm repeating to myself over and over the mantra: Rudy Fernandez, Swaggy P, O.J. Mayo... Rudy Fernandez, Swaggy P, O.J. Mayo. Now the minute he comes out and drops thirty on somebody, I might go nuts... but for now, don't get me too excited.
  2. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    While the Harris situation probably doesn't belong in this thread, I'll just add that nothing says Orlando cannot trade Harris after matching; and nothing says they cannot trade Vuc or Vic or anyone else if Harris winds up being more valuable in the long run. This team is still in the stage where it is probably bad to let assets leave, especially assets who help your team. Orlando has no one else right now who is likely to start at the 3 in November. He can slide to 4 in a lineup with Mario, and while I don't like that defense, I love that offense. Harris is not as bad a defender as he is sometimes made out to be on this forum (that is not to say he is good, or even average, just not Carmelo bad). The idea that we know for sure what we have in Harris is just silly. He's 22 years old, and he put up good numbers last year on a team with no spacing. I say Orlando should match up 15 (can he get anymore than that?), as long as it's not a super-long-term deal (I doubt anyone is offering him a massive long deal, anyway). It might even be possible to sell him on a short-term deal to try to capitalize on the coming cap explosion. One way or another, at that point he is an asset that has value (as Catman said, he won't regress, so his value at $13-$15 mil is solid). If Mario is ready to start mid-season, and if Harris is unwilling to come off the bench (I don't know why anyone would assume that of him, though), and if he is enough worse than whatever else we have guarding 4's that it makes a difference (at this point a 20-year-old AG and a defensive corpse Frye), then you trade him for... more assets. The more I think about it, the more I start to believe there is no logical reason not to resign Harris. Henny at least says he agrees, for whatever that's worth. Harris' value is comparable to any FA Orlando is likely going to be able to get, and that is taking into account his and others' value to this team. Carroll is a great defender, but he is not as versatile where Orlando needs it (they don't need another 3/2, because they do not have any minutes available at the 2, but a 3/4 works fine), and he is not as good a scorer, and he would not be the bench asset that Harris could be in that role. Millsap is a solid player, and I wouldn't be too upset with losing Harris to gain Millsap except that again he's not as versatile and he wouldn't lead a bench unit at this stage of his career (and Orlando would probably have to pay him ridiculous money to get him here). It goes down the line with guys Orlando could actually get. Harris is the best talent and best fit. If it becomes necessary to move him, then move him. It's still early.
  3. Justin Jaudon

