Justin Jaudon

A lot of conjecture based on second-and-third-hand information here. Conjecture's easy: He's attainable based on what? He's under contract for another two years. Logic seems to dictate that if he wanted to leave, he'd go to the best team available. Orlando had the worst record, the Pelicans had the best. Orlando has given no indication they are willing to give up anything to talk to him, and Skiles has been their rumored top guy since they fired Borrego. You just said Chicago seems willing to waite until all the other vacancies are filled to fire Thibs. He doesn't sound all that available.

True, but those who are digging in their heels and shouting for Hennigan's job if Skiles is hired are even funnier. I've liked the guy well enough since he took a team on which his best player came off the bench and Luol Deng was the only other decent player to a 50-win season. It's funny. I bet if the Lakers had made that Kobe for Deng, we'd be talking about Skiles a lot differently.

That's certainly a possibility. Skiles is a viable option who would probably jump at the chance to coach this team. So Chicago should see that they are really out of leverage, if Orlando wants Thibs. By the way, if Orlando does get Thibs, how many photoshops of him over Sidney Poitier do you think we'll see on here? THEY CALL ME MR. THIBS!

Too true. My first post was a bit too vague, I suppose, perhaps lumping you in with those who seem to be shouting NO! NO! NOT SKILES! THE SKY IS FALLING! My point was not to suggest or interpret that you meant Orlando should not get a coach at all. I was honestly interested in your opinion on what Orlando should do. Trying to figure out if you were one of the panic crowd or just unhappy with the prospect of not getting Thibs or Brooks.

Excellent analogy. Still, better to get that "good enough" food and be happy with it than go hungry. If that new hibachi place closes down or the customers there don't leave, you could starve.

But in truth, reductio ad absurdum is sort of my default setting.

Not an interpretation. A request for clarification.

Well, I'm guessing they'd rather have Phil Jackson or Gregg Popovich or Red Auerbach than Thibs, so he would be settling too, by that logic.

Your solution would be to not hire a coach at all? Hey, lets make Green a player-coach. Couldn't be worse than this past year's mess.

Note to Hennigan: If you sign Scott Skiles as the new head coach, do not trade Elfrid Payton for Trey Burke.

Should have just waited for your response, looked it up myself and came to the same conclusions

After looking it up, I'm noticing a pattern with Skiles. He failed his last year in Phoenix because they traded Jason Kidd for me-first volume shooter Stephon Marbury.

Not arguing, just trying to understand all the angles here. Who were these players he burned out? From what I remember of his exit from Milwaukee, they got rid of his players and added guys who were me-first volume shooters who have still never shown any ability to consistently focus on D. Bogut was his big piece, and he was always successful when Bogut was on the floor. I'm not sure what he had in Chicago, other than me-first shooter without any D at all Ben Gordon and some pretty minor pieces to surround him with. I honestly don't remember much about his time in Phoenix.

This is the type of post that makes those of us who aren't panicking over the Skiles rumor wince and wonder. You really think a coach with a winning record who turned three different sub-500 teams into playoff teams is not going to get another shot? You say Orlando is only looking at him because he was a player here. But he is legitimately the most proven available option. I understand having concerns about the guy. But trying to pretend he doesn't deserve to be coaching in the league over some of the bums that have jobs right now is just not reasonable.

Those are two rather big assumptions. I get what you're saying, I do. You believe he's a builder not a winner, and you believe that free agents wouldn't like his personality (though I'm not sure what that is based on, other than pure conjecture and maybe a comparison of his personality to that of Stan VG, who Dwight didn't like). But no options out there have championships as head coach of an NBA team. Rick Carlisle bounced around a few times before winning a title in Dallas, and his attitude and supposed lack of player-friendliness were the reasons he was fired in Detroit and his reputation was hugely questioned after everything that went down in Indiana. Skiles may be in a similar situation in his career as Carlisle was after the Pacers gig.

I think Winslow is a great pick too. If he can develop his off-the-bounce shot as well as he developed his catch-and-shoot jumper in only a few months from high school to college, he has as much upside as Hezonja, because he could be a legit two-way star with a great attitude if that happens. The problems with Winslow’s jumper are interesting. From what I’ve seen and read, it’s just inconsistent. The actual form is pretty solid, he just needs to get more comfortable and consistent with it. He’s still young, and he will have plenty of time to work on his shot. And he fits Orlando’s culture so well. I’d be happy with Hezonja or Winslow (I just think Hezonja is a better bet).

And I wouldn't be too worried about Skiles and Tobes. Stan didn't play JJ his first year either, and their relationship ended up just fine. Skiles was trying to win, and throwing in a rookie with limited understanding of defensive schemes usually causes more problems than it fixes, unless the guy is LeBron talented. Tobes put up good numbers in Orlando, but Orlando had the luxury of not needing to actually win, only to develop players. Orlando didn't all of a sudden start racking up wins with Tobias Harris leading the charge. He put up numbers and they still lost a whole lot of games. Tobias is mature enough to understand that. Sorry, second-year 20-year-old. either way he was very raw.

I advocated Donovan months ago, before Vaughn was even fired, but at the time (Thibs leaving was still just a possibility and Brooks being fired was just a vague rumor) Skiles was my second favorite option. Now that Billy D is no longer available (and the better options of Thibs and Brooks seem to still be unavailable), Skiles seems a good option. Skiles has always been a very good defensive coach. He has consistently built playoff teams out of losers everywhere he’s been. I’m not saying he’s the answer to championship success (though no one is a champion until they are, if you know what I mean), but Orlando is years from that kind of success. Right now Skiles would give them a coach they know will instill a solid culture of preparation and focus on D. The Vaughn hire was about taking a chance on a possible young stud coach who worked under great mentors. He didn’t work out. His rotations were bad and he couldn’t instill a hard-working culture, even with notoriously hard-working players. That happens when you take chances, and the first two years Orlando needed to lose anyway. Hennigan was smart enough to stop the bleeding 2.5 years in, but now the culture and defensive identity has to be reestablished on a truncated timetable, which is exactly what Skiles would do. I'd be plenty happy with Skiles, if Orlando doesn't feel they can get Thibs or Brooks.

By the way, does anyone else think Porzingis looks like someone put Detlef Schrempf in a taffy pull, haircut and all.

At 5, Orlando has a ton of options. I agree with Catman and others that Mario is the best prospect for this team. The guy has an entitled attitude, by all accounts. So does LeBron, Westbrook, Kobe, etc. The first question is does he have the talent-level to back it up. He seems to. In reality, his tools are so translatable to NBA stardom it’s odd that more people aren’t looking at him as a top 3-4 pick. He’s super athletic, a terrific shooter, and capable of being tremendously active when focused. That brings in the real question with this guy, one I’m not sure anyone can answer. How focused is he? If he’s just some dumb kid with a chip on his shoulder, he’s a big risk at 5. But if he has champion focus, he’s the steal of the draft at 5, without question. I think Winslow is the number 2 guy at 5. He shot well from outside in college (I know that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a good shooter, especially with an inconsistent motion to his jump shot, but it means he’s likely capable of hitting threes and possibly able to get good at it). He’s an interesting prospect, with his size, strength, and ability on defense (sounds very familiar, I know). I also love that he’s a willing and capable passer, something I think is a must for Orlando’s team, considering their offensive limitations. It will be interesting to see where his mindset is as a scorer, as I think he could develop into a very good one at the NBA level. But he has to develop as an off-the-bounce shooter, which I think he can do. That mindset is to me the biggest question with him, even including his jump shot. How are his instincts as a scorer going to develop? Porzingis scares the bajeezus out of me. At times he does look like some kind of mix between Bargnani and Paul Gasol (perhaps NBAdraft.net’s best ever NBA comparison), but he also is so thin it’s scary. Not just the lack of weight on him, but the thin shoulders scare me. I’m not saying I don’t see the upside; I’m just scared of his very low floor. He could be a poor man’s Nowitski, or he could be a thinner and weaker Yi Jianlian. I still think Myles Turner is a dark horse prospect. I don’t know as much about him at this point as I will once I’ve spent more time studying him (if he starts to rise), but he seems to have a rare skill set. There are, though, so many questions with this guy. Is he really capable of being a true stretch 4? What is with that limp? Where is his head at? Etc. I don’t think WCS is a good pick for Orlando, unless they are going to let Harris walk and find an elite outside shooter at the 3. I don’t see them replacing Oladipo or Payton for anything less than an established star, and they will need floor spacing. Even if Gordon becomes capable of stretching the floor on offense, I still think they need some spacing (at very least, they will need plenty of it off the bench). I know the UK fans here want a Wildcat on the team so bad, but I just don’t see how it works.