    Grade Our Draft

    I get what you're saying here, I think. But I have to add, if his name was Mario Johnson and he played at Marquette or Maryland and he scored 6 points a game on 15 minutes, he would not be drafted. Now, that said, I don't think he would have been that ill-used in Marquette or Maryland. I think you're right that had he been in college he'd be considered for the number one pick (though I don't think his name would need to be changed). But that is the misunderstanding of most of us Americans about Spanish league basketball. I was at a party last night with my brother-in-law, a really knowledgeable American basketball guy. He hated every foreign guy picked, because none of them scored more than 10 points a game in the Spanish league with guys he believes just couldn't make it to the NBA. His opinion is literally that college basketball is a higher level of competition than the Spanish league (don't get me wrong, he loved Mudiay for whatever reason). His argument is based on the idea that the best foreign players come overseas to America if they can play in the NBA, while the American guys who can't make it in the NBA go to Europe, and that's mostly true. But the misunderstanding comes when assuming that projected talent could beat established talent. Look at it this way: the best player in college basketball in 2013-14, talent-wise, was Andrew Wiggins; he scored 16 a game in the NBA. Your belief from those numbers might be that the best players in college basketball would be decent starters on NBA rosters. But does anyone believe Andrew Wiggins would have gotten the minutes he did and the production out of those minutes if he'd been playing for a contender in the NBA? No. Does anyone believe he could have even done that well in Minnesota as an 18-year-old? Hell, no! Most people don't want to hear it, but J.R. Smith was a better player last year than Andrew Wiggins. Most people don't want to hear it, but the FC Barcelona team that Hezonja played for would have dominated Kentucky; Real Madrid would have lit them up like a damn Christmas tree. And it's not that crazy. Five years from now, those Kentucky players could come back and put the Stone Cold Smackdown on the collected best players of both teams, probably. But those Kentucky players were, this past year, a bunch of young kids playing against other young kids. Championship-contending Spanish League teams are full of guys who are established talents, mature and ready to chew up little 18-19-year old kids. They might not be star NBA players (though most would be or have proven to be solid contributors on NBA rosters), but it is commonly defended by anyone who knows the game that the worst team in the NBA could beat any college team 10 times out of 10. Why? So many reasons physical and mental. But do we think the post All-Star-Game Knicks would beat FC Barcelona or Real Madrid 10 times out of 10? No. Likely the Knicks are the better team, and they'd win a series with those Spanish teams (though, really, even that just doesn't seem right), but they would be close series'. Why? Because it would be games where both teams had established mature players who understood their roles and knew how to execute, only the American team would have (I suppose) slightly more talent. So is that like saying that Hezonja could only get 15 minutes and 5 points a night for the Knicks as a 19-year-old? Not quite. The Spanish League is weird with minutes. with everyone, even the best players. FC Barcelona, the runner-up for the championship, was led in minutes by Justin Doellman, at a whopping 22.6 per game. Real Madrid's team was led by Sergio Llull at the workhorse pace of 24.7. And this is based very much on seniority and level of commitment to staying with the team, two things Mario did not have. And really how could he? He could not have been born earlier, and he clearly wants to be in the NBA. Another thing to remember is that Spanish League teams play at an agonizingly slow pace. The most dominant team in the League (Real Madrid), scored 86 points per game. That's why good statisticians adjust Spanish League players' stats to account for minutes and pace. Finally, why did Porzingis, at a younger age, get more minutes and opportunity than Hezonja? For the same reason that Wiggins got more minutes and opportunity in Minnesota than Kawhi Leonard got as a rookie with San Antonio. Porzingis was not playing for one of the top Spanish League teams, and still he was fifth in minutes (it seems like everyone on that team played right at 20 minutes). In truth, the fact that Mario got burn at all in Real Madrid means he's special. I hope that was helpful in understanding a little bit of how Hezonja can be such a high pick with the numbers he put up in Spain.
  4. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    I was at a draft party and not able to be on here (as much as I wanted to be). For the first time ever Orlando picked the guy I wanted them to (yes, I was sadly in the camp that thought Dwight was going to be a bust in 2004; I was young, and I knew nothing then). It kinda makes me nervous, but everything I read and watch and hear about this guy screams there's something special there. Orlando swung for the fences (and kudos to Henny for not pulling another Babe Ruth and calling his shot). It seems like when he got minutes in Spain he nearly always delivered. I do wonder what this means for Harris and Fournier. I don't worry too much about Super Mario taking Dipo's job, as I see Mario as a 3/2; but if he pans out, I don't see this team keeping both Harris and Fournier. I get that Harris is a versatile forward, and I love his attitude and his personality; but Mario seems almost like a guy you need to start or give major minutes pretty early. Maybe let Harris go, start the season with Fournier at the 3 until Mario is ready. But then how good an offensive lineup could Payton/Dipo/Hezonja/Harris/Vucevic be? I'd love to be able to figure this all out this year, but I don't think you draft Mario Hezonja to be on your bench long-term (like I said, Orlando swung for the fences big time); and how do you sell Harris on grooming to be the 6th man? Do you think you could start him at the 4 next to Vucevic? Maybe you match for Harris and trade him if Mario seems to be coming along. But we knew anyone Orlando drafted would cause this issue of overlapping developing talent. They draft Porzingis and he pans out, Gordon is either bench or a 3 with Harris gone. I actually love that about this team. Say what you will about the fit together so far (the w/l record speaks for itself really), but Orlando has a lot of valuable assets. And they may have just gotten their best one yet. Here's hoping!
  5. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    Every time I see one of these baby carriers, I just hear Eddie Vedder... "Even Flow!"
  6. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    I stand corrected. Perhaps I overestimate people.
  7. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    He looks like he's put on weight since the videos I've seen of him in Europe. Encouraging
  8. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    Seems like if JaVale McGee had played for Kentucky he would have gone #1. I could see it now: "He has absurd athletic ability and he's seven feet tall. He's a safe bet to at least be a defensive anchor you can build around. If he maxes out his talent he's going to be the new Bill Russell!" I'm not saying WCS is going to be JaVale McGee. There are plenty of differences between the two. I'm just saying that athletic ability does not equal basketball intelligence and a drive to be better. Hopefully, if Orlando drafts WCS, it means he has the mind and heart to play in the NBA. What I saw in three years at UK makes me question (not necessarily doubt) his heart, and a little his mind, but I have had less access than any NBA scout.
  9. Justin Jaudon