Just throwing some thoughts out there for the draft. To those who think Orlando has to draft either Porzingis or WCS (or pick up a rim protecting 4 in FA) because they absolutely must have a rim protector, I would submit that a rim protector is not quite as much of a must-have as people seem to want to think it is. Atlanta does not have a rim protector. Al Horford is a solid shot-blocker, but I think rim protector is a pretty big stretch. Paul Millsap is not a rim protector either. But their team defense works because they are full of guys (Korver excluded) who can defend multiple positions on the switch. Millsap just guarded LeBron very well for the entire last half of that quarter and they took the Cavs to the last minute in a game in which J.R. Smith hit 8 threes on like 11 shots or something like that. Defending on the switch is becoming more important than rim protection as this becomes more of a jump-shooting league. Vuc needs to continue to improve as a defender, but quick guys on the perimeter who can defend almost interchangeably can cover him if he can just improve his lateral movement a little bit (something he has consistently improved, if only in small increments, over the last three years). Yes, Orlando played better defensively last year with Dedmon on the floor because of rim protection. But we really have no idea how they would have looked with a more refined AG in the lineup at 4, because we don’t have a more refined AG yet. Comparing the defense with a rim protector to a defense without one and still using Frye as a 4 is unfair.

Cat, you talked me off a ledge on draft night, and for that I am grateful. I judged Gordon with almost no real info on him, because all I heard around here is that he was an epically terrible shooter. I can't agree with you on trading Dipo before Harris, though. Before Vuc? Sure. Before Harris? That's an interesting question, and one I'd love to hear more of your opinion on. Harris has never really appealed to me, so I'm trying to see it. He's a consistent scorer, yes; but not a great one. He can't defend anyone. He might be able to defend 4's consistently (albeit still at a sub-standard level) if he gets a bit stronger. He's too slow to guard 3's, which I think I saw you admit to earlier. He's added a fairly reliable 3-point shot to his game, which is fantastic. Is he a second-tier small forward, though? How much more can he improve to get to that point? Vic is not yet a consistent lock-down defender. He's good, plays with a lot of energy; but he needs (just like in every other aspect of his game) to play with more control. I think, with Vic, there's a player comparison I haven't heard much that fits way better than Wade: Manu Ginobili. When he came into the league, Manu was a headache, for Pop and other teams alike. He still kind of leaves you scratching your head at times. He has never in his career been consistent as a shooter. Solid shooter, just like Dipo looks to be turning into. But you might get good Manu or bad Manu, and that has always been the case. But the Spurs have been so much better because of him, and Pop has always known that. He has learned to play more under control as Pop has had more time with him, but his game has always been super fast. He's a leader in his own way, just as I think Vic can be and already to some degree is. He's just not THE guy (I am not generally a fan of the thought process that a cohesive group needs THE guy, but rather can be just as effective with a bunch of guys with leadership skills and low egos and a coach who is THE guy). So should Vic be a sixth man? I don't know; that's a unit question, I think, which would better be answered by a great coach (we don't have one of those, as far as I can see). But that's where I see his career going: a guy who averages his per 36's during his prime at about 20-5-5, depending on how well he's utilized. But AVERAGE is the operative word, because it will always be a matter of good and bad Dipo. Vucevic, to me, is a stud. The more I watch him, the more I think he's not even close to being done improving as an offensive player (and as a defensive player, for that matter; but he'll never be more than average at best there). He reminds me of Marc Gasol on O, in that I think his offensive game will keep improving as his mid-range shot becomes more consistent. Gasol is a better passer, but Vuc is a good passer and consistently getting better (actually, comparing them both at age 24, their assist numbers are very similar, except that Vuc's usage is a bit higher). Vuc is an infinitely better rebounder, which makes up a bit for his below-average defense, because closing out stops with defensive rebounds is part of a defensive possession, which is why their per 100 DRtg are so similar, despite Gasol being a much better actual defender (don't get me wrong, ORtg and DRtg are not my favorite stats, for the obvious reason that Gasol is clearly more useful to a defense than Vuc, regardless of rebounds; just making a point that the gap is a bit less than it seems). Marc Gasol is a first-tier center, first-tier NBA player (why else is Memphis so good? Conley? meh). I don't think anyone here would be in the least bit surprised to see Vucevic averaging 20-12 with 3 assists per game in two years. I think it might surprise most of us more if he weren't. Wouldn't that make him a top-tier center, so long as his defense is something approaching average? All-in-all, I've never been in a more wait-and-see mode than I am right now. The only thing (other than Vuc) that I am even approaching surety on is that Vaughn is not the answer as a coach. Can Elf learn to shoot? I think he can learn to shoot well enough that defenders at least have to be prepared that he might shoot (I suppose they're preparing now, but more in a "hey, if he shoots, make sure to grab the rebound" way); but he will not likely ever be even inconsistently a good shooter. 12 points per game seems a solid ceiling for him. Can Gordon play the 3 consistently? Before the season started, I would have (and probably did many times) said no. With the small sample size of earlier this season, I'm more hopeful that he can. I like the idea of Gordon and Harris on the floor together. I like the idea of them together with Vuc far less, because this team needs some form of rim protector, and I don't think any of those three are ever going to be particularly effective at that. So what is the solution? There are too many balls in the air to make any educated guess. If Gordon can consistently be effective as a three, then I think Towns is the best bet. He's a rim protector and has the potential to be a star scorer as well. But, again, that's two major ifs there, Towns as a consistent scorer being a big one; and what to do about Tobes and Gordon. Can Vic become a more consistent scorer while Elf (hopefully) takes over more of the offensive set-up duties? I think he can, but he needs a coach who knows how to get that out of him. I see Vic as a sponge, and right now Vaughn putting so much on his shoulders seems to be filling his game up with habits that make him less efficient, not more. Will those aliens from Space Jam ever give Harkless his talent back? I'm starting to think even the aliens lost it.