    Mario Hezonja ?

    Literally fell out of my chair.
  10. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    Seems like a good comparison. Vonleh could still end up something special in a couple of years. I do think Turner has a better post game than Vonleh. Turner may not be much his first year, even with all his skills. It depends on who drafts him. The reason I'm comfortable with Orlando picking him is that I think in a couple years Skiles turns him into an utter beast on D. Dude has just great timing on blocks. To me, he has as much of a ceiling as anyone outside of the top 3 guys in this draft. He just has that one weird issue with his core musculature. The doctors seem to think it's easily fixed, so that's hopeful. Without those questions about his core strength, he'd be a top five pick easily. It all really ends up falling on what GM sees the potential and is willing to take the risk that the time in the gym doesn't pay off to get a guy who could end up an elite two-way PF/C
  11. Justin Jaudon

    Mario Hezonja ?

    Porzingis has more experience than Mario considering he actually played decent minutes on his squad. I think Porz is a project, but he can probably contribute in a smaller role pretty quick.
  12. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    But that's simplistic. What weaknesses you can expect a guy to improve depend entirely on what those weaknesses are. Players improve in virtually every way from when they are 19 years old going into the NBA. But certain things improve naturally much more than others. If a guy has bad mechanics on his jump shot, and shoots poorly from the FT line, it is unlikely he will improve enough to be a good shooter. But Turner has terrific mechanics and shot over 80% from the FT line. So very likely he will improve as a shooter, because the foundation for improvement is very strong. If a guy has a wiry frame and has trouble keeping on weight, likely he will have trouble with strength in the NBA. Turner doesn't have those problems, and he doesn't need to add much to his frame. He's already an effective defensive rebounder and rim protector (elite, as far as college prospects go). Just about every player who goes into an NBA locker room adds strength, if not weight. And he has already been pro-active on figuring out exactly what he needs to do to add the right kind of strength. Again, the foundation for improvement there is strong, and guys with a strong foundation for improvement usually do improve once they are in the NBA. If a guy has no post moves and bad foot work, it is unlikely there will be much improvement. Turner already has two effective post moves. He's 19. Barely. He already has solid footwork and a better post game than most (especially among guys projected to often be used as a stretch 4). He needs to get stronger, but the foundation of his post game is there, and there is every reason to believe he will (not just might) improve. Every 18-year-old (because he didn't turn 19 until after we stopped getting to see him play against competition) needs to improve on his defensive fundamentals. He already has good anticipation on his shot-blocking, he just needs to understand positioning and defensive responsibilities a little better. It is absurd to think those things won't improve. And the biggest thing about this is that those really aren't major weaknesses in Turner's game, just places where improvement is desired. The reason you can't just expect most guys to improve on their weaknesses is that they don't have the foundation to improve. It is absurd to expect Jahlil Okafor to become a consistent jump-shooter, because he doesn't have that foundation. It is absurd to expect WCS to become a dominant post player, because his footwork is terrible and his touch is bad around the basket. It is absurd to expect Frank Kaminsky to become an elite rim protector, because his timing and movement on defense are average to below-average. But Turner is good at all of those things already, he just needs improvement to become elite in the NBA. As an experiment, compare Turner's numbers overall to Towns'. Towns was more efficient (due in no small part to playing closer to the basket), but that is about it. Now I understand there are obvious outliers that do mean something. Turner's numbers against good teams is one. But still Turner managed to block more shots and commit less fouls, all while playing about the same minutes.
  13. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    exactly
  14. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    Turner is sort of the forgotten man so far in this pre-draft process (especially by we here who so desperately want a guy who can be both rim protector and defense-stretcher). I love some of the things I see in him. Most of his problems seem to be about growth physically and mentally. I don't like that he seems to have trouble as a passer. His knees need to check out. Other than that, he needs to gain weight and strength (almost a guarantee at his age), gain consistency on his jumper (also almost a guarantee), and develop his post game. Also, he needs to further develop his awareness and fundamentals on D (almost a guarantee under Skiles).
  15. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    The more research I do on Porzingis the more comfortable I am with the pick if that's the way it goes. Same for WCS. Wow this is a good draft year. I'm comfortable with just about anyone from presumed 5s Winslow/Mario/Porz/WCS to outliers I've heard mentioned here and there like Kaminsky/Oubre/Johnson/Turner. So deep, this draft.
  16. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    The first is a very interesting question. Could WCS develop into a sort of stretch 4? I'm not sure it's any more absurd than Gordon shooting in the low 40s FT % in college and in a few months of training being able to shoot in the 70s in the NBA. Well, maybe it is. WCS never shot a 3 in college, so it's a complete unknown whether he can. I'm not expecting it, but it wouldn't bowl me over. To the second question: I don't know. I doubt Orlando picks a guard without a plan. I understand BPA, but I also understand that Orlando's back court is essentially set with two young guys who have star potential. If they draft a guard at 5, even Russell, I think it's to trade him. I don't see them jumping ship on either of their current guys for a relative unknown, and I don't see three guys that young in a rotation if you want to win. Last year, a rotation of three up-and-coming guards might have worked. This year, you better be darn sure that third guy is special. Because there will be problems, including probably another season of 20-something wins. Just too much youth in your three main ball-handlers. Even now, they need a good vet as a back-up PG. Payton is very good, but he is also still very young.
  17. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    He would need to extend beyond that 18'-20' range. NBA defenses are too quick these days. For it to work as a consistent offensive set he needs to be near the 3-point arc.
  18. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    Interesting thought: Vuc took a decent number of threes in college. If Orlando takes WCS, would we perhaps see Vuc try to extend his range out to NBA 3-point range and become the oh-so-rare stretch 5? If he became effective from out there, I could see the offense working with WCS as the p-&-r man.
  19. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    Read the post again. The entire point is that no player, no matter the skill-set, exists in a vacuum. Dedmon did play limited minutes. And in those minutes he didn't play Orlando's offense was still bad. They had a very young back court and a crew of inconsistent to bad shooters. But those minutes that Dedmon did play at the 4 were notoriously bad for Orlando's offense. What was an offense that had trouble shooting lost its only good outside shooter when Frye was benched (yes, Frye shot well from outside, just abysmally from everywhere else). What was a bad jump-shooting team became a team that had to make jump-shots, because no one was coming out of that lane. Dedmon, like a poor man's WCS, would have less of a negative impact on a team that could shoot consistently from the outside. Now Cat seems to believe Orlando could run the pick and roll through WCS. I do believe he is a solid pick and roll player, as far as mostly defensive big men go. He'll never be D12, but he'll be solid because of his mobility and athleticism. But I question whether that can work without shooters on the perimeter.
  20. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    I'm all for this, so long as Aaron develops as a decent rim protector and outside shooter. He has the athleticism and quickness for shot-blocking, but I'm not sure about his timing. His jumper should come along with work and time. We'll have to wait and see if that's the rout Orlando goes.
  21. Justin Jaudon

    Mario Hezonja ?