I remember all that. I mentioned it in my original post. I remember being really disappointed until we got Stan (great coach). I explained why I like Donovan, IF he wants to come. I never thought Orlando should feel embarrassed about that situation (Donovan was the one who acted strangely). Billy Donovan is not most college basketball coaches, either. The way he coaches fits the NBA. He lets his players have a lot of freedom within his offensive system (which runs a lot of NBA-style ball screens and off-ball screens). He's been successful managing egos and expectations. His style actually fits the NBA more than college ball, on paper. If he ever does come to the NBA, we'll see if he's the exception to the 'college coaches suck in the League' rule. I just thought maybe you guys had some insight as to why his style wasn't perfect for this Orlando team. If you're holding on to what happened before, I completely understand that. It was bizarre.

Why all the Billy Donovan hate? Or is it me? Say it's not me? Please like me! I'm so insecure! No, I really am curious for your thoughts on Billy D, and why my suggesting he would be a good fit for this team would elicit such responses.

I actually have this weird feeling that Billy Donovan would be the perfect coach for this team. I know he backed out on the team before. I get that it is unlikely to happen. And I know that some people don't like Billy Donovan. But hear me out: The ownership clearly liked him before; so if they were convinced he's committed, I see no reason they wouldn't like him again. He might be more willing to leave Florida, now, since the high of the back-to-back championships is worn down a bit. As to why he's perfect for this team: Watch last year's Gators. Scrappy, low-ego guys who played hard, even if they weren't the most talented team; and they were the best team in the nation who basically just couldn't beat one team. They lost three games, all to Final Four teams . . . without a single NBA draft pick in the starting lineup. Now look at the back-to-back championship team. Sure, it had three NBA players on the roster, two of whom were very good NBA players. But the success of the team was for the same reasons those guys have had success in the League: scrappy, low-ego guys who played hard every night. One of the odd things about Billy Donovan is that he seems to have more success when he has less outside shooters. One really good one and a few guys who can make people play somewhat honest seems best for him. Even when he went to the championship game with Mike Miller, the hallmark of that team was that they shared the ball a ton and played great defense. His less successful years have been when he had players who tried to do too much by themselves (the black spot on humanity that is Matt Walsh, the disappointment that was Kenny Boynton, the only minimal talent on the team that was Nick Calathes). Look at the team in Orlando. What do we want from these guys? What does Hennigan seem to be building? He's bringing in a bunch of scrappy, low-ego guys who are known for work ethic and playing hard every night. They're not great shooters, but they have all shown that they are the types of players who sacrifice for the team. Billy Donovan basically does one thing REALLY well. He gets his guys to buy into and develop as a team. I have a feeling he would love Aaron Gordon, a potential PF who can pass and handle the ball. Billy would have Dipo and Elf hounding guys on the outside, and doing it without that recklessness that other "players' coach' guys tend to see. Billy Donovan creates teams that control the tempo of games. The players in Orlando are perfect for being developed into that type of team. I'm not saying I think this will happen; because i REALLY don't. I'm just saying I'd love to see it.