    Actually, I'm encouraged by that. I get this visual of Henny at his desk reading these mock drafts, stroking a cat and mumbling "yes... yes. Dance my ignorant puppets."
  22. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    First of all, to say that this team does not need offense from its 4 is absurd. This team has been terrible on offense for 3 years. They need offense from anywhere they can get it. Secondly, accusing everyone who has questions about the WCS idea of looking at the draft through an offensive lens (at least I think that's what you meant to say) is basically ignoring that there are in fact two sides of the game of basketball. It isn't the NFL, where drafting a D-lineman over a RB is a move for defense. Any NBA draft pick will affect both the offense and defense, and so any NBA draft pick (especially in terms of fit) must be looked at with an understanding of how he will affect both offense and defense. Anyone here will agree that WCS would make Orlando a much better defensive team. Those who are questioning the idea are those who fear what his limitations will do to the offensive side of the game, and think it may offset any impact made on the defensive end. There are plenty of places WCS could go where he would not hurt the offense because he could just stay near the basket where he can be useful on occasion and grab offensive rebounds. But can Orlando afford for him to do that? For him to be able to do that, there have to be shooters around him. Orlando currently has two guys who see significant minutes who can shoot consistently: Frye and Fournier. Frye plays WCS' position unless Orlando trades Vuc. Fournier comes off the bench. Which means the starting lineup in Orlando (if Harris is retained) consists of five players who are all most effective from 15 feet and in, and no players who are consistently effective from beyond 20 feet. If his minutes are managed creatively (putting him in lineups with Frye or Fournier as much as possible), it can be arranged so that only 4 of the players need the same area. That is not just a problem. That is a catastrophe. We saw that catastrophe last year with Dedmon and 4. The defense was better but the offense was abysmal, so the team was still terrible. That is why in some very legitimate lines of thinking Porzingis makes more sense than WCS. Porz projects as a better than average rim protector. He won't be guarding 1-5's like WCS; but defense doesn't have to be played that way. Memphis doesn't have Gasol or Zebo guarding little guys, and neither did the Lakers when they started Gasol and Bynum. Nor do the Jazz or the Bulls or the Hornets or the Wizards or the Pacers play mostly lineups with 4's who can guard more than two or at best three positions, all teams in the top 15 in defensive efficiency. There is the issue. Defense can be played very well in Orlando without a player like WCS. A good argument exists that with WCS and no other consistent shooters (which is the way Orlando's team is currently built), the Magic would not be able to be effective at all on offense. So it seems that, in fact, Orlando really does need offense from its 4. It needs both offense and defense. Which is why some people like Porzingis.
  23. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Offseason Thread

    He's a baby, even by today's standards. It's better to look at his first-year production like the days of straight-from-HS guys, given his age. Those guys could sometimes grow up fast, sometimes slow. I'm not saying he's a starter next year, but I'm not counting it out later in the season. And I also don't really like the Odom comparison. Odom was never as quick or athletic as Gordon. The Marion comparison is better.
  24. Justin Jaudon

    Official 2015 Draft Thread

    Literally the only thing that bothers me about WCS is his toughness. He's thin, and he's athletic, and he's finesse. There are big differences between him now and Tyson Chandler now. That said, It took a while for Chandler to be able to handle the NBA beatings down low as well. His defensive skill-set is elite, but I want to see him up against the big boys and not wilt. That is the risk with WCS. It's something that won't be a huge problem, especially if he's guarding 4's mostly, to keep Vuc near the rim for rebounding; but it's something to be aware of.
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